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Outbyte Driver Updater FREEFix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesFind Drivers →Outbyte PC Repair FREERepair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsFix Now →Brazil is forecast to export a record 117.5 million metric tons of soybeans in marketing year (MY) 2026/27, while China’s soybean imports are projected to rise to 114 million metric tons. But “U.S. out of the market” is too sweeping: the United States still has a substantial export forecast, and USDA reported a U.S. soybean sale to China for delivery in 2026/27. These are forecasts and announced sales—not completed shipments or final trade totals.
Will Brazil export a record amount of soybeans in 2026/27?
Yes, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service (USDA ERS) May 2026 outlook. It projected Brazil’s soybean exports at 117.5 million metric tons in MY 2026/27, a record if realized. The same outlook projected record production of 186.0 million metric tons and a 62 percent share of global soybean trade. These are forecasts for a marketing year, not confirmed results. USDA ERS, Oil Crops Outlook: May 2026
The forecast also included Brazilian soybean crushing of 65.0 million metric tons, reflecting demand for soybean meal and oil. Production is not the same as exportable supply: domestic processing uses part of the crop, so the production, crush, and export figures describe distinct uses of the available soybeans.
How much soy is China expected to buy?
USDA’s May 2026 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates projected China’s soybean imports at 114 million metric tons in MY 2026/27, up 2 million metric tons from the prior marketing year. That figure is China’s projected total imports from all origins; it is not a forecast of how much China will buy specifically from Brazil. USDA WASDE-671, May 2026
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Brazil is a major supplier to China, but the import forecast alone does not establish the origin of future purchases. As USDA Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) put it in an August 2025 transport report, “China is the largest world soybean buyer and Brazil is its major supplier.” The report’s statement describes the broader trade relationship, not a guarantee that every additional Chinese purchase will come from Brazil. USDA AMS, Brazil Soybean Transportation, 2nd quarter 2025
Is the United States out of the soybean market?
No—not if “out” means that the United States has no exports or no sales to China. USDA ERS’s September 18, 2026 update forecast U.S. soybean exports at 1.69 billion bushels for MY 2026/27, an increase of 25 million bushels from its previous forecast. The update also raised the U.S. production forecast to 4.5 billion bushels, citing higher acreage and yield. USDA ERS, September 18, 2026 update
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USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) separately reported a sale of 120,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans to China for delivery during MY 2026/27 on September 24, 2026, as well as sales to China on September 18. A reported sale is not proof that the beans were shipped or ultimately delivered. Nor does one sale show that the United States has regained market share. It does, however, contradict a literal claim of zero U.S. access to Chinese buyers. USDA FAS, Export Sales Reporting
“Out of the market” could instead refer to a particular buying window, a decline in U.S. market share, or weak Chinese purchases over a specified period. Those narrower claims require dated evidence for that period and measure. Forecast exports, announced sales, shipments, and market share are different indicators and should not be treated as interchangeable.
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What do Brazil’s latest export numbers show?
Brazil’s Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services (MDIC) reported 7.4 million metric tons of soybean exports in September 2026, up 0.2 percent from September 2025. Its dashboard also showed January exports of 1.9 million metric tons, 75.5 percent higher year over year. The dashboard was updated October 6, 2026. Brazil MDIC consolidated trade dashboard
These are calendar-month customs observations, whereas USDA’s 117.5-million-ton figure is a forecast for MY 2026/27. A single month’s exports neither confirm nor disprove the full marketing-year forecast, and the two time periods should not be compared as if they were equivalent.
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- Productive - Chiba Green Soybean germinates in 10-14 days when soil temps are 65-75°F. Plant 1” deep and space 4-6” apart in an area with full sun. This variety will grow 1-3’ tall with a spread of 12-16”. Beans will mature in 65-75 days, plant in USDA zones 3-10.
- Good Eats - Harvest when pods are green and enjoy edamame or allow the pods to dry and shell to eat them boiled or steamed.
- Easy to Grow - Instructions included on each packet. Plus, we are available to answer all your questions. If these seeds don’t germinate, we will happily make it right for you.
- Safe and Sustainable - Our operation is fully solar powered, and Sow Right Seeds has taken the Safe Seed Pledge to sell only fresh Non-GMO heirloom seeds for you and your family.
Why are Brazilian soybeans competitive?
Brazil’s position reflects more than the size of its harvest. USDA AMS’s August 2025 transportation report described public and private investment in infrastructure, competition among truck, rail, and barge routes, and efficiency gains at southern ports as factors that lowered transport costs and strengthened Brazil’s competitiveness.
The report said Santos, Paranaguá, Rio Grande, and São Francisco do Sul accounted for nearly 66 percent of Brazil’s soybean exports to China in the first half of 2025. It also recorded 98.8 million metric tons of Brazilian soybean exports in 2024 and 64.9 million metric tons in January–June 2025, citing Comex Stat/MDIC. These historical figures help explain the logistics behind Brazil’s position; they are not 2026 freight rates or port shares.
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