No—not in the national pending-sales measure reported by Redfin. Pending home sales fell 4% month over month in September 2026, the largest monthly decline in more than three years, according to Redfin’s report published October 12. That does not establish whether national completed sales rose or fell: pending sales count homes going under contract, while closed sales count completed transactions.
What does “home sales rose” mean?
The claim is incomplete unless it identifies the geography, the kind of transaction, and the comparison period. “Sales” can refer to pending transactions—homes that went under contract—or closed transactions, which have completed. A report might also compare September with August or with the same month a year earlier. Those measures can point in different directions.
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- Pending sales: A measure of homes going under contract. Redfin’s national September figure was seasonally adjusted.
- Closed sales: Completed transactions. Redfin reported year-over-year increases in some metros, but those local results do not demonstrate a national month-over-month increase.
- Comparison: Month-over-month and year-over-year changes answer different questions and should not be treated as interchangeable.
The supplied headline does not identify a country or market, a sales measure, or a data series. Redfin’s U.S. report is a relevant recent measure, but it cannot verify an unspecified claim about national closed sales rising for the first time since spring.
What Redfin reported for September 2026
Redfin’s “U.S. Pending Home Sales Sink Near 12-Year Low,” published October 12, 2026, reports that seasonally adjusted U.S. pending home sales fell 4% from August. Redfin described the drop as the largest monthly decline in more than three years.
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Redfin also reported a September median U.S. home-sale price of $393,895, up 1.3% year over year. It characterized that annual price increase as the smallest since February. The price statistic and pending-sales statistic track different aspects of the market: prices can rise even as fewer homes go under contract.
Redfin associated the decline in pending sales with mortgage rates rising above 7% by the end of September. That is Redfin’s explanation, not proof that rates alone caused the change.
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Why local sales increases do not settle the national question
Redfin reported that closed sales rose year over year in Indianapolis (3.2%), Orlando (3%), and Nassau County, New York (2.8%). Those are metro-level comparisons against the prior year. They do not show that U.S. closed sales rose month over month, nor do they contradict a decline in national pending sales: the geography, transaction stage, and comparison period differ.
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1Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors2Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minute3Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsHousing indicators can move in separate directions. Pending transactions may fall while some metros record more closings, and sale prices may still increase. To assess a claim that sales are “up,” check that the report uses the same geography and measure you care about, and note whether the figures are seasonally adjusted and compared with the prior month or prior year.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How to interpret a September sales headline
- Find the geography. Determine whether the number covers the United States, a state, or a metro area.
- Identify the transaction stage. Confirm whether “sales” means homes going under contract or completed sales.
- Check the comparison. Look for month-over-month or year-over-year wording; “since spring” also needs a stated starting point and series.
- Read the adjustment and date. Check whether the figure is seasonally adjusted and when the report was published. Redfin’s cited national pending-sales number is seasonally adjusted, and its report was published October 12, 2026.
- Keep prices separate from sales volume. A price increase does not mean more homes sold.
Without the original report or data release behind the headline, the claim that home sales rose in September for the first time since spring remains unverified. The specific national measure available from Redfin shows pending sales fell; it does not answer whether national completed sales rose.
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