Federal Milk Marketing Orders (FMMOs) do not set or cap the price shoppers pay for milk. They set formula-based minimum prices processors pay farmers for covered milk, with rates varying by use and marketing area. Egg prices, meanwhile, surged as avian influenza reduced flocks and production. Those are different markets and different price measures—not evidence that federal rules held grocery milk prices steady at farmers’ expense.
What the headline gets right—and what it can imply incorrectly
The contrast is a time-bound description of the sharp egg-price increases reported in 2025 and the absence of a matching retail-milk spike. It should not be read as evidence that federal rules controlled the store price of milk. FMMOs regulate minimum payments from milk handlers to farmers for covered milk; they do not fix a grocery-store price or guarantee that milk will cost the same from month to month.
Three prices matter here: the regulated minimum a processor owes for milk in a particular class and area, the amount a farmer ultimately receives, and the retail price paid by a consumer. They are related, but they are not interchangeable. Retail prices also reflect processing, packaging, transportation and retailing.
Why egg and milk prices moved differently
Eggs: a supply shock from avian influenza
The USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) attributes egg-price increases to ongoing highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) and resulting reductions in laying flocks and egg production. That supply pressure showed up in both retail and farm-level egg-price series, although the two series did not move by the same amount or in the same direction every year.
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| Period | Retail egg prices | Farm-level egg prices |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 annual change | Up 32.2% (USDA ERS, 2026 summary) | Up 163.1% (USDA ERS, 2026 summary) |
| 2023 annual change | Up 1.4% (USDA ERS, 2026 summary) | Down 28.3% (USDA ERS, 2026 summary) |
| 2024 annual change | Up 8.5% (USDA ERS, 2026 summary) | Up 43.1% (USDA ERS, 2026 summary) |
| 2025 annual change | Up 21.9% (USDA ERS, 2026 summary) | Up 31.6% (USDA ERS, 2026 summary) |
The USDA ERS reported a national average retail egg price of $5.12 per dozen in April 2025. In the first quarter of 2025, imports of eggs and egg products totaled 28.7 million shell-egg-equivalent dozen, also according to USDA ERS. These figures describe different parts of the market: one is a retail price at a specific date, the other a quarterly import volume.
Milk: a regulated farm-payment system, not a retail-price cap
FMMO minimums are recalculated monthly using formulas tied to wholesale dairy commodity prices. Milk is classified by how it is used, and minimum prices vary by class and marketing area. That system can affect what handlers pay farmers; it does not remove the costs or market conditions between the farm and the grocery checkout.
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USDA ERS reports that most U.S. milk is marketed through FMMOs, while some is handled under state programs or outside both systems. Congress authorized the orders under the Agricultural Marketing Agreement Act of 1937. The process for changing an order includes public hearings and producer approval by referendum.
What current USDA price figures show
The 2025 headline framing is not a description of the latest price direction. USDA ERS’s 2026 summary reports these year-over-year comparisons for August 2026:
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| Price series | August 2026 comparison | Qualification |
|---|---|---|
| Retail eggs | 23.0% lower than August 2025 | Observed retail price comparison; USDA ERS, 2026 |
| Farm-level eggs | 59.4% lower than August 2025 | Observed farm-level price comparison; USDA ERS, 2026 |
| Retail dairy | 0.3% lower than August 2025 | Retail dairy series, not a specific fluid-milk price; USDA ERS, 2026 |
| Farm-level milk | 10.2% lower than August 2025 | Observed farm-level price comparison; USDA ERS, 2026 |
| Farm-level milk | USDA forecast a 9.4% decrease for 2026 | Forecast, not a final annual result; USDA ERS, 2026 |
These series cannot be substituted for one another. For example, a modest change in an aggregate retail dairy series does not establish the exact change in a particular brand, package size or local store’s fluid-milk price. Likewise, a decline in a farm-level milk series is not the same as a decline of that size at retail.
How much of a gallon of milk goes to the farm?
USDA ERS estimated that the farmer’s share of the retail price of whole milk rose from 47% in 2023 to 49% in 2024. For 2024, ERS put the farm value at $1.97 per gallon and the retail price at $3.98 per gallon. The difference is not all processor profit: it also reflects costs and activities after the farm, including processing, packaging, transport and retailing. A farm share is a breakdown of the retail dollar, not a direct measure of whether an individual dairy farm is profitable.
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What changed in the milk orders in 2025
On January 16, 2025, USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service announced that producers had approved amendments to all 11 FMMOs. Most changes took effect June 1, 2025; the skim-milk-composition changes took effect December 1, 2025.
- Skim milk composition factors were updated. The new factors took effect December 1, 2025.
- Manufacturing allowances were revised. These are inputs in the formulas used to calculate regulated prices.
- The Class I skim-milk formula returned to the higher-of method. It uses the higher of the Class III or Class IV skim-milk price.
- Class I differentials were updated. These area-based adjustments contribute to the minimum price for fluid milk.
Those amendments changed the rules for calculating covered farm payments. They did not create a nationwide retail-price ceiling, nor do they mean that every farmer receives the same net amount: actual receipts depend on applicable order provisions and other milk-market arrangements.
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Does a steadier store price mean farmers absorbed the squeeze?
Not necessarily, and the retail price alone cannot answer that. In 2024, the USDA ERS farm-share estimate put farmers’ portion of whole-milk retail value at 49%, but that percentage does not show a particular farm’s costs, contract terms or net income.
The Missouri Independent reported in 2025 that dairy operating costs had nearly doubled over a decade while the price farmers received had fallen 15%, citing an analysis of USDA data. The article’s exact series, years and calculation are not specified in the material supporting those figures, so treat them as the publication’s reported comparison—not as a separately verified USDA statistic. The same publication reported that California milk production reached a 20-year low in 2024 and described California as the largest dairy-producing state. Neither report, on its own, establishes that FMMOs caused farm financial pressure or that retail-price stability was achieved at farmers’ expense.
Quick Recap
How to read future egg-and-milk price headlines
- Check whether a figure is a retail price, a farm-level price or an FMMO minimum payment.
- Look for the period and geography; a year-over-year national comparison is not a local price quote.
- For eggs, distinguish HPAI-related supply effects from later price movements. Prices can reverse as conditions change.
- For milk, distinguish the regulated handler-to-farmer minimum from the consumer price, which includes additional costs and market factors.
- Separate observed results from forecasts, especially when a source gives both.
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