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Trump trade actions can affect U.S. agriculture in two directions: U.S. tariffs and product exclusions can change the cost or availability of imported food and farm goods, while trading partners’ responses and market-access changes can put U.S. export sales under pressure. USDA reported $171 billion in U.S. agricultural exports and $212 billion in imports in 2025, but those totals do not show that tariffs alone caused the year’s trade changes—or reveal the duty on any particular shipment.
What the 2025 trade figures show
USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) reported that U.S. agricultural exports totaled $171 billion in 2025 and imports totaled $212 billion. Import value exceeded export value by $41 billion. These are annual trade values, not a measure of tariff costs or the net effect of trade policy.
| Measure | 2025 value | What it indicates |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. agricultural exports | $171 billion (USDA ERS, 2026) | Value of agricultural goods sold abroad. |
| U.S. agricultural imports | $212 billion (USDA ERS, 2026) | Value of agricultural goods purchased from abroad. |
| Imports above exports | $41 billion (USDA ERS, 2026) | The difference between the two reported values; it is not a tariff bill. |
ERS said imports fell slightly from their 2024 record and that 2025 tariff policies partly contributed to the decline. That qualification matters: annual trade also responds to prices, exchange rates, supply, demand, and other policies. The totals alone cannot isolate the effect of any one action.
Which U.S. exports are exposed?
Exposure is concentrated by destination as well as by product. Mexico, Canada, the European Union, Japan, and South Korea together accounted for 56 percent of U.S. agricultural exports in 2025, according to ERS. When a large share of sales goes to a handful of markets, changes in access or a trading partner’s response can matter to U.S. sellers.
China and the change in soybean demand
China ranked sixth among U.S. agricultural export markets in 2025. U.S. agricultural exports to China were $8.4 billion, down 66 percent from 2024. ERS associated the decline with reciprocal tariffs and lower demand for U.S. soybeans. That is an attributed explanation, not evidence that tariffs by themselves caused the entire decrease.
The figures identify a meaningful exposure for exporters but do not establish the effect on any particular farm, crop, or business. A national export total can conceal different outcomes across commodities, destinations, and shipment periods.
Which imports may be affected?
U.S. agricultural imports include more than bulk commodities. ERS identifies high-value horticultural goods, fruits and vegetables, alcoholic beverages, essential oils, and tropical products as important import categories. Mexico, Canada, and the European Union are major suppliers; Mexico is particularly important for horticultural imports.
These categories help explain why tariff changes can matter to food traders and buyers even when a product is not widely grown or produced in sufficient quantities in the United States. In its November 2025 fact sheet, the White House said: “Many of the announced trade deals and ongoing negotiations involve countries that produce substantial volumes of agricultural products that are not grown or produced in sufficient quantities in the United States.” The statement helps explain the administration’s change to the scope of reciprocal tariffs; it is not an estimate of resulting prices or availability.
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1Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minute2Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors3Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesWhy the tariff picture varies by product and date
There is no single tariff rate that applies to all U.S. agricultural imports or exports. The White House said in November 2025 that the President modified the scope of reciprocal tariffs and that products no longer subject to those tariffs were added to Annex II of Executive Order 14257, as amended. Exclusion from reciprocal tariffs does not, by itself, establish that a product faces no other duty or trade measure.
Policy records continued to change. The U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) presidential tariff-actions index lists multiple subsequent actions, including an entry for ending certain tariff actions in February 2026. In a July 2026 release, USTR described additional 50 percent Section 338 tariffs on Canada and separate actions concerning motor vehicles, alcoholic beverages, and dairy. That government release describes specific actions and sectors; it should not be read as saying that all Canadian farm goods face the same measure or as an independent estimate of economic effects.
For a shipment, the applicable duty depends on details that broad agricultural trade totals do not supply:
- The exact product and its Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HTS) classification.
- Country of origin and, for exports, destination.
- Shipment date and the tariff action then in effect.
- Any applicable exclusion or trade-agreement eligibility.
For those reasons, a national trade figure or a headline rate is not enough to calculate a shipment’s duty.
How to check trade data and shipment exposure
For broad trends by product and partner
USDA ERS’s Foreign Agricultural Trade of the United States (FATUS) provides monthly, calendar-year, and fiscal-year tables by broad agricultural product group and trading partner. Relevant tables include trade value and volume. The ERS page showed an update on September 8, 2026, with October 9 listed as the next update. Check the table’s period, product grouping, partner, and whether it reports imports or exports before comparing values.
For more detailed product and partner queries
USDA Foreign Agricultural Service’s Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) supports more detailed queries using harmonized coding. Reports for processed-food trade were available through July 2026. Confirm the reported period and product coding; it may not align directly with a broad FATUS category.
For an actual shipment’s duty
Use the current tariff schedule and check the exact classification, origin, date, exclusions, and agreement eligibility. The USTR actions index is useful for following policy changes, but it is not a complete product-level tariff schedule. The sources cited here do not establish a current duty for a particular shipment.
What the figures can—and cannot—tell a farm business
The 2025 data establish the scale and direction of trade, and they show that exports are concentrated in a small number of leading markets. They do not quantify the net causal effect of all Trump trade actions, predict a farm’s future sales, or show how much a given importer pays in duties.
For a business assessing exposure, compare like with like: exports versus imports, commodity or tariff classification, partner country, value versus volume, and the same calendar, fiscal, or monthly period. Then line up the trade data with the specific action and its effective date. Treat a reported change in trade as an observed outcome unless a source explicitly estimates causation; do not assume the policy was the only factor.
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