Brazil’s larger 2024/25 corn harvest did not guarantee higher exports in every forecast. Conab’s August 2025 crop-cycle outlook projected exports rising to 40 million tonnes from 38.5 million tonnes in 2023/24; a separate forecast reported by University of Illinois farmdoc projected calendar-year 2025 exports falling 9% from 2024. The estimates use different periods and comparison baselines, so they are not direct contradictions.
How large was Brazil’s 2024/25 corn harvest?
In its August 2025 11th survey, Brazil’s National Supply Company (Conab) estimated total 2024/25 corn production at 137 million tonnes, a record for its series. It put the second crop at 109.6 million tonnes. The second crop, commonly called safrinha, is the largest part of Brazil’s corn supply.
A June 2025 University of Illinois farmdoc analysis, reporting Conab estimates in bushels, described the total crop as 4,995 million bushels—448 million bushels, or 10%, above the previous season. It called this the second-largest crop on record in its framing. farmdoc also said the second crop represented 78% of production and was expected to reach 3,929 million bushels, up 11%; it noted that favorable April and May rainfall benefited most second-crop regions. These figures are reported in a different unit and source framing from Conab’s August estimate, rather than being interchangeable totals. University of Illinois farmdoc, June 9, 2025.
Why did one forecast show exports falling?
The decline concerned calendar-year shipments, not every estimate of exports associated with the 2024/25 crop. farmdoc reported Rabobank’s forecast that Brazil would export 1,417 million bushels during January–December 2025, 9% below the 1,516 million bushels shipped in calendar 2024. This is a forecast relayed by farmdoc, not a verified final 2025 trade total. farmdoc’s account of Rabobank’s forecast.
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More corn was expected to stay in Brazil
The explanation was growing domestic use, especially for animal feed and corn ethanol. farmdoc relayed Conab’s estimate that domestic consumption in 2025 would reach 3,516 million bushels, 6.3% above the prior season. A larger crop can therefore coexist with lower calendar-year exports if internal demand absorbs a greater share of available corn. University of Illinois farmdoc.
Why did Conab project crop-cycle exports rising?
Conab’s August 2025 outlook measured exports over the 2024/25 crop cycle. It projected 40 million tonnes, compared with 38.5 million tonnes exported in 2023/24. Conab cited greater availability from the second crop and the possibility that international demand would shift toward South American corn. Conab grain-crop survey and estimates.
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That projection and the calendar-year decline differ along two important axes:
- Period: Conab considered the 2024/25 crop cycle; the Rabobank forecast covered January through December 2025.
- Baseline: Conab compared with the prior crop cycle; the calendar-year forecast compared with shipments in 2024.
They are separate forecasts, not a head-to-head revision using the same dates and baseline. Forecasts also reflect information available when published.
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How should other production estimates be read?
USDA Foreign Agricultural Service reporting uses a March–February marketing year. Its later update estimated 2024/25 production at 136 million metric tons and 2025/26 at 133 million metric tons. Those estimates provide another agency and time-frame perspective; they do not replace either export projection above. USDA FAS, Grain: World Markets and Trade.
When comparing any Brazil corn estimate, check the measure and label before interpreting the direction:
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- Time basis: crop or marketing year versus calendar year.
- Comparison: prior crop cycle versus prior calendar year.
- Measure: forecast exports, actual shipments, or domestic consumption.
- Unit and publisher: tonnes or bushels, and whether the figure comes from Conab, Rabobank as reported by farmdoc, or USDA FAS.
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