The Tool Desk
Outbyte Driver Updater FREEFix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesFind Drivers →Outbyte PC Repair FREERepair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsFix Now →A strong U.S. dollar can make U.S. farm goods more expensive for overseas buyers, putting pressure on agricultural exports. USDA says the dollar contributed to the decline in export value, alongside falling global commodity prices and shifts in demand; it does not isolate the dollar’s share of that decline.
How does a strong dollar affect U.S. agricultural exports?
When the dollar strengthens against a buyer’s currency, that buyer generally needs more of its own currency to purchase a U.S. product priced in dollars. Unless the seller lowers the dollar price enough to offset the exchange-rate move, the product may become less price-competitive. Buyers could then reduce purchases or turn to suppliers elsewhere.
The effect is not automatic or one-for-one. It depends on the product, the trading partner, how goods are priced, and conditions in competing supplier countries. A stronger dollar can be a headwind without determining how many tons are shipped or what exporters ultimately earn.
The same currency conditions can work in the opposite direction for imports. USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) says a strong exchange rate has contributed to growth in high-value agricultural imports, along with a strong U.S. economy and consumer demand. That observation does not, by itself, explain the overall agricultural trade balance.
#1 Best Overall
What happened to U.S. agricultural exports?
USDA ERS reports that nominal U.S. agricultural export values peaked in 2022 and fell to $171 billion in 2025. The figure is export value, not an inflation-adjusted measure or a measure of physical shipment volume. ERS identifies falling global commodity prices, a strong dollar, and shifting demand for some commodities—including corn and soybeans—as contributors to the decline. It does not quantify the dollar’s individual contribution. USDA ERS’s export-value summary
Over the longer period from 2015 through 2025, U.S. agricultural exports grew at a compound annual rate of 2.3 percent. ERS points to global competition, a strong dollar, and trade barriers as headwinds to export growth. A decade-long growth rate and a recent decline describe different periods; neither establishes that currency movements alone explain the outcome. USDA ERS Agricultural Exchange Rate Data Set
Why export value and export volume can tell different stories
Export value combines the quantity sold with the price received. A fall in value can therefore reflect lower prices, fewer shipments, or both. For example, falling world commodity prices can reduce the dollar value of sales even if the physical volume exported changes little. Exchange rates can affect competitiveness and demand, but value data alone cannot establish a change in shipment volume.
To see the distinction in practice, compare trade values with reported quantities for the same commodity, destination, and time period. USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Trade of the United States (FATUS) reports trade values and volumes by country and commodity. USDA ERS FATUS
Recommended Free Tools
Which markets and commodities changed in 2025?
The export picture varied by destination and product. In 2025, the top five markets received 56 percent of U.S. agricultural exports. China dropped to sixth place: exports there fell 66 percent from 2024, to $8.4 billion. That destination-specific decline is not evidence that the exchange rate alone caused the change. USDA ERS’s 2025 market summary
Commodity results also diverged: soybean exports fell from the previous year, while corn, tree nut, and dairy exports grew. These differences underscore why a broad dollar measure cannot substitute for examining individual products and markets. USDA ERS’s 2025 commodity summary
Rank #4
How USDA measures exchange-rate effects
A trade-weighted, or effective, exchange rate averages the dollar’s value against currencies of major trading partners. Each currency receives weight according to its importance in trade. A broad index can summarize general currency conditions, but commodity-specific indexes are more directly related to particular export markets and competitors.
- Commodity market indexes weight countries by their shares in U.S. exports of the commodity.
- Competitive indexes weight countries by their shares in global exports of a commodity. A declining competitive index suggests the United States is becoming more competitive relative to other exporters.
ERS’s Agricultural Exchange Rate Data Set provides nominal and real exchange rates for 79 countries plus the European Union, as well as commodity-specific trade-weighted indexes. The data are quarterly and draw on sources including the IMF, USDA Foreign Agricultural Service GATS, and FAOSTAT. ERS lists the set as updated August 27, 2026. USDA ERS Agricultural Exchange Rate Data Set and methodology
How to check whether currency moves line up with trade changes
- Choose a product and destination. Avoid comparing a broad dollar index with a change in one commodity’s exports if a commodity-specific measure is available.
- Check the exchange-rate series. Use the ERS data set to identify the relevant market or competitive index, and note whether it is nominal or real.
- Compare trade over the same period. Use FATUS values and volumes for the same commodity, destination, and dates.
- Consider other explanations. Commodity prices, global supplies, demand, trade policy, economic growth, population and income, and government support can also affect agricultural trade.
This comparison can show whether exchange rates and trade outcomes moved together. It cannot, on its own, prove that the dollar caused a particular export change or measure how much of the change it explains.
Historical perspective: the dollar’s effects can be substantial
ERS documentation describes an earlier episode: “Between 1980 and 1985, the real dollar appreciated 57 percent, undermining the competitiveness of U.S. agricultural exports and contributing to low commodity prices.” That historical example shows how currency strength can coincide with reduced competitiveness, but it is not an estimate of the dollar’s contribution to the 2025 decline. USDA ERS exchange-rate data documentation, updated March 31, 2026
Quick Recap
Product prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on Amazon at the time of purchase will apply.
