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What Goldman’s latest forecasts say
Reuters reported that Goldman’s October note left its broad U.S. growth outlook through 2027 largely unchanged. The revisions move in opposite directions: the 2026 year-end capacity estimate rose, while the 2027 estimate fell. Reuters quoted Goldman as saying that “project data and our updated capacity estimates suggest that the US data center growth outlook through 2027 remains largely unchanged.” Reuters did not identify an individual speaker, and Goldman’s full October note was not published in the sources available.
| Measure | Reported forecast | What the figure means |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. data-center capacity, year-end 2026 | 64 GW, up 5 GW from Goldman’s prior estimate | A forecast level of capacity at year-end, as reported by Reuters on October 5, 2026. |
| U.S. data-center capacity, year-end 2027 | 90 GW, down 5 GW from Goldman’s prior estimate | A forecast level of capacity at year-end, as reported by Reuters on October 5, 2026. |
| U.S. data-center power-demand growth in 2026 | 12 GW, or 38% | Forecast annual increase in power demand, reported by Reuters; not the year-end capacity total. |
| U.S. data-center power-demand growth in 2027 | 17 GW, or 38% | Forecast annual increase in power demand, reported by Reuters; not the year-end capacity total. |
The distinction matters: capacity describes the facilities’ aggregate ability to operate, while power demand describes the electricity they are forecast to draw. The 12 GW and 17 GW figures are annual demand changes; they should not be added to or substituted for the 64 GW and 90 GW capacity estimates. Reuters’ October 5 report covers the capacity revisions and Goldman’s assessment.
Why the forecast is not a promise that every project will open
Project announcements and scheduled capacity do not guarantee that facilities will be completed or connected to power on time. In a May 2026 outlook, Goldman estimated that only about 50% to 60% of capacity scheduled for the following one to two years would come online on schedule. It attributed delays in part to supply-chain and labor shortages and said a typical data center takes 18 to 24 months to build after permits are secured. These are estimates from the May outlook, not new October commitments.
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That May analysis also projected U.S. data-center power demand at 31 GW in 2025, 41 GW in 2026 and 66 GW in 2027. It based the projection on capacity reaching roughly 95 GW by the end of 2027 and a 70% utilization assumption. Those figures belong to an earlier forecast and differ from the October report’s revised capacity outlook; they should not be treated as the October demand forecast. Goldman’s May 20, 2026 analysis explains its assumptions and schedule risks.
Grid constraints vary by region
Even a completed facility needs a viable grid connection and sufficient electricity supply. In a Goldman Sachs Exchanges discussion published in September 2026 and recorded August 12, Carly Davenport, a senior analyst on Goldman Sachs Research’s Americas utility team, said waits for grid connections could range from two to seven years depending on the regional grid. She described queues as lengthy; that range is not a standard wait for every project.
Goldman’s May outlook also emphasized regional differences. It identified elevated reliability risks in the Mid-Atlantic, Mid-Continent and Northwest. It expected comparatively limited tightening in Texas and Georgia because of planned generation additions, while noting that already-tight areas such as Tennessee, New England and Florida could see constrained additions. These assessments were part of the May outlook, not a guarantee of conditions at any particular site.
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For a specific project, the relevant questions are whether permits are secured, whether the local utility can serve the load, how long interconnection work will take, and whether planned generation and transmission arrive on schedule. A national forecast cannot settle those local questions.
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Opposition is growing, but polling measures different things
Public resistance is real, but the available polls ask different questions and should not be combined into one approval rate. Reuters reported June Reuters/Ipsos findings that about one-third of respondents approved of the pace of U.S. data-center construction, while 14% supported having a data center in their community to support AI projects. Separately, Le Monde reported a May Gallup poll in which seven in ten Americans opposed a data center near their homes. The first figures address construction pace and local support for an AI project; the Gallup figure addresses proximity to respondents’ homes.
Policy responses are also emerging. Le Monde reported that New York enacted a moratorium on July 14, 2026, covering construction of data-center complexes consuming at least 50 MW. It also reported that 300 bills had been introduced nationally. Data Center Watch, an advocacy group cited by Le Monde, counted 75 major projects blocked or delayed in the first quarter of 2026; that is the group’s reported count, not an official government census.
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State and local governments commonly control siting and permitting, while federal policy can also affect development. Axios has described the tension between long investment timelines and shorter political cycles, alongside examples of state and local restrictions. Its reporting is analysis of the policy landscape, not a complete official inventory of applicable laws. Local opposition can therefore matter substantially to individual projects without necessarily overturning a national forecast. Axios’ coverage discusses the political and permitting context.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What could ease community concerns
In the September-published Goldman Sachs Exchanges discussion, Goldman Sachs Global Head of GS SUSTAIN Brian Singer described local concerns about outages, electricity prices, water use, noise and heat. Analysts discussed potential mitigations, but these are proposals rather than guarantees for any project. The concerns also do not disappear simply because a developer offers mitigation: Singer cautioned, “But again, that doesn’t mean this is going away.”
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What the outlook means
Goldman’s reported October revisions point to continued rapid expansion, not an expectation that political opposition will stop U.S. data-center growth by 2027. The lower 2027 capacity estimate and earlier schedule risks show that project timing remains uncertain. Whether opposition delays construction or changes a project’s economics will depend on permitting, grid access and local conditions; the national outlook does not predict the outcome for any individual community.
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