Dell Technologies’ February 2025 forecast was for at least $15 billion in AI-server shipments during fiscal 2026—not a report of sales already made or a forecast for calendar 2025. Dell later raised that FY2026 shipment guidance to $20 billion. The company’s subsequent FY2026 results release does not state the actual FY2026 AI-server shipment total.
What Dell forecast in February 2025
On February 27, 2025, alongside its FY2025 results, Dell said it expected to ship at least $15 billion in AI servers in FY2026. Dell also forecast total FY2026 revenue of $101 billion to $105 billion. These were management outlook figures, not realized results. Dell’s FY2025 Q4 results release and earnings-call transcript describe the forecast.
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Dell’s FY2026 is a fiscal reporting period, not another name for calendar 2025. The original headline’s “this year” therefore needs that fiscal-year context.
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Why COO Jeff Clarke was optimistic
Jeff Clarke, Dell’s vice chairman and chief operating officer, tied his optimism to the computing demands of newer AI models. He pointed to reasoning models, multimodal models that work across formats such as text and images, and the growing computational capability those models require. Clarke said: “These reasoning models will consume more computational capability. They’re moving to be multimodal, which even consumes more. I kind of like where this is going. We’re optimistic.” CRN’s February 2025 report and the earnings-call transcript record his remarks.
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Dell’s pitch was also about delivering integrated systems and services, rather than servers alone. Clarke described a broader commercial offering that can include deployment, networking, storage, services and financing. The FY2025 Q4 call mentions the PowerEdge 9680 in connection with Dell’s AI-server pipeline; that reference does not establish its current availability or make this financial outlook a buying guide. Dell’s earnings-call transcript
Backlog is not the same as shipments or revenue
At the time of the February announcement, Dell reported approximately $9 billion in AI-server backlog. Backlog represents business awaiting fulfillment; it does not mean those systems had already shipped or that Dell had already recognized the amount as revenue. Dell also reported $6.6 billion in Q4 FY2025 Servers and Networking revenue, up 37% year over year, but that segment includes traditional servers as well as AI servers. It is not an AI-server revenue figure. Dell’s FY2025 Q4 results release
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- Backlog: orders or demand awaiting fulfillment, not completed shipments.
- Shipments: systems delivered; Dell’s original $15 billion figure was shipment guidance.
- Revenue: a financial reporting measure that should not be substituted for shipment guidance.
How Dell’s AI-server outlook changed
| Announcement | Fiscal period | Measure | Company-reported figure |
|---|---|---|---|
| February 27, 2025 | FY2026 | AI-server shipment guidance | At least $15 billion |
| August 28, 2025 | FY2026 | AI-server shipment guidance | $20 billion, raised from the original outlook |
In August 2025, Dell said it had shipped $10 billion in AI solutions in the first half of FY2026 and raised its full-year AI-server shipment guidance to $20 billion. The half-year figure is for AI solutions, a broader wording than AI-server shipments, so it should not be treated as the first-half portion of the $20 billion server target. Dell’s FY2026 Q2 results release and Jeff Clarke’s August 2025 blog post
What Dell’s later results do—and do not—confirm
Dell’s FY2026 results release provides broader annual financial outcomes and an outlook for FY2027, including roughly $50 billion in AI-optimized server revenue. That is a forward-looking revenue estimate for a different fiscal year, not a directly comparable FY2026 shipment target. The release does not disclose the realized FY2026 AI-server shipment total, so the $15 billion or revised $20 billion guidance alone cannot establish whether Dell met either target. Dell’s FY2026 Q4 results release
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