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Airlines could face serious jet-fuel shortages in regions with thin inventories and disrupted supply—but the warning that fuel might run dry within weeks was not a forecast that the world would run out everywhere on a set date. In 2026, disruption around the Strait of Hormuz drove prices sharply higher and forced some carriers to cut or reshape schedules. Later, lower demand, refinery changes and rerouted trade helped prevent the feared crunch from fully materializing.
Why airlines warned fuel could run short
The 2026 Middle East conflict disrupted tanker traffic and refined-product flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global oil and fuel shipments. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) said the strait normally carries about one-fifth of global oil. During the disruption, tanker traffic fell by 70%–80%, according to IATA.
Jet fuel is not interchangeable with crude oil at the airport: it must be refined, transported and stored. A route reopening therefore cannot immediately restore refinery output, tanker availability, insurance or depleted inventories. IATA Director General Willie Walsh said that “even if Iran reopened the Strait of Hormuz it would take months for jet fuel supply to recover given disruptions to Middle East refining capacity.”
IATA said the strait normally carries roughly 470,000 barrels per day of jet fuel available in the region. Its June 2026 AGM briefing compared May 2026 Middle East Gulf activity with 2025 averages: oil production was down 45%, refinery runs down 35%, crude exports down 60%, refined-product exports down 70%, crude-tanker transits down 88% and product-tanker transits down 86%.
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Where the shortage risk was greatest
Europe: exposed to Gulf supply and limited inventories
IATA said 25%–30% of European jet-fuel demand originated in the Persian Gulf, while normal commercial inventories covered only a little over one month of demand. That combination made Europe vulnerable to a prolonged interruption: a region can face a local squeeze before the world runs out of fuel.
S&P Global reported that European wholesale jet fuel averaged $1,521 per metric ton in March 2026, about 97% above February. Stocks in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp area fell to 597,000 metric tons, their lowest level since April 2020.
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United States: a sharp price shock
Fox News, citing the Argus U.S. Jet Fuel Index, reported that U.S. jet-fuel prices rose from about $2.17 to $4.56 per gallon by March 20, 2026. That was a more than doubling in the initial shock, not evidence that U.S. airports were about to run out of fuel.
India: fuel costs threatened airline economics
S&P Global reported that the Federation of Indian Airlines said fuel had risen to 55%–60% of operating costs, compared with 30%–40% before the war. In an April 26, 2026 letter quoted by S&P Global, the federation warned that ad hoc pricing or irrational increases in aviation turbine fuel prices could cause losses, ground aircraft and lead to cancellations.
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What the warnings meant for flights and fares
Airlines responded to the fuel shock with a mix of capacity reductions, schedule changes, route suspensions, cancellations, higher fares and surcharges. Some carriers also carried extra fuel from their home bases or added refueling stops. These measures can protect operations or reduce costs, but they can mean fewer seats, less convenient itineraries and higher prices for travelers.
Examples reported during the disruption included:
- United said it would cut about 5% of planned flights in the near term. Its CEO, Scott Kirby, warned that sustained high prices could add $11 billion in annual jet-fuel expense.
- Delta CEO Ed Bastian said the spike added as much as $400 million in March; American expected about $400 million in first-quarter fuel expense.
- Air France-KLM planned higher long-haul fares, while Cathay Pacific and other Asian carriers increased surcharges. SAS planned about 1,000 April cancellations.
- The Nation reported that AirAsia X raised fares 31%–40% and fuel surcharges about 20%; Air New Zealand announced further schedule cuts.
Those figures describe airline announcements and reported fuel costs during the 2026 disruption, not a uniform increase for every route or ticket. Fuel is only one part of an airfare, and carriers do not all pass higher costs to customers in the same way or at the same time.
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Did the world actually run out of jet fuel?
No uniform global exhaustion occurred. CNA later reported that reduced demand, refinery decisions to make more jet fuel and rerouted trade helped prevent the feared crunch from fully materializing. Lufthansa subsequently said its summer operations were “good to go,” although earlier capacity cuts remained.
Avoiding a worldwide shortage did not erase the financial damage or guarantee that every region had ample supply. IATA’s June 2026 outlook cut projected airline-industry profit from $45 billion in 2025 to $23 billion in 2026, and forecast fuel at 31.4% of operating expenses in 2026, compared with 25.4% in 2025. Those are industry outlook figures, not a measure of any single airline’s costs.
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What travelers can do when fuel disruption affects a trip
For an upcoming flight, focus on the itinerary and the airline’s current operating notices rather than treating a global “run out” warning as a precise countdown. Practical steps include:
Quick Recap
- Check your booking and flight status directly with the airline, especially before leaving for the airport; a schedule can change even when the route remains on sale.
- If your trip is time-sensitive, look at alternative departures or routings and understand the airline’s change and cancellation terms before making a decision.
- Keep receipts and read your ticket and applicable passenger-rights rules if the airline cancels or significantly changes your itinerary. What you are owed depends on the carrier, route and governing rules.
- Do not assume a fuel surcharge or fare increase applies to every ticket: check the final price and fare conditions for the specific itinerary you are considering.
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