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Re:

How Much F1 Could Lose From the Cancelled Bahrain and Saudi Arabian Grands Prix

Analyst estimates put F1’s lost revenue from the cancelled Bahrain and Saudi Arabian Grands Prix at $190–200 million, but no official final net-loss figure has been disclosed.
From TheFinanceBase Team3 min to read
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The best reported estimate is that Formula 1 faced about $190 million to $200 million in lost revenue and roughly $80 million in EBITDA impact after the Bahrain and Saudi Arabian Grands Prix scheduled for April 2026 were cancelled. Those are estimates attributed to Guggenheim Partners analysis by The National, not final figures disclosed by Formula 1 or Liberty Media.

What do the headline figures mean?

The reported $190 million to $200 million estimate covers lost revenue associated with the two cancelled race weekends. The roughly $80 million figure is the estimated effect on EBITDA—earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. These are different financial measures and should not be added together.

The National separately reported about $115 million in combined hosting fees for the two races. Hosting fees are one component of the commercial picture, not a substitute for the broader lost-revenue estimate or a confirmed net loss. The figures were attributed to Guggenheim Partners analysis; F1 did not publish them as an official cancellation bill.

Why were the races cancelled?

On March 14, 2026, Formula 1 announced that the Bahrain and Saudi Arabian Grands Prix would not take place in April because of the ongoing situation in the Middle East. F1 said it had made the decision after evaluation and consultation with the FIA and the race promoters, and that there would be no replacement events in April. The accompanying Formula 2, Formula 3 and F1 Academy rounds were also cancelled. F1’s announcement is available at Formula 1.

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Formula 1 President and CEO Stefano Domenicali called the decision difficult but the right one given the situation. FIA President Mohammed Ben Sulayem said the organization would put the safety and wellbeing of its community and colleagues first.

How do the published estimates compare?

Figure What it measures Attribution and timing
$190–200 million Estimated lost revenue from the cancelled race weekends Guggenheim Partners analysis, as reported by The National after the cancellations
About $80 million Estimated EBITDA impact Guggenheim Partners analysis, as reported by The National after the cancellations
About $115 million Estimated combined hosting fees for Bahrain and Saudi Arabia The National’s report; this is a fee component, not the total estimated revenue impact
More than £100 million Expected commercial impact BBC Sport’s forecast before F1’s formal cancellation announcement; different currency and potentially different scope

BBC Sport’s earlier forecast should not be converted or combined with the later dollar figures as though both measured the same thing. It was made before the official announcement and used a different framing. Comparisons also require distinguishing revenue, EBITDA and hosting fees, as well as analyst estimates from company disclosures.

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Why $115 million in hosting fees is not automatically the final loss

A cancelled race does not necessarily mean every contracted fee becomes an unrecoverable loss—or that every planned payment is still collected. Liberty Media’s SEC filing says whether a promoter owes race-promotion fees when an event is cancelled for factors beyond F1’s control depends on the applicable agreement. The filing also describes possible broadcast-fee reductions if an event count falls below contract-specific thresholds and likely sponsor-fee reductions when a cancelled race is not substituted, subject to contract terms. See Liberty Media’s SEC filing.

That contractual variation is why the estimated hosting fees should not be treated as a simple final net-loss calculation. The larger revenue estimate and EBITDA estimate are also not the same as a final audited accounting of what F1 ultimately retained or lost.

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What did Liberty Media later report?

Liberty Media’s second-quarter 2026 results described a first half that reflected a 22-race calendar. Eight races had been held through June 30, compared with 11 in the same period of 2025. After the Malaysia arrangement was announced, Liberty assumed a 23-race calendar for 2026—one fewer race than in 2025—and cited the absence of the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix in April. It discussed lower year-over-year revenue and cost recognition from calendar differences, but did not provide a standalone final amount for the cancellation loss. The company release is at Liberty Media.

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How the later Malaysia race changes the calendar context

On July 26, 2026, F1 announced that Malaysia would host a Bahrain Grand Prix at Sepang on October 2–4, subject to final agreements and World Motor Sport Council approval. F1 described the arrangement as preserving a Grand Prix that otherwise would not have happened. This was a later calendar development: it did not mean the original April Bahrain race took place in Bahrain, and the announcement itself does not verify the earlier loss estimate. See Formula 1’s announcement.

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