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The latest completed quarter in the available record is the second quarter of 2026. The company’s results show stronger reported growth but continued soft underlying demand, making the quality and durability of that growth more important than any single headline EPS figure.
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What a complete Sherwin-Williams analysis should answer
Begin with six questions, in this order:
- What period is being measured? Distinguish fiscal 2025 from the latest quarter and identify what was known on the analysis date.
- What did the company report under GAAP? Use GAAP revenue, operating income, net income and diluted EPS as the accounting baseline.
- What does the adjusted presentation remove? Read the reconciliation instead of treating non-GAAP EPS or EBITDA as a replacement for GAAP.
- Where did growth come from? Separate price, volume, mix, new accounts, share gains and acquisitions by segment.
- Did profit become cash? Compare operating cash flow with earnings, working-capital movements and capital spending.
- What does the share price assume? Use a price and date, define the EPS measure, and test whether the implied growth and margin assumptions are reasonable.
This sequence prevents a common mistake: calling the business stronger simply because adjusted EPS rose, without checking demand, acquisition effects, cash conversion or the valuation already embedded in the stock.
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The company’s 2025 annual report and official earnings releases are the primary documents for this work. The annual report provides the complete income statement, balance sheet, cash-flow statement, accounting policies, debt details and acquisition notes. Earnings releases provide the most current quarter, management commentary, segment information and guidance.
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As of the information available on October 9, 2026, the second quarter of 2026 was the latest completed quarter. The company’s press-release calendar scheduled the third-quarter 2026 results for October 27, 2026. A published valuation or earnings article should be refreshed after that release because guidance, estimates, the share price and the latest twelve-month denominator can all change.
Keep the fiscal-year and quarterly comparisons separate. A full-year change can hide a recent inflection, while one quarter can be distorted by seasonality, weather, timing of price increases, working-capital movements or acquisition accounting.
2. Present GAAP and adjusted earnings side by side
Sherwin-Williams’ 2025 results illustrate why both measures belong in the analysis. Consolidated net sales increased, but GAAP diluted EPS declined while adjusted diluted EPS increased. That divergence cannot be interpreted correctly without reading the company’s reconciliation and identifying every excluded item.
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| Measure | FY2025 | Change versus prior year | How to use it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | $23.57 billion | Up 2.1% | Starting point for demand and pricing analysis |
| GAAP diluted EPS | $10.26 | Down 2.7% | Accounting result, including acquisition-related amortization and other GAAP items |
| Adjusted diluted EPS | $11.43 | Up 0.9% | Non-GAAP view that must be reconciled to GAAP |
| Operating cash flow | $3.45 billion | 14.6% of sales | Cash-generation check; not the same as free cash flow |
Adjusted EPS is useful when it isolates recurring operating performance, but the definition is set by the company and can change the apparent growth rate. Treat the reconciliation as an analytical document: list the excluded costs, ask whether they are genuinely unusual, and consider whether similar charges recur after acquisitions or restructuring. Do not substitute the adjusted figure for GAAP EPS in a valuation calculation without labeling the denominator.
The second quarter of 2026 provides a more recent cross-check:
| Q2 2026 measure | Reported result | Year-over-year change | Qualification |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | $6.79 billion | Up 7.5% | Consolidated quarter |
| Net income | $843.6 million | Up 11.8% | GAAP net income |
| GAAP diluted EPS | $3.43 | Up 14.3% | Includes GAAP acquisition and other accounting effects |
| Adjusted diluted EPS | $3.70 | Up 9.5% | Non-GAAP measure |
| EBITDA | $1.43 billion | Up 13.8% | 21.1% of sales; unadjusted EBITDA margin |
| Adjusted EBITDA margin | 21.5% | Up 60 basis points | Adjusted margin, not interchangeable with the 21.1% EBITDA margin |
Notice that GAAP EPS grew faster than adjusted EPS in this quarter, the reverse of the full-year 2025 pattern. That is precisely why a single preferred series can mislead. Report both, explain the reconciliation, and state which one is used for each comparison.
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Acquisition accounting can distort year-over-year comparisons
Fiscal 2025 included the Suvinil acquisition. The second-quarter 2026 results also included Suvinil and Valspar-related amortization. These items affect reported earnings, margins and comparability. The company’s 2026 guidance explicitly includes acquisition-related amortization and restructuring expenses, so an analyst should not compare the guidance with an adjusted historical series without making the definitions consistent.
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3. Determine whether sales growth is broad, concentrated or purchased
Consolidated revenue growth is only the first layer. Sherwin-Williams reports three operating segments with different customers, products, demand cycles and margin profiles. Read segment revenue and segment profit together, then ask whether growth came from existing operations or from acquired revenue.
| Segment | FY2025 sales pattern | Main drivers described by management | Interpretive point |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paint Stores Group | Growth | Protective and marine coatings, residential repaint and commercial activity | Assess whether gains reflect end-market volume, pricing, account wins or mix |
| Consumer Brands Group | Growth, with acquisition contribution | Suvinil drove growth; core North American do-it-yourself demand remained soft | Separate Suvinil’s contribution from underlying North American demand |
| Performance Coatings Group | Sales were flat | High-single-digit Packaging growth and record new-account growth offset softer core demand elsewhere | Flat total sales can conceal strong pockets and weakness in larger categories |
In the second quarter of 2026, management attributed improvement across all three reportable segments to growth investments, account wins, increased share of wallet and pricing. Those explanations are management’s view, not an independent decomposition of the reported increase. Test them against several quarters of segment revenue, profit, volume commentary and customer indicators. A one-quarter account win can be valuable, but it does not prove a durable demand recovery.
Use a same-store versus acquired-growth bridge
For each segment, build a simple bridge from prior-year sales to current sales:
- Existing-business volume: customer purchases at comparable operations.
- Price realization: list-price changes and the portion actually retained after discounts and rebates.
- Mix: movement toward higher- or lower-value products, channels or geographies.
- New accounts and share of wallet: incremental business from existing or newly won customers.
- Acquisition contribution: revenue added by Suvinil or another acquired operation.
- Foreign-exchange and other effects: disclose them when the release identifies them.
If the release does not quantify each component, do not manufacture a bridge. Label the driver as qualitative and wait for detailed filings or later disclosures before assigning a percentage.
4. Explain margins through costs, price, volume and mix
Margin analysis works best at three levels: gross margin, segment operating profit margin and EBITDA margin. Each answers a different question. Gross margin shows product economics after cost of goods sold. Segment margin reveals where operating leverage or weakness occurs. EBITDA can help compare operating performance before depreciation and amortization, but adjusted EBITDA adds another layer of exclusions.
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Raw materials and pricing
In the second quarter of 2026, management said raw-material inflation pressured gross margin and that the company implemented pricing actions to offset it. This identifies the mechanism but does not establish how much inflation was recovered. A disciplined model tracks:
- Input-cost inflation or deflation by major material category.
- Timing of announced versus realized price increases.
- Discounting, rebates and contract resets that reduce realized price.
- Volume response after price changes.
- Product and channel mix, including the contribution of faster-growing businesses.
- Manufacturing utilization and other fixed-cost absorption.
Do not describe pricing as a complete offset unless the company supplies a quantified bridge. Revenue can rise because of price while unit volume falls; gross margin can expand even as demand weakens if price and mix are favorable. Conversely, a strong sales quarter can produce little profit if raw-material costs rise faster than realized price.
Segment mix matters to the consolidated margin
Paint Stores Group, Consumer Brands Group and Performance Coatings Group serve different markets. A shift toward a higher-margin segment can lift the consolidated margin without any improvement inside the other businesses. The reverse is also possible. Compare each segment’s sales growth, profit growth and margin direction before drawing a company-wide conclusion.
For Q2 2026, keep the company’s 21.1% EBITDA margin separate from the 21.5% adjusted EBITDA margin. The 60-basis-point increase applies to the adjusted measure; it is not evidence that unadjusted EBITDA margin expanded by the same amount.
Look for operating leverage, not just percentage changes
When sales grow, ask whether incremental profit grows faster or slower than revenue. Faster growth suggests operating leverage, favorable mix or effective pricing. Slower growth can indicate input inflation, labor and freight pressure, promotional spending, integration costs or weak volume. Use reported segment profit and the reconciliation tables rather than inferring leverage from EPS alone.
5. Test earnings against operating cash flow and capital needs
Profit is not the same as cash. Fiscal 2025 operating cash flow was $3.45 billion, equal to 14.6% of sales. Compare that figure with net income, then inspect changes in receivables, inventory, payables and other working-capital accounts. A strong cash year can reflect temporary working-capital release; a weak cash year can reflect inventory investment ahead of demand.
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Keep three measures distinct:
- Operating cash flow: cash generated by operations before investing and financing activities.
- Free cash flow: operating cash flow less capital expenditures; the exact company definition should be stated.
- Adjusted earnings: a non-GAAP profit measure that does not itself represent cash available to shareholders.
The company reported approximately $2.45 billion returned to shareholders through dividends and repurchases in 2025 and continued its run of dividend increases. Its investor overview, using figures as of December 31, 2025, reported $14.3 billion of net operating cash over five years and 47 consecutive annual dividend increases. These are historical company-published measures, not forecasts of future returns. Check whether distributions were funded by recurring operating cash after capital spending and whether borrowing or acquisition spending changed the balance-sheet risk.
A practical cash-conversion checklist
- Start with GAAP net income for the same period.
- Compare operating cash flow with net income and calculate the ratio.
- Read the cash-flow statement for receivables, inventory, payables and other large movements.
- Subtract capital expenditures to estimate free cash flow using a clearly stated definition.
- Compare free cash flow with dividends, repurchases, acquisitions and debt repayment.
- Investigate persistent gaps rather than explaining them away with one quarter’s timing.
6. Read guidance alongside the demand commentary
The company’s initial fiscal 2026 outlook called for low-to-mid-single-digit consolidated sales growth and adjusted diluted EPS of $11.50 to $11.90. After the second quarter, management raised adjusted diluted EPS guidance to $11.80 to $12.20 and provided GAAP diluted EPS guidance of $10.92 to $11.32. The guidance includes acquisition-related amortization and restructuring expenses, so the adjusted and GAAP ranges must not be mixed.
| Guidance point | Earlier FY2026 outlook | Q2 2026 outlook | How to interpret the change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consolidated sales | Low-to-mid-single-digit growth | Not restated in the cited Q2 figures | Verify the latest release for any change |
| Adjusted diluted EPS | $11.50–$11.90 | $11.80–$12.20 | Raised range; non-GAAP |
| GAAP diluted EPS | Not stated in the initial range cited | $10.92–$11.32 | Includes acquisition amortization and restructuring expenses |
CEO Heidi G. Petz described the backdrop in the fiscal 2025 release as “a continuation of the softer-for-longer demand environment we have previously described.” Management expected those conditions to persist well into the second half of 2026 based on customer sentiment and macroeconomic indicators it tracks. In the second-quarter release, Petz said there had been “no meaningful improvement in demand,” while sales growth reflected investment, new-account wins, share of wallet and pricing actions.
These statements create an important distinction: guidance can rise because execution, pricing or acquisition contributions are better even while end-market demand remains subdued. Treat the outlook as management’s forecast, then test it against order trends, segment volume, price realization, raw-material costs and the gap between reported and adjusted earnings.
7. Value the shares with a dated, consistent denominator
Calling SHW cheap or expensive from one P/E ratio is not a complete valuation. First record the share price and date. Then specify whether the denominator is trailing GAAP EPS, forward consensus GAAP EPS, or company-adjusted guidance. Finally compare the result with a historical range and relevant peers calculated on the same date and accounting basis.
| Snapshot | Share price/date | Trailing P/E | Forward P/E | Important limitation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| StockAnalysis | $321.03 close, October 8, 2026 | 29.06 | 24.56 | Vendor calculation and timestamp; refresh on publication day |
| Stock Rover | Report dated October 4, 2026 | 29.5 | 23.5 | Different date and inputs; not synchronized with the StockAnalysis snapshot |
The two snapshots are close but not identical, likely because of timing and calculation inputs. Do not average them or present them as one definitive multiple. Recalculate after recording the current price and the exact EPS series. For example, a price divided by company-adjusted guidance is not the same claim as a price divided by trailing GAAP EPS.
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Translate the multiple into assumptions
A forward P/E asks what growth and profitability the market expects. At a relatively high multiple, investors generally need confidence in some combination of durable sales growth, stable or expanding margins, reliable cash conversion, manageable leverage, successful acquisition integration and lower cyclicality. If demand remains soft, the analyst should identify which other assumption—price, mix, cost control, new accounts or acquisitions—supports the earnings forecast.
The available materials do not establish Sherwin-Williams’ normalized historical valuation range or an aligned peer comparison. Therefore, the dated ratios above are context, not a definitive conclusion that the stock is overvalued or undervalued. Add historical and peer data only when the price date, fiscal period, accounting basis and estimate source match.
8. A repeatable worksheet for each earnings release
- Freeze the date. Record the latest completed quarter, fiscal year, share price and next scheduled report.
- Copy the GAAP income statement. Capture sales, gross profit, operating income, net income and diluted EPS.
- Build the adjustment bridge. List every reconciling item between GAAP and adjusted EPS or EBITDA and mark whether it has recurred.
- Map the segments. Record sales, profit, margin direction and the company’s stated drivers for Paint Stores Group, Consumer Brands Group and Performance Coatings Group.
- Separate growth sources. Classify each driver as price, volume, mix, account wins, share of wallet, acquisition, foreign exchange or other.
- Reconcile margins. Compare gross, segment and EBITDA margins, keeping adjusted and unadjusted percentages separate.
- Check cash. Compare operating cash flow with net income, inspect working capital, subtract capital spending and review shareholder returns.
- Compare guidance with outcomes. Track the original range, any revision, the actual result and the reason for the change.
- Refresh valuation. Use the same date and denominator for trailing, forward, historical and peer comparisons.
- Write the conclusion as a conditional judgment. State what is working, what remains unproven and which next disclosure would confirm or challenge the thesis.
Common analytical mistakes and how to avoid them
- Using adjusted EPS alone: show GAAP EPS and the reconciliation first.
- Calling all revenue organic: identify Suvinil and other acquisition contributions separately.
- Treating price as volume: ask whether unit demand improved or whether revenue rose mainly from pricing.
- Combining EBITDA margins: do not equate the 21.1% Q2 unadjusted margin with the 21.5% adjusted margin.
- Assuming pricing fully offsets inflation: management said actions were implemented, but the release does not by itself quantify the recovery.
- Ignoring segment mix: consolidated margin can move because the mix changes even if segment economics do not.
- Calling operating cash flow free cash flow: deduct capital expenditures and state the definition.
- Mixing valuation dates: a ratio from October 4 cannot be combined casually with an October 8 price.
- Confusing guidance with a guarantee: management’s range depends on demand, costs, pricing, execution and acquisition integration.
What would change the investment view
A more constructive view would be supported by evidence that demand improves beyond management’s “softer-for-longer” description, volume grows alongside price, segment gains broaden beyond isolated categories, raw-material inflation moderates, and operating cash flow remains strong after working-capital and capital-spending needs.
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The next quarterly release should be read for the same variables: organic versus acquired sales, realized pricing, volume and mix, segment profit, gross-margin drivers, GAAP-to-adjusted reconciliations, operating cash flow and the updated guidance range.
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