China’s clean-energy expansion helped drive a notable emissions decline in the first quarter of 2025: Carbon Brief estimated that CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels and cement fell 1.6% year on year, while the latest 12-month total was 1% below its recent peak. But this was not proof that China’s emissions had permanently peaked. Later estimates show that the trend reversed and fluctuated.
What fell, and when?
The initial finding concerned Q1 2025, not a permanent or uninterrupted drop. Carbon Brief’s estimate, published on 15 May 2025, put China’s CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels and cement 1.6% below the same quarter a year earlier. On a rolling 12-month basis, emissions were 1% lower than the recent peak. Carbon Brief described the quarter as the first decline in which clean-power growth was the main driver despite rapidly rising electricity demand. Carbon Brief’s Q1 2025 analysis.
These figures describe different comparisons: the 1.6% change compares one quarter with the same quarter a year earlier; the 1% figure compares a rolling year with the recent peak. Neither means emissions had fallen by that amount every year, nor that the long-term peak was settled.
How did clean energy reduce emissions while electricity use grew?
China’s electricity demand was rising quickly, but wind, solar and nuclear generation grew enough to cover the increase and reduce coal-fired output in Q1 2025. The important change was not simply that China added clean-energy capacity; it was that clean generation supplied enough electricity to displace fossil generation while demand continued to grow.
Outdated Drivers Are Slowing You Down
One free scan finds every outdated or missing driver and matches the right update for your exact hardware.Free scan · exact hardware matchPC Slower Than It Used to Be?
A free scan shows the junk files, broken settings and background clutter dragging Windows down - then fixes them in one click.Free scan · Windows 10 & 11#1 Best Overall
- SAFETY YOU CAN TRUST WITH UL CERTIFICATION: With Emporia Energy, your home energy monitoring is safe, reliable, and certified. The Emporia Vue is UL Listed, meaning it has met rigorous safety standards for electrical products in the U.S. and Canada. This certification ensures that every component has been thoroughly tested to prevent hazards, such as overheating, short-circuiting, or fire, offering you peace of mind as you manage your home’s energy consumption.
- INSTALLS IN CIRCUIT PANEL of most homes with clamp-on sensors. Supports Single phase, Single-split phase, and 2-wire systems. 3-wire systems; 3-phase, 4-wire Wye systems with earthed (TN or TT) neutral (no-Delta) are supported with an additional 200A sensor (sold separately).
- 24/7 ENERGY MANAGEMENT AND MONITORING: Automate, manage and control your home's real power anywhere, anytime to prevent costly repairs, conserve energy, and save costs. Monitor solar / net metering. PROTECTED BY A 1-YEAR WARRANTY.
- LOWER YOUR ELECTRIC BILL: Configure settings in the Emporia Energy App to automate energy management for time of use, peak demand, excess solar, and rewards programs. You can even see live reporting and invaluable savings opportunities instantly. Gauge real-time spending and get actionable notifications and automated energy management to help you reduce costs.
- REAL-TIME ENERGY DATA: REQUIRES 2.4 GHz WIFI WITH AN INTERNET CONNECTION to monitor energy use with iPhone / Android / Web app. Vue sensors collect energy data and are accurate from ±2%. The Vue is UL and CE Listed for your safety. 1 second data is only available in the app (when actively open) and retained 3 hours. Minute and hour data are retained in the cloud. 1 minute data is retained 7 days, 1 hour data is retained indefinitely. Export cloud data whenever you want in the app.
That distinction matters because adding renewables does not automatically lower emissions. If demand grows faster than clean generation, or if available wind and solar power is curtailed rather than delivered, fossil-fuel generation can remain high or rise. The Q1 2025 result was notable precisely because clean-power growth outpaced demand growth.
What did full-year 2025 show?
Two later assessments support the view that clean power was reshaping China’s electricity mix in 2025, but they measure different things and should not be treated as interchangeable emissions totals.
Rank #2
- ⚡ EASY INSTALLATION: Installs in circuit panel of most homes with clamp-on sensors. Supports single-phase up to 240VAC line-neutral; single, split-phase 120/240VAC; and three-phase up to 415Y/240VAC (no Delta). The branch lines can automatically match different phases and have no restrictions in terms of quantity and voltage.Panels with access only to busbars will need flexible sensors available from SEM-Meter.
- ⚡ ENERGY MONITORING ANYTIME, ANYWHERE: Monitor your home's real power anywhere, anytime to prevent costly repairs, conserve energy, and save costs. Monitor solar / net metering. Light commercial 3 phase option available as a separate bundle. Protected by a 1-year warranty.
- ⚡ VARIOUS ELECTRICAL APPLIANCE MONITORING: Comes with 16 50A sensors to accurately monitor your air conditioner, furnace, water heater, washer, dryer, range, etc.
- ⚡ LOWER YOUR ELECTRIC BILL: SEM-Meter measures real-time spending and gets actionable notifications to understand where savings can be made, both to lower your electric bill and to conserve energy and protect the planet’s resources. Be an environmentalist.
- ⚡ REAL-TIME ENERGY DATA: Connect SEM-Meter device via 2.4GHz WiFi to monitor energy usage, with an accuracy range of 1%. View usage in real time through Android/Apple software. Statistics of power usage in now/day/week/month/year format: the validity period of hourly exported data is 90 days, and the exported data of day/month/year data is permanent, available at any time Export from application.
| Source and period | Finding | What it measures |
|---|---|---|
| Ember, review of 2025 | Clean electricity met all additional electricity demand; electricity demand rose 5%, while thermal generation fell 0.7%. | Electricity generation and demand, not a total-economy CO₂ estimate. Ember’s China Energy Transition Review 2026. |
| International Energy Agency, 2025 estimate | China’s energy-related CO₂ emissions fell around 0.5%; coal emissions declined alongside a 1.4% decrease in coal-fired generation. | Energy-related emissions, a different scope from Carbon Brief’s fossil-fuels-and-cement estimate. IEA’s Global Energy Review 2026. |
Read together, these findings indicate that clean generation covered the growth in power demand and that fossil generation weakened. They do not imply that every emissions source fell or that the two publishers calculated the same emissions series.
Did China’s emissions keep falling in 2026?
No. Carbon Brief estimated that emissions rose 2% year on year in Q1 2026. Its Q2 estimate then showed a 1% year-on-year fall, leaving emissions marginally higher over the first half of 2026. These quarterly estimates cover fossil fuels and industrial processes and should not be merged directly with the IEA’s energy-related indicator or Ember’s electricity statistics.
Free tools Windows power users keep installed
One-click scans. No signup required.
Rank #3
- EM16P MODEL & LOCAL CONTROL & DATA PRIVACY: Access your home energy monitor data locally via Built-in Web UI, Open API, and MQTT without relying on cloud services. Unlike cloud-dependent monitors, Refoss ensures your data stays within your home network. Direct local access protects your privacy while giving you 100% full control of your home energy system.
- NATIVE HOME ASSISTANT & OPENCLAW AI: Experience seamless Native Home Assistant integration right out of the box—no firmware flashing or complex coding required. Featuring ✨NEW✨ OpenClaw Support, it enables AI-driven automation for smarter, real-time energy management and seamless smart home control.
- MAXIMIZE SOLAR & ZERO FEED-IN AUTOMATION: Designed for solar homes, the power monitor works with the Refoss app and Home Assistant to automatically use surplus solar power. Appliances like EV chargers, washing machines, and water heaters are powered during midday peaks, maximizing solar self-consumption and reducing low-value electricity feed-in to the grid. Optimizes usage and reduces bills.
- REAL-TIME MONITORING & ±1% ACCURACY: Monitor voltage, current, active power, and power factor of major appliances. Provides ±1% accuracy (200A: 2–200A; 60A: 1–60A) and ±2% at low current. Daily data stored up to 5 years and exportable. With no subscriptions or hidden fees, you get deep historical insights to help you identify every energy-saving opportunity and save 10–20% on monthly bills.
- SMART ALERTS & CIRCUIT-LEVEL CONTROL: Set usage targets for each individual circuit and receive instant alerts when appliances exceed normal consumption. Refoss app supports automation and peak management to optimize schedules, reduce peaks, and improve efficiency. Real-time electricity usage monitor for circuit-level insights.
Q1 2026: emissions increased
Carbon Brief linked the Q1 increase to rising emissions and “wasted” wind and solar generation—that is, renewable electricity that was curtailed rather than used. The estimate illustrates why installed capacity alone is not enough: grid and market constraints affect how much clean power actually displaces fossil generation. Carbon Brief’s Q1 2026 analysis.
Q2 2026: the overall fall was mainly oil-driven
In Q2, lower oil use was the main reason for the overall emissions decline. Power-sector emissions, by contrast, rose amid greater coal use and renewable curtailment. The quarter therefore does not show that clean electricity was responsible for the economy-wide drop. Carbon Brief’s Q2 2026 analysis.
Rank #4
- SAFE & RELIABLE: Meross smart energy consumption monitor is ETL‑certified and compliant with the UL 61010 testing standard, ensuring safe and reliable home energy monitoring. Works with most US homes: single-phase 2-wire systems, single-split phase 3-wire systems, and 3-phase 4-wire Wye systems with earthed (TN or TT) neutral (no Delta). Easy clamp‑on design installs in minutes. Invert CT readings in the app—no physical flipping. PROTECTED BY 2-YEAR WARRANTY for worry-free use.
- TRACK ENERGY & CUT BILLS: Track power, voltage, current, and power factor within ±1% accuracy. Clear power usage and cost charts by minute/hour/day/month/year help you easily understand your energy use. Store up to 5 years of data and export hourly reports for deep analysis. Most users save 10–20% on energy costs by spotting energy hogs and getting accurate insights to cut their bills.
- 24/7 ENERGY MONITORING + SMART ALERTS: Real-time home energy monitoring from anywhere. Set custom alerts for unusual usage spikes and threshold breaches for total peace of mind. Catch issues early with no subscriptions, no cloud lock‑in, and no hidden fees — all built-in. Supports 2 main circuits (200A) + 16 branch circuits (60A), making it perfect for precise, circuit-level energy monitoring.
- MAXIMIZE YOUR SOLAR SAVINGS (HOME ASSISTANT): This solar energy monitor integrates with Home Assistant to detect solar surplus and automatically power EV chargers, water heaters, and other high‑use appliances. Stop wasting solar energy—use it yourself and cut your electricity bill faster. The perfect home energy monitor for solar homes.
- LOCAL DATA, FULL PRIVACY, NO SUBSCRIPTIONS: Connect seamlessly with Home Assistant for advanced energy automation. All energy data stays local—no cloud, no delays, no privacy concerns. Take full control of your home energy, reduce waste, and protect your privacy. Supports Open API and Web Control.
Does this mean China’s emissions have peaked?
Not on the evidence of these figures alone. The Q1 2025 rolling-year estimate was only 1% below the recent peak, and subsequent quarterly estimates moved in both directions. A few quarters of decline—even when clean energy is a major cause—cannot establish a durable peak. The Q1 and Q2 2026 results also show that the reasons for a change can differ by quarter: demand for oil, coal generation and the ability to use renewable output all matter.
For a lasting decline, clean electricity must continue to grow faster than power demand and be delivered when and where it can replace fossil generation. The 2025 results offer evidence of that happening; the later reversals and curtailment show why the trend remains uncertain.
Recommended Free Tools
Best Value
- SAFETY YOU CAN TRUST WITH UL CERTIFICATION: With Emporia Energy, your home energy monitoring is safe, reliable, and certified. The Emporia Vue is UL Listed, meaning it has met rigorous safety standards for electrical products in the U.S. and Canada. This certification ensures that every component has been thoroughly tested to prevent hazards, such as overheating, short-circuiting, or fire, offering you peace of mind as you manage your home’s energy consumption.
- INSTALLS IN CIRCUIT PANEL of most homes with clamp-on sensors. Supports Single phase, Single-split phase, and 2-wire systems. 3-wire systems; 3-phase, 4-wire Wye systems with earthed (TN or TT) neutral (no-Delta) are supported with an additional 200A sensor (sold separately).
- 24/7 ENERGY MANAGEMENT AND MONITORING: Automate, manage and control your home's real power anywhere, anytime to prevent costly repairs, conserve energy, and save costs. Monitor solar / net metering. PROTECTED BY A 1-YEAR WARRANTY.
- LOWER YOUR ELECTRIC BILL: Configure settings in the Emporia Energy App to automate energy management for time of use, peak demand, excess solar, and rewards programs. You can even see live reporting and invaluable savings opportunities instantly. Gauge real-time spending and get actionable notifications and automated energy management to help you reduce costs.
- REAL-TIME ENERGY DATA: REQUIRES 2.4 GHz WIFI WITH AN INTERNET CONNECTION to monitor energy use with iPhone / Android / Web app. Vue sensors collect energy data and are accurate from ±2%. The Vue is UL and CE Listed for your safety. 1 second data is only available in the app (when actively open) and retained 3 hours. Minute and hour data are retained in the cloud. 1 minute data is retained 7 days, 1 hour data is retained indefinitely. Export cloud data whenever you want in the app.
How Carbon Brief’s estimates differ from other figures
Carbon Brief’s estimates combine official statistics on fuel and cement production, customs data for imports and exports, commercial inventory data and emissions factors; its sector allocation also uses electricity data. Its Q1 2025 article reports fossil-fuel-and-cement CO₂, while its Q1 2026 analysis covers fossil fuels and industrial processes. The IEA’s 2025 figure is for energy-related CO₂, and Ember’s figures describe electricity demand and generation. Those scopes and methods differ, so comparisons should retain the named source, period and metric rather than implying a single directly comparable series.
Quick Recap
Product prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on Amazon at the time of purchase will apply.
