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Goldman Sachs reportedly expects the MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex-Japan index (MXAPJ) to rise over roughly 12 months, with technology-led earnings growth in South Korea and Taiwan at the center of the case. The widely reported 26% figure was a dated forecast of USD price appreciation—not a promised investor return. A later October 3 summary still listed the same target but showed a different implied gain as the index level changed.
What Goldman Sachs’s 26% forecast means
On September 5, 2026, Investing.com reported that Goldman Sachs had raised its MXAPJ target to 1,120 from 1,080, describing the new target as implying a 26% price gain from the index level at that time. A September 5 Finvaulta summary of Goldman Sachs’s Asia-Pacific Weekly Kickstart used a September 4 snapshot: MXAPJ at 891 and the target at 1,120, for 26% implied USD price upside.
The distinction between the target and the percentage matters. The target is an index level; the implied return changes with the starting level. In a later Finvaulta summary dated October 3, MXAPJ was at 880 against the same 1,120 target, implying 27% upside. These are dated report snapshots, not live market readings or a guarantee of what an investor will earn.
| Report snapshot | MXAPJ reference level | Reported target | Implied USD price upside |
|---|---|---|---|
| September 4 level, in Finvaulta’s September 5 summary | 891 | 1,120 | 26% |
| Finvaulta summary dated October 3 | 880 | 1,120 | 27% |
Investing.com’s September 5 report and the two Finvaulta summaries are secondary accounts of Goldman Sachs’s view; Goldman’s underlying strategy report was not directly available in the cited material. The reports describe price return, which measures index-price movement, rather than total return, which also accounts for distributions such as dividends.
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Why the call depends on technology earnings
The reported thesis is that higher earnings estimates—especially in South Korea and Taiwan—support a higher regional index target. Both markets have substantial exposure to technology hardware and semiconductors, which the August 30 Hilo Research interpretation linked to demand associated with artificial intelligence. The rationale is an earnings forecast, not evidence that the projected growth has already occurred.
Reported earnings expectations
Hilo Research’s August 30 interpretation of Goldman Sachs’s outlook gave the following full-year earnings-growth forecasts:
| Market or region | 2026 earnings-growth forecast | 2027 earnings-growth forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Asia-Pacific region | 72% | 23% |
| South Korea | 350% | 35% |
| Taiwan | 62% | 30% |
| Japan | 19% for FY2026, revised from 13% | Not stated in Hilo Research’s August 30 interpretation |
These are forecasts as represented by Hilo Research on August 30, not realized results. The unusually large Korean projection is an earnings-growth rate, not a projected stock-market return. Separately, Finvaulta’s September 5 summary reported that second-quarter 2026 earnings across 1,029 reporting companies in the region had grown 102% year over year. That is a reported quarterly comparison and should not be treated as the same measure or period as the full-year forecasts.
Which markets and sectors Goldman Sachs reportedly favors
Hilo Research’s August 30 interpretation described a preference for South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, and China A-shares, funded in part by underweights in Australia and parts of ASEAN. It also reported favored exposure to technology hardware and semiconductors, capital goods, banks excluding Australia and China, and healthcare. These are descriptions of a dated allocation view, not a recommendation for every investor or portfolio.
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Hilo Research reported that South Korea traded at 5 times forward earnings, while Taiwan was at a higher valuation, and that the regional index stood at 11.1 times forward earnings with a 19.9% return on equity. These were estimates in that August 30 account, not current quotes. A low forward price-to-earnings multiple can look attractive relative to expected earnings, but the comparison depends on those earnings forecasts being achieved; it does not by itself establish that a market is cheap or that its price will rise.
How concentrated is the expected return?
The August 30 Hilo Research interpretation illustrates how much the regional forecast depended on South Korea and Taiwan. It reported a 12-month implied price return of 26% for MXAPJ, compared with 8% when those two markets were excluded. Its total-return estimates were 28% for MXAPJ and 11% excluding South Korea and Taiwan.
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Those are not interchangeable return measures. The September 5 Finvaulta summary, using its September 4 snapshot, reported 29% total return for MXAPJ, rather than the 28% in Hilo Research’s August 30 interpretation. Because the reports use different dates and snapshots, the figures should be read as separate estimates, not combined into a single current forecast. In practical terms, the reported outlook is not a uniform bet on every Asian market: a substantial part of the expected gain rests on the earnings and share-price performance of two technology-exposed markets.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What could challenge the outlook
Higher bond yields and market flows
Investing.com’s September 5 report identified rising bond yields as a near-term volatility risk. The October 3 Finvaulta summary put the US 10-year Treasury yield at 5.24% in that snapshot and reported roughly US$10 billion in weekly foreign outflows across emerging Asia ex-China, led by South Korea and India. These dated figures are not live market readings. Higher yields and outflows can complicate the near-term setting for equities even when an earnings-based 12-month forecast remains positive.
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Geopolitical and political uncertainty
The same September 5 Investing.com report cited tensions in the Middle East and uncertainty around the upcoming US midterm elections as possible sources of volatility. Hilo Research’s August 30 interpretation also flagged geopolitical shocks and market-specific risks, alongside the region’s dependence on the technology cycle. Those factors could affect sentiment or earnings expectations; the summaries do not quantify their potential effect on the target.
Uneven performance by market
For context on concentration, Finvaulta’s October 3 summary said MXAPJ was down 5% from its June 22 peak but up 22% year to date, while the index excluding South Korea and Taiwan was down 7% year to date. Those performance figures apply to that report’s dated snapshot. They show why an index-wide headline can obscure very different experiences across its constituent markets.
How to read the forecast as an investor
- Check the date and starting index level. A fixed target can imply different percentage gains as MXAPJ moves.
- Separate price return from total return. The 26% headline refers to forecast USD price appreciation; the total-return estimates in the secondary summaries are distinct measures.
- Look beneath the regional average. The reported ex-South Korea-and-Taiwan comparison shows that the thesis is materially concentrated in those markets.
- Treat earnings assumptions as assumptions. The regional and country growth rates are forecasts in Hilo Research’s August 30 interpretation, not realized earnings or guaranteed outcomes.
- Account for your own exposure and risk. A regional index forecast does not establish that a particular fund, portfolio, or investment is suitable for an individual investor.
The cited summaries present a bullish, technology-led forecast, but they do not establish a current live return opportunity or a guaranteed outcome. Investors evaluating the call should distinguish its dated target from market prices and weigh the earnings concentration and volatility risks alongside the headline percentage.
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