Domestic travel activity in the United States rose modestly in 2025 while international arrivals fell—but the available figures do not show that Americans narrowly rescued the tourism industry or replaced lost foreign visitor spending. The evidence supports a contrast in travel trends, not a dollar-for-dollar offset. It also does not establish an eight-month consecutive decline.
What happened to domestic and international travel in 2025?
According to the OECD’s 2026 U.S. tourism profile, domestic travelers took an estimated 2.4 billion person-trips in 2025, up 1.9% from 2024. The same profile reports 68.3 million international arrivals, down 5.5% year over year and equal to 86% of the 2019 level. These are different measures: one counts domestic person-trips, while the other counts inbound international arrivals.
A sharper monthly snapshot came from the National Travel and Tourism Office (NTTO): it counted 5,477,289 international visitor arrivals in September 2025, 11% fewer than in September 2024 and 81.7% of the September 2019 total. That one month does not establish an eight-month run of declines.
Did domestic travel spending make up for fewer international visitors?
The figures available do not answer that question. More domestic trips do not, by themselves, reveal how much travelers spent or whether their spending replaced money that international visitors would have spent. The OECD reports that travel exports reached $250 billion in 2025, accounting for 20.3% of U.S. service exports, underscoring the importance of inbound travel to the economy.
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For comparison, the U.S. Travel Association’s 2025 forecast estimated $1.2 trillion in domestic traveler spending and $173 billion in international visitor spending for 2025. These were forecasts, not audited final spending totals, and should not be treated as directly comparable to the OECD’s travel-export figure: the sources may use different definitions and methodologies. The association also forecast 67.9 million inbound visits in 2025, down from 72.4 million in 2024; the OECD later reported 68.3 million international arrivals for 2025.
Who counts as an international visitor?
NTTO’s international total includes visitors from Canada and Mexico; “overseas” arrivals exclude both. Its ADIS/I-94 arrival measure covers visitors staying at least one night and traveling under specified visa categories. It is used to calculate U.S. travel and tourism exports, but it is not a count of every border crossing or every traveler entering the country. Comparisons depend on using the same definition.
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Why tourism matters beyond the visitor count
The OECD’s 2026 profile reports that tourism generated $840 billion in U.S. gross value added and directly employed 6.5 million people in 2023. Those figures describe tourism’s economic footprint, not the amount of activity lost in 2025. A change in arrivals alone cannot show how businesses, workers, or destinations fared.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What the outlook says about inbound travel
NTTO’s 2026 forecast projects international arrivals rising 3.2% to 70.5 million in 2026 and reaching 85.2 million by 2030. The office says the 2026 FIFA World Cup is one factor behind expected demand. These are projections, not confirmed outcomes; actual arrivals may differ.
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