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Brazil’s soybean yields have risen over the long run, but the path is not guaranteed: weather can disrupt gains, and production can grow through larger planted area as well as better yields. USDA’s January 2026 forecast points to continued expansion for marketing year 2025/26, while longer-term studies show that how Brazil expands—especially whether growth uses existing livestock land or converts native vegetation—matters for the environmental cost.
What do the latest figures say about Brazilian soybean yields?
The available estimates tell three different stories: a historical trend, a USDA crop forecast, and modeled long-term scenarios. They should not be treated as interchangeable. Yield measures output per hectare; production also depends on how much land is harvested.
| Evidence | Figure | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, Brazil 30-year series, March 2025 | Trend level of 3.5135 metric tons per hectare; fitted slope of 0.0423 metric tons per hectare per year; record yield in marketing year 2022/23 | These are statistics from the series and its fitted trend, not a guaranteed rate of future improvement. USDA’s Brazil report |
| USDA Economic Research Service forecast for marketing year 2025/26, published January 14, 2026 | Yield: 3.63 metric tons per hectare; production: 178.0 million metric tons; harvested area: 49.1 million hectares | A forecast, not a final harvest result. USDA raised its production forecast by 3 million metric tons, citing higher harvested area and yield. USDA, Oil Crops Outlook: January 2026 |
| Nature Sustainability modeled alternative scenario, 2022 | 162 million metric tons of production and 58% lower modeled global-warming impact than continuation of current trends | A scenario combining faster yield improvement with expansion onto land currently used for livestock—not a forecast or observed outcome. Study in Nature Sustainability |
The USDA trendline supports a positive long-run direction, but neither it nor a single-season forecast establishes what yields will be in a particular future year. The forecast and the 30-year trend calculation also refer to different kinds of evidence.
Why can production rise even if yields do not?
Total soybean production reflects both yield per hectare and harvested area. Brazil can therefore increase output by improving yields, harvesting more land, or combining the two. A headline production increase alone does not show which mechanism drove it or whether land conversion occurred.
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In its January 2026 outlook, USDA attributed its higher 2025/26 production forecast to increases in both harvested area and yield. That distinction matters when interpreting Brazil’s expansion: yield growth can raise output on existing farmland, while area growth may involve land already used for agriculture or conversion of natural vegetation, with very different consequences.
How much can weather change the yield outlook?
A rising long-term trend does not insulate crops from poor growing conditions. A 2022 study in Nature Climate Change found that Brazilian agricultural yields declined in years with unusually low rainfall or high aridity during early crop development, including in rainfed and irrigated areas. The study’s finding is about climate exposure and agricultural yields; it should not be read as a precise prediction for national soybean production in a future season. Read the study, “Climatic limit for agriculture in Brazil”.
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For a nearer-term illustration, USDA’s January 2026 report described December 2025 rainfall as favorable in most of Brazil and conditions as good across major producing states. It also reported that CONAB planting progress had reached 94.1% in 12 main producing regions as of December 13, 2025. Those are dated in-season observations, not a full-season result or a signal that later weather cannot affect yields.
The same climate study estimated that 28% of current agricultural lands had moved outside its defined optimum climate space by the time of publication, and projected 51% by 2030 and 74% by 2060 under its scenarios. These are study-specific climate-space estimates and projections; they do not mean those shares of Brazil’s soybean output will be lost. The authors also identify retaining native vegetation as important for regional climate stabilization.
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What do land-use scenarios imply about expansion?
Land conversion is not an inevitable consequence of higher production, but the route chosen for growth affects environmental impacts. A 2022 Nature Sustainability study modeled continuation of current soybean yield and area trends as converting an additional 5.7 million hectares of forests and savannas over 15 years. That is a conditional scenario result, not a prediction that this amount will necessarily be converted. Embrapa’s 2023 publication record summarizing the study.
The alternative scenario in the study paired faster yield improvement with expansion only onto land then used for livestock. It reached the production and modeled-impact outcomes shown above without deforestation. The result depends on the scenario’s assumptions; it does not establish that policy, markets, or farmers will produce that outcome. Embrapa’s summary and the paper abstract surface different emissions figures for the associated scenario, so no emissions total is stated here.
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Could farm practices lift yields further?
One possible pathway is improving crop sequences and soil conditions. An Embrapa Cerrados publication record for a 2026 meta-analysis reports that researchers assessed 55 studies across 33 Brazilian locations and found positive soybean-yield effects when deep-rooted tropical grasses were used as preceding crops across the agronomic and environmental conditions studied. Embrapa Cerrados’ publication record.
This supports treating agronomic intensification as a potential contributor to yield growth, not assigning a specific nationwide increase to one practice. Results across study locations do not establish the gain any particular farm or region will achieve.
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How should readers track Brazil’s next crop estimates?
CONAB and USDA publish estimates on different schedules and may use different reference periods or methods. Compare each estimate with its publisher and release date, and keep marketing-year forecasts separate from Brazilian crop-survey results. Do not combine figures from the two agencies without identifying their source and period.
- CONAB’s grain harvest bulletin index lists recurring crop surveys; the page shows its 12th 2025/26 survey posted September 15, 2026.
- CONAB’s crop-progress page describes weekly reporting on planting and harvest percentages, crop development stages, and observed and forecast conditions.
The cited sources do not establish a comparable current state-by-state yield ranking. A national average cannot be used to infer which state currently leads or is improving fastest.
What is the outlook for soybean yields in Brazil?
The evidence points to a positive long-run yield trend alongside material year-to-year weather risk. The next production gains may come from a mix of yield improvement and additional harvested area; which mix prevails will shape both supply growth and land-use impacts. Forecasts describe a particular crop year, while the climate and land-use studies describe conditional risks and scenarios—not a fixed destination for Brazil’s soybean sector.
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