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What Conab estimated in August
In its 11th survey, published August 13, 2026, Brazil’s National Supply Company (Conab) projected 2025/26 grain production at 360.8 million tonnes, 2.4% above the previous crop year. The estimate covered 83.5 million hectares, 2.1% more cultivated area, with a projected national average yield of 4,322 kilograms per hectare. Conab attributed the larger output outlook to area growth.
Corn was the main driver in the headline. Conab’s August estimate put total production across the three corn crops at 143 million tonnes:
- First-crop corn: 29.5 million tonnes.
- Second-crop corn: about 111 million tonnes.
- Third-crop corn: 2.4 million tonnes.
Conab also reported that weather since June had harmed development in some northeastern corn fields, particularly in northeastern Bahia, Sergipe, and parts of Alagoas. The national forecast therefore combined growth in expected production with localized weather damage.
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How the forecast changed in September
Conab’s September 15, 2026 update estimated 2025/26 grain production at 361.7 million tonnes, 0.3% above the August estimate, and total corn production at 144 million tonnes. The revision incorporated progress in the second-crop corn harvest, with yields above expectations.
| Conab estimate | Total grain | Total corn | What it reflects |
|---|---|---|---|
| August 13, 2026, 11th survey | 360.8 million tonnes | 143 million tonnes | Projection; area growth was a key factor. |
| September 15, 2026 update | 361.7 million tonnes | 144 million tonnes | Updated with second-crop harvest progress and yields above expectations. |
Crop estimates can move as the season advances: projected output is revised as more harvest results become available. The August and September values are separate estimates, not competing statements about a fixed final result.
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What the August corn balance said about use and stocks
Alongside its August production estimate, Conab increased projected domestic corn consumption by 152,200 tonnes to 95 million tonnes. It forecast ending stocks of 15.58 million tonnes for the crop cycle. Both figures were estimates for the cycle, not final measurements of realized consumption or stocks. Conab’s supply balance
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What Conab projected for 2026/27
In its September 18 outlook for the following crop year, Conab projected total grain production of 366.6 million tonnes in 2026/27 and corn production near 148 million tonnes. These are outlook figures, not harvested totals; Conab noted that the corn result would depend on weather during crop development.
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How to read these figures
- Use the August estimate when describing the 11th survey: 360.8 million tonnes of grain and 143 million tonnes of corn.
- Use the September update for the later 2025/26 estimate: 361.7 million tonnes of grain and 144 million tonnes of corn.
- Treat production, consumption, and ending-stock figures as estimates unless a release identifies them as realized results.
- Keep crop years distinct: 2025/26 estimates describe the current season in these releases; 2026/27 figures are a following-season outlook.
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