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Re:

Did Mortgage Rates Go Down Over the Last Week? Rates for Sept. 16, 2024

Freddie Mac’s latest weekly reading available for Sept. 16, 2024 put the 30-year fixed average at 6.20% and the 15-year average at 5.27%.
From TheFinanceBase Team3 min to read
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Yes. Freddie Mac’s latest weekly survey available for the Sept. 16, 2024 snapshot showed the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate falling to 6.20% for the week ending Sept. 12, from 6.35% the week before. The 15-year fixed average also declined, to 5.27% from 5.47%. These are Thursday survey figures, not rates measured specifically on Monday, Sept. 16.

How much did mortgage rates fall?

Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey recorded a 0.15-percentage-point weekly decline in the 30-year fixed average and a 0.20-percentage-point decline in the 15-year average. Its year-over-year comparison also showed lower rates: the 30-year average was 7.18% on Sept. 12, 2023, while the 15-year average was 6.51%.

Freddie Mac national average Week ending Sept. 12, 2024 Previous week Year earlier
30-year fixed 6.20% 6.35% 7.18%
15-year fixed 5.27% 5.47% 6.51%

Freddie Mac Chief Economist Sam Khater said the 30-year rate had fallen more than half a percentage point over six weeks and was at its lowest level since February 2023. He attributed the softening to incoming economic data that was “more sedate.” Those remarks describe the market in September 2024, not a current rate forecast. Freddie Mac’s weekly survey is a national benchmark, not a live rate quote.

What the published rates represent—and what they do not

Freddie Mac’s survey focuses on conventional, conforming, fully amortizing home-purchase loans and assumes 20% down and excellent credit. A borrower’s offer can differ based on credit, down payment, loan type, property, lender and other terms. The 6.20% figure therefore should not be treated as a guaranteed rate or as a personalized refinance quote. Freddie Mac

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What the decline could mean for a monthly payment

To illustrate the effect of the 6.20% benchmark, the National Association of REALTORS® gave two examples for a $400,000 home: an estimated $1,960 monthly mortgage payment with 20% down and $2,205 with 10% down. These are illustrative payment figures, not complete estimates of homeownership costs or individualized loan offers. They do not, by themselves, account for every cost such as taxes, insurance or mortgage insurance.

NAR Deputy Chief Economist Jessica Lautz also compared a $400,000 mortgage with October 2023 rates, estimating a $341 monthly or $4,092 annual difference. That comparison is attributable to Lautz and depends on its assumptions; it is not a universal saving for every borrower. NAR’s Sept. 12, 2024 rate reaction

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Why rates were easing, and why a Fed cut was not a guarantee

Contemporaneous coverage linked the decline to softer incoming economic data and expectations of a Federal Reserve policy move. The Fed does not set mortgage rates directly: mortgage pricing responds to broader market conditions and expectations, so a change in the federal funds rate does not mechanically determine a borrower’s mortgage quote.

NAR Deputy Chief Economist Jessica Lautz said the September rate cut expected at the time was not likely to move mortgage rates because it had already been “baked into the mortgage market.” NAR Senior Economist Nadia Evangelou likewise wrote that mortgage rates had already priced in some effects of the expected Fed cut. These were explanations of market expectations in September 2024, not a prediction that a later policy decision would necessarily push mortgage rates down. NAR’s Sept. 13, 2024 report

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Lower borrowing rates did not solve the affordability problem

A lower mortgage rate can reduce borrowing costs, but it does not make home prices or the supply of homes disappear as constraints. Freddie Mac pointed to high house prices and persistent supply shortages, while Realtor.com noted that local market conditions varied.

For context at the time, Realtor.com Economic Research cited 142,000 net new jobs in the August jobs report and annual home-price growth of 2.5% based on August inflation data, described as the lowest since February 2021. These are dated indicators from September 2024, not current readings or a guarantee of conditions in a particular buyer’s area. Realtor.com Economic Research, Sept. 12, 2024

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