Before placing a prediction-market trade, read the complete rules for the exact contract and reduce them to one sentence: What event must happen, what evidence counts, by what cutoff, and what happens if the result is delayed, revised, ambiguous, or disputed? Then check how the contract pays, what it costs, and when a determination is expected. A market title alone does not tell you what wins.
Start with the market-specific rules
Open the rules and important-information sections attached to the market—not just the headline or short description. Contract terms can define a narrower or more technical test than ordinary language suggests. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) says customers are entitled to transparent information about contract terms and settlement, and advises reviewing rules specific to the market and contract. Read the CFTC’s consumer guide to prediction markets and event contracts.
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Write down the test in plain language before considering a position. If you cannot identify the qualifying event, evidence, cutoff, and treatment of complications from the rules, you do not yet know what outcome the contract requires.
Identify the event and qualifying outcome
Look for the exact condition that makes the contract resolve to each outcome. A contract may depend on an official announcement, a specified statistic, or another result defined in its terms. Distinguish the real-world event from the formal trigger: an event can occur in common usage without satisfying the contract’s precise condition.
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For a yes-or-no market, record what qualifies as “yes” and what qualifies as “no,” including any stated condition for a void or other resolution. For a market with several outcomes or partial payouts, identify each outcome and the applicable payout rule. Do not assume a binary, all-or-nothing settlement unless the terms say so.
Check the source and evidence hierarchy
Find who or what determines the result: a named agency, data source, oracle, or other mechanism. Then check whether the rules explain which publication or evidence controls, whether corrected or revised data can change the result, and whether there is a fallback if the primary source is unavailable. Filed product terms can specify source agencies and payout language in detail; the CFTC index of designated contract market product terms and conditions illustrates why the governing terms matter.
Do not substitute your own preferred source for the one specified in the contract. If the named source reports a preliminary figure and later revises it, the rules—not an assumption about what seems fairest—determine which figure counts.
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A market can have several relevant times. Record each one the rules or market display provides:
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- Event window or measurement period: the period in which the qualifying event must happen or data must be measured.
- Last trading time: when you can no longer enter or exit a position.
- Expiration: the contract’s stated end point, which may not be the same as the time a result becomes official.
- Determination time: when the venue expects to decide the outcome.
- Settlement timing: when the resolved position or payout is finalized.
These clocks need not coincide. Kalshi’s guidance explains that a displayed close time can differ from the determination time, and that finalization may wait for official data from the named source. Check the market’s own current terms and the venue’s market FAQs rather than assuming trading closes or settlement occurs as soon as the event ends.
Read the exception rules before you need them
Search the rules for what happens when the straightforward outcome does not occur. Relevant cases can include a tie, cancellation, postponement, incomplete data, a corrected result, a partial outcome, or a disputed determination. Terms may prescribe a void, a review, or a last-fair-value procedure, but these provisions are contract-specific.
Make a short note of each exception that could plausibly affect your market. If the rules do not establish how a particular unusual scenario is handled, treat that as unresolved uncertainty—not as permission to assume the most favorable result.
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Understand who resolves the market and how challenges work
The venue’s resolution process is part of the contract risk. For example, Polymarket says its markets are resolved through UMA’s Optimistic Oracle using each market’s pre-defined rules, with a proposal and challenge process. Its resolution guide describes that process. Kalshi describes a finalization process that may wait for official information from a named source. These are venue-specific explanations, not universal rules for prediction markets.
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Read the applicable process for the exact market, including how a proposed result can be challenged and what evidence the process considers. A dispute can affect how long it takes to reach a final outcome; the event’s apparent result is not necessarily the same as a completed settlement.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Work out the payout and net economics
Check whether the contract pays a fixed amount for a winning outcome, offers several possible payouts, or allows partial payouts. Then account for the price you pay and any commissions, fees, penalties, or other costs. The CFTC’s guide discusses these different event-contract structures and advises customers to check costs as well as potential payouts.
For illustration only, the CFTC describes a contract bought for 70 cents that pays $1 if the event occurs: the 30-cent difference is profit before fees and taxes. That arithmetic is not a market statistic or a promise of return. Your result depends on the contract’s actual payout, your entry price, the outcome, and applicable costs.
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A quoted price is not a guaranteed probability or a guaranteed return. It is a market price and can be affected by liquidity, costs, and other factors. Consider the terms and risks rather than treating the price as a certainty about the event.
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Compare contracts only after matching their terms
Two markets with similar headlines may settle differently. Before comparing their prices or treating them as equivalent, line up the substantive terms:
- Event definition and qualifying outcomes
- Named source or resolution mechanism, including what evidence controls
- Measurement window, cutoff, expiration, and determination timing
- Treatment of revisions, cancellations, ties, partial outcomes, and disputes
- Payout structure
- Fees and other costs
If any of these differ, the contracts may represent different exposures even when their titles sound alike. A price comparison is meaningful only after you understand what each contract pays on and how it reaches a final result.
A pre-trade rules check
- Open the exact market: read its full rules and important-information sections, not only the title.
- Write the settlement test: state the qualifying event, evidence, outcome, and cutoff in one sentence.
- Trace the source: note the controlling source or mechanism, revision policy, and any fallback.
- Map the clocks: record the event window, last trading time, expiration, determination, and settlement timing.
- Check edge cases and challenges: find the provisions for unusual outcomes and disputes.
- Calculate the economics: confirm payout structure, entry cost, and fees or other charges.
- Pause if a key term is unclear: do not fill gaps in the contract with assumptions.
This is general educational information, not legal or financial advice. The CFTC’s guidance explains customer rights and event-contract structures, but the current rules for the actual market and venue govern its settlement. Access and regulatory status depend on the particular entity, product, and jurisdiction; the information here does not establish whether a specific market is available to you.
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