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In late February 2025, state agriculture commissioners welcomed a USDA plan to spend up to $1 billion fighting highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in poultry. The plan combined disease control with help for producers whose flocks were culled, and USDA said it hoped the work would also lower egg prices. The headline’s 41% egg-price increase was a forecast for 2025, not a measured result, and it should not be read as a current price figure.
What USDA announced on February 26, 2025
USDA’s announcement, made February 26, 2025, described a five-part strategy. Nada Hassanein’s Stateline report, published February 27, 2025, covered how state agriculture departments reacted to it.
- Biosecurity. Reduce poultry exposure to wild birds and audit infected farms.
- Producer assistance. Help affected producers, including with repopulating flocks.
- Regulatory changes. Adjust rules that affect the chicken and egg industry.
- Research. Support work on vaccines and therapeutics.
- Imports. Explore temporary egg imports.
USDA presented these measures as ways to curb HPAI, protect poultry production and lower egg prices. Those were announced actions and goals. The announcement alone does not show that any of them had produced results.
The egg-price figure was a forecast
The 41% number in the headline came from USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS), which expected egg prices to rise that much in 2025. ERS published the projection in its February 2025 outlook, and Stateline reported it. Because it was a projection made in early 2025, it cannot tell you what eggs actually cost over the rest of that year.
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The table below separates each figure from the others, because they measure different things and cover different periods.
| Figure | Value | Source and date | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| HPAI strategy spending | Up to $1 billion | USDA announcement, February 26, 2025 | Announced amount, not a record of money spent |
| Projected egg-price increase | 41% | USDA ERS February 2025 outlook, reported by Stateline on February 27, 2025 | A forecast for 2025, not an observed full-year change |
| Confirmed HPAI cases in commercial table-egg layer flocks | 47 flocks | USDA APHIS, October 15, 2024 to February 7, 2025, as reported in the ERS outlook | Flocks confirmed in that window only |
| Layer hens depopulated | 42.8 million | USDA APHIS, same October 15, 2024 to February 7, 2025 window | Birds culled in that window only |
| Wholesale egg price change | Down 64% from peak | USDA update, June 26, 2025 | Change from the earlier-2025 peak, not from pre-outbreak levels |
| Retail egg price change | Down 27% from peak | USDA update, June 26, 2025 | Change from the earlier-2025 peak, not from pre-outbreak levels |
ERS tied the flock losses to winter holiday demand and described pressure on inventories and wholesale prices. A forecast increase and a later decline from a peak are measured from different starting points, so they cannot be netted against each other to produce a single “net change.”
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How state officials responded
Texas: Sid Miller
Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller backed more research and biosecurity as a way to reduce reliance on mass culling. He acknowledged that depopulation might still be necessary in severe cases. Stateline reproduced his statement in this sentence:
“Reducing our reliance on mass culling is critical to protecting both our nation’s food supply and economy.”
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Iowa: Mike Naig
Iowa Agriculture Secretary Mike Naig supported a new vaccination strategy and payments to farmers who had lost birds. He urged USDA to develop implementation together with state animal-health officials, farmers and industry, and to weigh possible trade impacts. Stateline paraphrased his position rather than quoting him directly.
Concerns from state health officials
Some state health officials raised concerns that were separate from the agriculture commissioners’ praise. They said federal staffing losses, changes to public health data and disruption to federal testing capacity could weaken outbreak tracking and response. The reported concerns came from health officials, not from the commissioners.
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What later USDA material shows
USDA’s June 26, 2025 update reported that wholesale egg prices had fallen 64% and retail prices 27% from their peaks earlier that year. That is useful for seeing the direction of prices after the forecast, but it does not establish today’s egg price.
APHIS’s H5N1 resource page, last modified January 20, 2026, still described H5N1 outbreaks in U.S. domestic birds and dairy cattle and listed resources for producers. It indicates that the disease was still being monitored at that date. It does not contain price data.
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What this means for a household egg budget
A percentage forecast only becomes a dollar cost once you apply it to what you actually spend. Use this formula:
Added monthly cost = average monthly egg spending × percentage change
For example, if your household spends $20 a month on eggs (an illustrative figure, not a price), a full 41% increase would add about $8.20 a month. Retail prices rarely move in lockstep with wholesale prices, and a forecast is not a guarantee, so treat that result as a ceiling for planning rather than a prediction.
A practical approach:
- Pull your receipts or card statements for the last 6 to 12 months and calculate your average monthly egg spending.
- Build three scenarios: no change, half the forecast increase, and the full forecast increase.
- Set aside the difference between your current spending and the scenario you choose as a short-term buffer, and review it when USDA publishes new egg price data.
- If you buy eggs in larger packs or from a different retailer, compare unit prices rather than package prices, since package sizes change over time.
Limits of the evidence
- The Stateline report and USDA’s February 2025 announcement describe intended spending and actions. They do not show results.
- The 41% figure is a 2025 forecast. No source in this article establishes what eggs cost after mid-2025.
- The sources do not rank the effectiveness of biosecurity, depopulation with compensation, vaccination, therapeutics, imports or regulatory changes against each other.
- The health officials’ concerns were reported by Stateline and were not independently verified here.
The plan was a February 2025 announcement of spending and goals. The 41% figure was a forecast for that year. The later USDA price declines are measured from 2025 peaks, and current egg prices require checking USDA’s latest published data.
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