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Start with a budget for each place, not a universal income target
There is no single monthly income figure that answers “How much income will I need to retire in a different state?” The answer depends on the household, its housing and healthcare choices, the retirement date, income timing, taxes, and the place itself. A target that works for one household may not work for another, even in the same city.
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Build one estimate per candidate location. Keep the household, retirement date, and lifestyle assumptions consistent across the estimates; change the costs that genuinely differ by place. This makes it easier to see whether a location looks affordable because of lower housing costs, because the household expects to spend less there, or because the estimate leaves out an expense.
For each location, the core comparison is:
- Monthly spending: annual household expenses divided by 12, with periodic expenses accounted for.
- Monthly spendable income: expected income after taxes and recurring deductions.
- Monthly gap or surplus: spendable income minus spending. If spending is higher, identify whether savings withdrawals, work, or expense reductions are intended to cover the difference.
Do not treat a savings balance as monthly income by itself. Any income estimate based on savings needs an explicit withdrawal scenario and an acknowledgment that withdrawals are not guaranteed to continue at the assumed level.
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Set the assumptions before comparing locations
Write down the inputs that should remain the same in every location estimate and those that can change. Otherwise, a comparison can end up measuring different household plans rather than different places.
Keep the household plan consistent
- List the household members and the retirement date or age being modeled.
- Choose a likely housing arrangement for each place: remain in the current home, buy, rent, or downsize. Use the expected total cost, not just a mortgage or rent payment.
- Record transportation assumptions, including whether the household expects to rely on a car or use other local options.
- State the health coverage assumption and how out-of-pocket expenses will be estimated.
- Include any reasonably planned part-time work and note which person expects to earn it.
- Record whether family support, travel, or other recurring commitments are expected to change after the move.
Then make location-specific changes only where there is a reason: different housing costs, taxes, transportation needs, or expected healthcare costs. If a household expects a lifestyle change as well as a move, show that as a separate assumption. That way, the estimate does not mistakenly attribute a spending reduction to the location alone.
Choose a time period and handle irregular bills
Use an annual budget as the working document, even if the decision is expressed as monthly income. Some costs do not arrive monthly: home repairs, vehicle replacement, insurance bills, or travel may be periodic. Include a realistic annual amount for those categories rather than omitting them because they are not part of the usual monthly bills. Divide the resulting annual spending estimate by 12 for the monthly comparison.
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Retirement can change the pattern of spending. Revisit each current expense rather than copying the current budget unchanged. For example, housing may change if the household downsizes; transportation may change if commuting stops or if local errands require a car; and the household itself may change. The estimate should reflect the expected retirement life in each candidate place, not simply the household’s current spending total.
Build an annual spending estimate for every candidate location
Start with actual household spending where it is available, then adjust each category for retirement and the proposed location. A practical budget groups expenses so that essentials, flexible choices, and less frequent bills are visible rather than buried in a single total.
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| Budget category | What to estimate |
|---|---|
| Housing | Rent or mortgage payments, upkeep and repairs, insurance, and property-related costs. Include the likely housing arrangement rather than comparing rent in one place with ownership costs in another without explanation. |
| Utilities and household costs | Utilities and other recurring costs of maintaining the home. Estimate them for the type and size of housing planned. |
| Food | Routine food spending based on the household’s likely pattern, not a national average. |
| Transportation | Expected transportation expenses under the local plan, including the effect of how the household will get around. |
| Healthcare | Coverage premiums and expected out-of-pocket costs. Use assumptions appropriate to the household and location rather than treating regional price data as a medical estimate. |
| Insurance | Relevant recurring policies, including coverage tied to housing or transportation. |
| Taxes | Estimate tax costs as part of the household plan, then also account for them when converting gross income to spendable income. Avoid counting the same tax twice. |
| Travel and family support | Expected travel and financial support for family or others, where applicable. |
| Irregular expenses | Repairs, replacements, and other periodic costs expressed as an annual budget amount. |
| Discretionary spending | Choices that could be reduced if income is tight, such as optional travel or other nonessential spending. |
Separate needs from choices that can be adjusted. This does not mean discretionary spending is unimportant; it means the household can see what would have to change if an income source is delayed or expenses rise. Avoid hiding flexible spending inside a fixed total, because that makes a shortfall harder to interpret.
Use regional price data as a first screen, not a personal forecast
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) publishes regional price parities, or RPPs, that compare price levels across states and metro areas. An RPP is expressed as a percentage of the overall national price level. The all-items measure includes consumption goods and services, including housing rents, which can be an important source of regional price differences.
The BEA release published February 19, 2026, reports 2024 price-level data. Its state-level figures illustrate how averages can differ:
| 2024 state measure | RPP | How to read it |
|---|---|---|
| California, all-items | 110.7 | Regional average price level was 110.7% of the national level. |
| Hawaii, all-items | 110.0 | Regional average price level was 110.0% of the national level. |
| Arkansas, all-items | 86.9 | Regional average price level was 86.9% of the national level. |
| Mississippi, all-items | 87.0 | Regional average price level was 87.0% of the national level. |
| California, housing-rent | 154.3 | Regional average housing-rent price level was 154.3% of the national level. |
| West Virginia, housing-rent | 54.2 | Regional average housing-rent price level was 54.2% of the national level. |
These are regional averages, not a quote for a particular home or household. A state all-items figure cannot tell you whether a particular home is affordable, how much a particular medical plan will cost, or how a household’s own spending basket compares with the average. Use BEA data to identify broad price-level differences and, where useful, screen metro areas as well as states. Then price the household’s actual housing and major expense categories independently.
BEA’s RPP data are a comparison aid, not a retirement budget calculator. A lower all-items index does not establish that every expense will be lower for your household, and the index does not substitute for estimating taxes, coverage, or local housing choices. The useful question is not “Which state has the lowest index?” but “Which location changes the costs that matter most to this household, and by how much under its actual plan?”
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Estimate income one source and one start date at a time
Make an income list for each household member, then record when each source is expected to begin and whether the amount is gross or spendable. The timing matters: the household may have expenses before Social Security or another benefit begins, even if later monthly income appears sufficient.
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Social Security
Use the Social Security Administration’s (SSA) estimate based on the person’s own earnings record rather than a national average. Compare the intended benefit-start age with other available claiming ages. SSA says the monthly retirement benefit increases the longer a person waits to claim, up to age 70. A higher later monthly amount comes with a later payment start and more time for the household to fund expenses before benefits begin.
This is a comparison of timing and benefit amounts, not a universal instruction to claim early or delay. Consider how the gap before benefits begin would be funded, as well as any effects on other household benefits where applicable. The appropriate scenario depends on the household’s own estimates and plan.
Pensions, annuities, work, and savings withdrawals
- Pension or annuity: Include the expected payment and the date it starts. Keep the amount separate from other income so the household can see which sources are carrying the budget.
- Continued work: Include only work income the household reasonably plans to earn, and identify when it is expected to end or change.
- Savings and retirement accounts: Model planned withdrawals as a scenario, not as a guaranteed paycheck. State the withdrawal amount or approach and test what happens if the amount available is lower.
SSA cautions that its online benefit calculator’s estimates expressed in future inflated dollars should not be used to determine other income needs. Keep the basis of each figure clear: a future-dollar estimate and a current-dollar spending budget are not directly comparable unless they are brought onto a consistent basis. SSA also identifies EBRI’s Ballpark E$timate Online as an optional resource for getting a basic idea of savings needs after obtaining a Social Security estimate. It is a planning aid, not individualized analysis.
Convert gross income into the amount available to spend
A gross benefit or retirement-account distribution is not necessarily the amount a household can use for its monthly budget. Estimate applicable federal taxes, relevant state or local taxes, and recurring deductions before comparing income with expenses. The IRS provides guidance for older adults on the tax treatment of Social Security benefits, pensions, IRA distributions, and other retirement income.
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Tax treatment varies by income and location, so do not assume that two candidate places leave the same amount of income available. No state-specific tax comparison is provided here; check the rules for the locations under consideration and the household’s circumstances. If taxes are included in the expense budget, do not subtract them a second time from income.
Medicare Part B premiums may be deducted from monthly Social Security benefits. SSA also notes that Social Security benefits may be taxable. Account for premiums and other recurring deductions once, in a consistent place in the calculation. If a deduction comes directly out of a benefit, distinguish the gross estimated benefit from the net amount that reaches the household.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Calculate and explain the monthly gap
For each location, put the income and spending estimates on the same time basis and compare after-tax monthly income with monthly spending. A simple worksheet can make the result auditable:
| Calculation line | Entry |
|---|---|
| Annual household spending for this location | Sum the annual category estimates, including periodic expenses. |
| Monthly spending estimate | Annual spending divided by 12. |
| Gross income by source and start date | List Social Security, pension or annuity, planned work, and savings withdrawals separately. |
| Taxes and recurring deductions | Estimate taxes and premiums or other recurring reductions, avoiding double counting. |
| Monthly spendable income | Income remaining after the estimated taxes and deductions. |
| Monthly difference | Spendable income minus spending. A negative result is a gap to be funded; a positive result is a projected surplus under those assumptions. |
| Planned response to a gap | Specify savings withdrawals, work, or spending reductions expected to cover it. |
A projected surplus is not proof that a location will remain affordable under every condition. It is the result of the inputs chosen. A gap is not automatically a reason to reject a place either, if the household has a deliberate and plausible funding plan. The important thing is to state what covers it rather than treating the difference as if it disappears.
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Make at least two estimates for each location: a base case using the household’s expected plan and a less favorable case. Change assumptions that could plausibly move the answer, and show how much the monthly gap shifts. This reveals whether the decision depends on one uncertain number.
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Useful less-favorable cases
- Higher housing costs or repairs than expected.
- Higher healthcare premiums or out-of-pocket costs.
- Lower savings withdrawals than the base scenario.
- A later Social Security start date, with the household funding more time before benefits begin.
- Less work income than planned.
Do not alter every input at once without recording what changed. If the less-favorable result becomes difficult to fund, identify the driver: housing, healthcare, benefit timing, taxes, or withdrawals. Then decide whether there is a realistic response, such as a different housing plan, a spending adjustment, or a different location. The exercise is useful precisely because it shows which assumptions deserve further checking.
Compare the locations on the factors that drive the budget
Once each location has a base and less-favorable estimate, compare more than the final monthly total. A concise decision table helps connect the result to the choices that produced it.
| Comparison axis | Question to answer |
|---|---|
| Housing | What housing arrangement is planned, and what are its full expected costs? |
| Healthcare | What coverage and out-of-pocket assumptions are used for this household? |
| Local prices | What does the BEA RPP suggest about the broad price level, and how does the household’s actual basket differ from that average? |
| Taxes | How do the relevant tax assumptions affect the amount of income left to spend? |
| Transportation and support | What are the expected costs of getting around, traveling, and maintaining family or support connections? |
| Flexibility | If a key income or expense assumption changes, what can the household adjust? |
Some inputs require location-specific checking beyond an index: housing and medical estimates are especially household-dependent. Treat an estimate as provisional if it rests on an unverified housing arrangement, coverage assumption, or tax treatment. A regional average can narrow the search, but it cannot complete those checks.
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A practical sequence for reaching a monthly target
- List candidate places and the modeled retirement date. Record household size, likely housing plan, transportation, health coverage, and expected work.
- Build one annual budget per place. Start from current actual spending, adjust line by line, and include both recurring and periodic costs.
- Separate fixed needs from adjustable choices. Mark which expenses the household could reduce if income is constrained.
- Estimate income by person, source, and start date. Use personal SSA estimates and list pensions, annuities, planned work, and savings withdrawals separately.
- Convert income to spendable amounts. Estimate relevant taxes, Part B premiums, and other recurring deductions without counting any expense twice.
- Compare monthly totals. Divide annual spending by 12 and compare it with after-tax monthly income, recording any gap and its intended funding source.
- Run a less-favorable scenario. Adjust one or more important assumptions and note which location costs or income sources drive the difference.
- Verify the inputs that drive the decision. Get household-specific housing, healthcare, and tax estimates for the places still under consideration.
The resulting monthly target is not a universal retirement number. It is the spending estimate for a specific household in a specific place, paired with a specific income and withdrawal plan. Keep the assumptions alongside the number; without them, the target is difficult to interpret or update.
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