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David Hudnall’s Oct. 6, 2026 opinion article raises four questions about the forecast for a proposed Kansas City Royals ballpark at Crown Center: whether the stadium would cause all the growth counted in a broad impact area, whether old stadium openings are useful attendance comparisons, how much new tax revenue would be added over what Kauffman Stadium already generates, and how the forecast relates to the project’s borrowing costs. Those are reasons to examine the assumptions—not proof that the forecast is faulty or manipulated.
What the Royals stadium study projects
Hunden Partners prepared a 28-page “Revenue & Impact Study of New Kansas City Royals Stadium,” according to KMBC. KMBC reports that the study projects average attendance of nearly 26,000 per game. KCUR reports a forecast of about $1.4 billion in total tax revenue over 30 years, through 2059. These are projections, not revenue already collected.
| Reported revenue source | Forecast amount |
|---|---|
| Stadium | $462.5 million |
| Expanded impact area | Nearly $688 million |
| State tax increment financing | $49.3 million |
| Restaurant taxes, gaming revenue and street parking | $204.78 million |
These components are reported by KCUR as parts of Hunden’s forecast. The city committee meeting page lists the projection PDF as an attachment, but the available meeting-page extract does not provide the full report methodology. The figures therefore can be discussed as reported estimates, not independently audited results.
1. Does the impact area count growth the stadium would not cause?
Hudnall describes the study’s impact area as roughly four square miles, extending from State Line Road to Brooklyn Avenue and from Truman Road/I-670 south to 31st Street. It contains 1,726 businesses. The city uses 2025 tax collections as a baseline, and the forecast counts growth above that level.
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The boundary matters because a broad area can capture activity from many businesses and developments, not just spending generated by baseball. Tax receipts could also rise because of development that would happen anyway or because prices increase. The key question is what portion of the forecast is genuinely additional: activity that would not occur without the ballpark.
To assess that claim, readers need to know why the boundary was chosen, how the model distinguishes stadium-related growth from other development, and what it assumes would happen in the area without the project. The available figures do not answer those questions by themselves.
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2. Are the attendance comparisons current and comparable?
Hudnall says Hunden relies substantially on six stadium openings: Baltimore in 1992; Milwaukee and Pittsburgh in 2001; Cincinnati in 2003; San Diego in 2004; and Atlanta in 2017. Hunden’s reported average opening-season attendance increase for those examples is 42%. Five of the six parks opened more than 20 years ago, so their results may not transfer neatly to a present-day Kansas City forecast.
Hudnall also notes that Atlanta’s opening was followed by five winning seasons. Team performance is one possible reason attendance may change after a move, separate from the effect of the stadium itself. Market size and the era of each opening are other comparability questions.
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KMBC reports Hunden’s projected Royals average at nearly 26,000 fans per game. Hudnall compares that with 21,590 in the prior year and a long-run average around 20,800. Those reported figures establish the size of the forecast increase; they do not establish whether the historical parks are the right predictors. Attendance is also an input to a tax-revenue forecast, not a measure of tax revenue on its own.
3. How much revenue would be new compared with Kauffman Stadium?
Hudnall attributes to the city an estimate that Kauffman Stadium currently generates about $4.5 million to $5.5 million a year in city tax revenue. He says neither the Hunden study nor the city’s financing presentation provided a clean comparison between current-stadium revenue and proposed-stadium revenue.
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That comparison is important for a public-finance question. Some spending at a new ballpark might shift from Kauffman Stadium or from other Kansas City businesses rather than represent new activity for the city. A forecast should make clear how much it counts as new, how much it treats as displaced spending, and which tax revenues accrue to the city versus other public entities. Without a comparable current-versus-proposed estimate, the headline total alone does not show the net increase attributable to the move.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.4. How does the forecast compare with the borrowing cost?
The city said in August 2026 that it would commit a fixed total of $600 million toward the overall $1.9 billion stadium cost, with a planned opening in 2030. Hudnall says the city would pay about $1.393 billion in principal and interest over decades of borrowing. That amount is close to the roughly $1.4 billion in projected tax revenue reported by KCUR.
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The resemblance is a reason to ask how the forecast was developed and whether its assumptions were set independently of the financing need. It is not evidence, by itself, that the forecast was reverse-engineered. Nor does a similar top-line total mean revenues and borrowing costs are interchangeable: the forecast covers multiple tax sources and public beneficiaries over 30 years, while debt service is a financing obligation. A sound comparison would need the timing, recipients and assumptions behind both figures.
What to check before treating the forecast as a taxpayer benefit
For residents weighing the public-finance implications, the most useful follow-up is not simply whether the forecast is large, but how sensitive it is to assumptions and what it measures. Look for clear answers on:
- Geography: Why does the impact-area boundary include these businesses and developments?
- Additionality: What growth is expected with the project, and what would likely occur without it?
- Displacement: How does the estimate account for spending moved from Kauffman or from other nearby Kansas City businesses?
- Attendance comparability: How do the example markets, team performance and stadium-opening eras compare with Kansas City?
- Time and sensitivity: What forecast period and inflation treatment are used, and how would revenue change under lower attendance or slower development?
- Public-finance comparison: How do projected revenues compare with current stadium tax revenue and the timing and recipients of financing costs?
Hudnall characterizes the projections as “conservative,” attributing that description to Hunden Partners. A label like that does not settle whether the forecast is reliable; the assumptions and comparisons above are what readers need to evaluate.
What the four criticisms establish—and what they do not
Hudnall’s critique identifies reasonable tests for a public-impact forecast: causal attribution across a broad area, relevant historical comparisons, a baseline that accounts for existing activity, and transparency about the relationship between forecast revenue and financing needs. The reported numbers give readers a starting point, but the available meeting-page material does not expose the full methodology needed to independently assess the model. On the evidence available, the appropriate conclusion is scrutiny of the assumptions, not a claim that the projections are wrong.
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