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China’s 2025 trade figures show imports from Latin America rising, while U.S. agricultural exports to China fell sharply. But the available regional totals do not show whether China bought more food from Latin America or Europe, or whether tariffs caused any shift. The March 5, 2025 Reuters report behind the headline forecast that China’s new tariffs on U.S. farm goods could redirect purchases; it did not establish that a lasting, commodity-by-commodity change had already happened.
What the March 2025 forecast actually said
Reuters reported that China’s new tariffs on U.S. farm goods could redirect purchases of meat, dairy and grains toward South America, Europe and the Pacific. The report identified Brazil as a key soybean supplier, Australia as a leading wheat exporter and Europe as a major pork supplier. Those were possible beneficiaries, not confirmed increases in later Chinese imports.
The report also noted a constraint that applies beyond tariffs: China had reduced overall wheat imports in recent months because domestic supplies were ample. A tariff advantage alone does not guarantee extra sales. Demand, local production, market access, prices and shipping logistics all affect whether a buyer changes suppliers.
What China’s 2025 trade figures establish
A 2026 State Council summary of General Administration of Customs figures said China’s imports from Latin America increased 4.9% in 2025. The same summary put two-way trade with the region—imports and exports combined—at 3.93 trillion yuan, up 6.5%. Neither figure is identified as food or agricultural trade, so neither confirms growth in China’s food imports from Latin America.
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The summary reported more specific food-category increases from a different region: imports of edible aquatic products from Oceania rose 37.2% in 2025, and dairy imports from Oceania rose 18.6%. Those figures are evidence of growth in those named categories and region, not evidence of equivalent growth from Latin America or Europe, or of a tariff-driven cause.
China’s General Administration of Customs Deputy Head Wang Jun said, “Looking ahead, China will open its door wider to the world, boasting broad room for import growth. China’s huge market will always be a great opportunity for the world.” This is a broad statement about import opportunity, not a forecast for a specific country or food category.
How the forecast compares with the available evidence
| Commodity or source | March 2025 report | What later evidence establishes |
|---|---|---|
| Soybeans from Brazil | Brazil was identified as a key supplier that could benefit if Chinese purchases shifted away from the United States. | The cited 2025 regional figures do not provide a China import series for Brazilian soybeans or show replacement sales. |
| Wheat from Australia | Australia was identified as a leading wheat exporter that could gain from a shift. | The report said ample domestic wheat supplies were already limiting China’s overall wheat imports. The cited later figures do not establish a 2025 increase in Chinese wheat imports from Australia. |
| Pork from Europe | Europe was described as a major pork supplier that could gain from redirected demand. | The cited later figures do not establish a 2025 increase in Chinese pork imports from Europe. |
| Other food imports | The report discussed possible shifts in meat, dairy and grains toward South America, Europe and the Pacific. | The 2025 increases reported for edible aquatic products and dairy are for Oceania, not Latin America or Europe. |
The available sources therefore do not support a numerical ranking of Latin America against Europe, or a conclusion that either region replaced U.S. supply in particular food categories.
What the U.S. export decline does—and does not—show
The USDA Economic Research Service reported that U.S. agricultural exports to China fell 66% from 2024 to $8.4 billion in 2025. That measures U.S. sales to China; it does not identify which countries, if any, replaced the lost sales.
The Associated Press, citing USDA data, reported the values in rounded terms: U.S. agricultural exports to China were $38 billion in 2022 and $8 billion in 2025. It also reported that U.S. soybean sales to China went from nearly $18 billion in 2022 to $3 billion in 2025. These comparisons document the decline in U.S. sales, not the value of Brazilian soybean or European food sales to China.
For a separate comparison, USDA ERS said U.S. agricultural exports to the European Union reached a record $14.5 billion in 2025, up 13% from 2024. That is U.S. exports to the EU—not China’s imports from Europe—and should not be read as a measure of China’s sourcing.
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Why the 2026 announcements complicate a lasting-shift claim
In May 2026, the Associated Press reported a White House announcement that China would buy U.S. agricultural products at an annualized rate of $17 billion per year for 2026, 2027 and 2028. AP noted that Beijing had not immediately confirmed the terms. The announced rate is a commitment as reported by the White House, not evidence that those purchases have already been completed.
In a July 2026 press conference, China’s Ministry of Commerce described a guiding target for expanding two-way agricultural trade and an in-principle agreement to include agricultural products in a reciprocal tariff-reduction framework. The ministry said, “Businesses will conduct trade independently in accordance with market principles and based on actual demand and market conditions.” That describes the stated operating principle; it does not guarantee a purchase volume.
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Quick Recap
How to read the headline against the evidence
- Forecast: The March 2025 Reuters story said tariffs could redirect purchases and identified potential suppliers and commodities.
- Measured outcome: The official 2025 regional data show higher total imports from Latin America, but do not isolate food or agricultural products.
- Separate export measure: U.S. agricultural exports to China declined in 2025, but that does not reveal who captured the lost sales.
- Policy development: 2026 statements and announcements point to efforts to expand agricultural trade with the United States, without proving completed purchases at the announced level.
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