Crude oil can affect paint-company costs indirectly, mainly through petroleum-linked chemicals used in some resins, polymers and solvents. The effect is not automatic or uniform: chemical conversion, supplier capacity and inventories, energy, logistics, currency, other raw materials and a company’s ability to adjust selling prices all shape the outcome. To assess a particular company, trace those inputs and compare their cost movement with pricing, volume and margins over the same period.
How crude oil reaches a paint company’s costs
Crude is a starting point for some chemical feedstocks, not a direct price-setter for every ingredient in paint. The European Commission Joint Research Centre’s 2024 draft report says raw materials account for around 40–60% of paint and varnish production costs, citing S&P Global. That is an industry estimate, not a universal share for every company or product.
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PPG Industries explains that its raw materials are several steps downstream from crude oil and natural gas. As a result, crude-price movements may influence materials such as solvents and polymers, but conversion costs and chemical-market conditions intervene. PPG says raw-material prices are also affected by feedstock costs, inventories, capacity, industry activity, foreign exchange, tariffs, and supply and demand.
Other important costs do not move in lockstep with crude. Titanium dioxide and other pigments, additives, energy, packaging and freight can materially affect a paint maker’s cost base. A 2016-era ICRA analysis of the Indian paint sector estimated titanium dioxide at about 30–40% of raw-material cost in that market and period; it described most other materials as largely crude derivatives. That historical, India-specific estimate should not be applied to another geography or to today’s input mix.
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Why the effect can arrive late—or not show up in margins
A change in crude must pass through feedstock production, chemical manufacturing and supplier pricing before it reaches a paint producer. Purchasing contracts and inventory can delay the effect, while shortages or spare capacity can amplify or mute it. The cited sources do not establish one standard lag time.
Even when a company’s input costs rise, its margins depend on what happens to selling prices and product mix. If price increases lag the cost increase, or competition limits what can be passed on, gross margin can narrow. If a company raises prices in time, or input costs fall while selling prices hold, margins may be protected or improve. Volume changes and shifts among product categories also affect the result.
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CPM Group Limited’s 2021 annual report illustrates the risk without isolating crude as the cause. It reported that international crude-oil prices averaged 72% higher in 2021 than in 2020. For the first three quarters of 2021 versus 2020, it cited reported purchase-price increases of 39–51% for titanium dioxide, 45–50% for solvent, 20–36% for resin and 41–45% for emulsion, attributing the ranges to available information from other paint and coatings manufacturers. CPM also described shortages, shipping problems and supply-chain disruption, and said higher costs were not fully passed to customers. Its gross profit margin was 19.8% in 2021 after a reported decrease of 34.7%; the report does not support attributing that outcome to crude alone.
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A practical framework for estimating exposure
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Define the company, market and period
Specify the business and geography before comparing costs. A decorative-paint maker, an industrial coatings supplier and a diversified coatings group can have different product mixes, contracts and input requirements. Keep historical cases in context: CPM’s example concerns a China-focused business during the exceptional 2021 environment, while ICRA’s estimate concerns India and is historical.
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Map the disclosed input mix
Review annual reports and other company disclosures for resins and polymers, solvents, pigments including titanium dioxide, additives, energy, packaging and freight. Separate petroleum-linked inputs from mineral-based or other materials. Note whether the company manufactures resins or other inputs itself, which can change how much it relies on outside suppliers.
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Match input and crude periods
Compare a relevant crude benchmark with the company’s reported purchasing costs or supplier-price disclosures for matching periods. Allow for inventory and contract timing. A crude-price move in one quarter may not yet appear in the materials bought or used in that quarter.
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Separate oil-linked changes from other shocks
Track supplier capacity, demand, freight, energy, foreign exchange, tariffs and shortages alongside crude. CPM’s 2021 account shows why a simple crude-to-margin comparison can misattribute a result when several disruptions happen together.
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Check selling prices, volume and mix
Compare price changes with cost movement, then examine volume, product mix and gross-margin trends. This helps distinguish a company absorbing costs from one recovering them through higher prices, while recognizing that mix and sales conditions can also move margins.
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Evaluate the company’s responses
Look for sourcing diversification, supply agreements, inventory policies, local or in-house resin production, and formulation changes that reduce or substitute costly inputs. These measures can reduce exposure or improve supply reliability, but disclosures may not quantify their effect.
How to compare two paint companies
| Comparison area | What to examine |
|---|---|
| Petroleum-linked exposure | Disclosed raw-material mix, including resin, polymer and solvent use; whether key materials are made in-house. |
| Products | Share and characteristics of decorative, architectural, industrial and solvent-based products, where disclosed. |
| Supply arrangements | Supplier concentration and geography, supply agreements, purchasing arrangements and inventory policies. |
| Pricing and recovery | Ability and timing to adjust selling prices, including any disclosed index-linked contracts, alongside volume and product mix. |
| Non-oil exposures | Titanium dioxide and other pigments, energy, freight, currency, tariffs and supplier capacity. |
| Observed outcomes | Margin, price and volume trends over comparable reporting periods, interpreted with the company’s cost disclosures. |
What current company disclosures can—and cannot—tell you
PPG’s 2025 Annual Report and Form 10-K identifies raw materials as its most significant input cost. It says raw-material inflation had a negligible impact on its operating costs in 2025 compared with 2024 and anticipated relatively flat raw-material costs for 2026. The latter is PPG’s dated company forecast, not a realized result or an outlook for every paint producer. PPG also describes cost-management measures, including sourcing and supply actions.
These disclosures help illustrate how one company discusses its exposure; they do not provide a universal crude-to-paint-cost ratio. The available figures also refer to different measures—raw-material cost, production cost, purchase-price changes and gross margin—and should not be treated as interchangeable. No single percentage, pass-through lag or sensitivity can be assigned to an unnamed company without period-matched disclosures on its inputs, prices and margins.
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Sources
- European Commission Joint Research Centre, Draft Preliminary Report 2: EU Ecolabel paints (2024 draft).
- PPG Industries, 2025 Annual Report and Form 10-K.
- PPG Industries, 2016 Annual Report and Form 10-K.
- CPM Group Limited, Annual Report 2021.
- ICRA, Impact of Soft Global Crude Oil Prices.
- The Sherwin-Williams Company, 2020 Annual Report.
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