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One free scan finds every outdated or missing driver and matches the right update for your exact hardware.Free scan · exact hardware matchOn January 14, 2025, Reuters reported that Brazil’s crop agency, Conab, raised its forecast for the country’s 2024/25 soybean harvest to 166.32 million metric tons, from 166.21 million. The 0.11-million-tonne increase reflected favorable weather and a minor adjustment to projected planted-area growth; it was a forecast at that time, not a current estimate or final harvest result.
What changed in Conab’s January 2025 forecast?
The 2024/25 soybean production estimate increased by 110,000 metric tons, or about 0.07%, from Conab’s previous estimate. Reuters reported that Conab attributed the revision to good weather and a small adjustment in expected planted-area growth. The report did not identify a named Conab official making a direct statement. Reuters report republished by Agriculture.com, January 14, 2025.
What else did the January estimate project?
In that January 2025 estimate vintage, Conab put 2024/25 soybean area at 47.4 million hectares, 2.7% above the prior season; its previous month’s estimate had put area growth at 2.6%. Reuters described the projected harvest as a record at the time and 12.6% above the 2023/24 crop.
Conab also then expected 2024/25 soybean exports to exceed 105 million tonnes, compared with 98.6 million tonnes in the previous year, citing ample supply. Reuters said most Brazilian soybean exports went to China. These are period-specific projections and context, not current trade figures.
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The same report showed that the upward soybean revision was not a general increase across crops: Conab slightly lowered its total corn production forecast to 119.55 million metric tons, citing factors that included a smaller first-crop area and drier conditions in the south.
How the 2024/25 forecast differs from later soybean estimates
Later figures refer to different crop years, estimate dates, or statistical series. They should not be read as revised versions of the January 2025 2024/25 forecast without that context.
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| Figure | Season or reference | Source and date | What it represents |
|---|---|---|---|
| 166.32 million metric tons | Brazil’s 2024/25 soybean crop | Conab forecast reported by Reuters, January 14, 2025 | Forecast, raised from 166.21 million metric tons |
| 177.7 million tonnes | Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean crop | Conab outlook, 2025 | Earlier production projection; the outlook also projected domestic consumption of 63.3 million tonnes and exports of 112.1 million tonnes. Conab grain-crop outlook page |
| 166.0 million tonnes | Brazil’s 2025 calendar-year soybean crop | IBGE estimate, November 2025 | IBGE described this as a record in its own series; it is not the same reference as Conab’s 2024/25 season forecast. IBGE release, November 2025 |
| 180.4 million tonnes | Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean crop | Conab 12th crop survey, September 15, 2026 | Later survey estimate; Conab reported growth of 5.2% against the previous cycle, with area up 2.7% and productivity up 2.5%, and projected exports of 116.2 million tonnes. Conab release, September 15, 2026 |
Conab’s earlier 2025/26 outlook and its later September 2026 survey are different estimate vintages, not figures to average together. IBGE’s calendar-year estimate is another series and framing. The cited figures do not provide a full methodological reconciliation among these estimates.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Why the distinction matters for market readers
A production forecast is an estimate, not proof of the harvested outcome. Its date and crop-year definition matter when interpreting supply expectations or comparing it with exports and prices. The January 2025 number describes what Conab expected for 2024/25 at that point; the later 2025/26 survey describes another season and a later estimate. Neither should be presented as the other’s current equivalent.
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Product prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on Amazon at the time of purchase will apply.
