For 2026, U.S. employer surveys put planned salary-increase budgets at about 3.4% to 3.6%. That is a pool employers expect to use for raises—not a promise that every employee will receive that percentage. There is no single official statistic for the average raise received by every American worker. The closest broad labor-market comparison is the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Employment Cost Index: civilian wages and salaries rose 3.2% over the year ending June 2026.
What is the average raise in America?
The answer depends on what “average raise” means. Recent employer surveys put U.S. salary budgets in the mid-3% range: Payscale reported an average expected increase of 3.5% for 2026, The Conference Board reported a planned 2026 salary budget of 3.4%, and WorldatWork reported a predicted mean budget of 3.6%. These are survey results with different respondent pools and definitions, not a census of individual workers.
For a broad measure of labor costs, the BLS reported that civilian wages and salaries increased 3.2% over the 12 months ending June 2026. The Employment Cost Index measures changes in employer labor costs using a fixed basket of labor; it does not track the raise received by a particular worker. See the BLS Employment Cost Index.
How the 2025 results compare with 2026 plans
| Measure | 2025 result | 2026 figure | What it represents |
|---|---|---|---|
| Payscale U.S. survey | 3.6% average actual total base-pay increase | 3.5% average expected increase | Employer survey responses; Payscale reported U.S. total-sample counts of 1,081 for 2025 actual and 1,003 for 2026 expected. Payscale survey |
| The Conference Board | 3.4% reported increases | 3.4% average planned salary budget | Employer survey results; the 2026 budget was described as in line with reported 2025 increases. The Conference Board |
| WorldatWork | 3.7% actual mean salary-increase budget | 3.6% predicted mean salary-increase budget | Employer survey results, with the 2026 figure a prediction. WorldatWork survey summary |
| BLS Employment Cost Index, civilian wages and salaries | Not stated here; source reports the 12 months ending June 2026 | 3.2% increase over the year ending June 2026 | A broad measure of labor-cost change, not a salary-budget forecast or an individual raise. BLS |
Survey results are not perfectly interchangeable: each organization uses its own sample and definitions. Within a survey, check whether a figure is an actual increase, an expected increase, or an employer budget before comparing it with another number.
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Why a salary budget is not the same as your raise
An employer’s salary budget is the total pool available for increases across a workforce or employee group. Employers can distribute that pool unevenly, and some workers may receive more, less, or no increase. A survey average therefore cannot predict an individual employee’s raise.
Merit increases are narrower than total salary budgets. The Conference Board reported merit-based pay growth of 3.0% in 2025, compared with 3.5% in 2024. A total budget may include several types of increase, so a merit-only figure should not be treated as the overall raise average. The Conference Board’s pay-raise findings.
How wage growth and forecasts fit in
The BLS ECI provides a separate economy-wide perspective. In addition to the 3.2% increase in civilian wages and salaries over the year ending June 2026, the index showed total compensation up 3.4% and benefit costs up 3.8%. Those figures describe changes in employer labor costs across the measured workforce, not what each worker received.
Forecasts are another distinct category. The Congressional Budget Office projected private-industry ECI wages and salaries to grow 3.5% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027. These are projections, not final outcomes or individual raise amounts. CBO’s economic projections.
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1Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minute2Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problems3Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesDoes a 3.5% raise improve purchasing power?
Not necessarily. A raise is nominal pay growth: it measures the increase in dollars before accounting for changing prices. To judge purchasing power, compare wage growth with inflation over the same period. If prices rise faster than pay, real purchasing power falls even when the paycheck gets larger. The Federal Reserve’s July 2026 report noted that wage gains may be outpaced by inflation. Read the Federal Reserve report.
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What to take from the current figures
- Use the mid-3% range as a guide to employer salary budgets for 2026, not as a guaranteed raise for an individual.
- Identify whether a figure is an actual increase, a planned budget, a merit-only measure, a broad wage index, or a forecast.
- Compare purchasing power by looking at wage growth and inflation for matching periods.
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