Yes—Brazil is now the stronger competitor in soybean exports, especially in the global market and in sales to China. USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) says Brazil overtook the United States in soybean exports in marketing year 2012/13. In calendar year 2024, Brazil exported 98.8 million metric tons (mmt), including 72.6 mmt to China. That establishes Brazil’s larger export position; it does not, by itself, prove that Brazilian soybeans always cost less to produce or deliver.
How Brazil moved ahead of the United States
Brazil’s lead is the result of a long-term expansion, not a single harvest. USDA ERS links the country’s rise to development of the Cerrado savannah and the extension of soybean production into Brazil’s inland frontier. Brazil and the United States now supply most global soybean exports, according to ERS. USDA ERS’s global-market analysis says Brazil exported more soybeans than the United States starting in marketing year (MY) 2012/13.
The longer-term outlook also points to Brazil gaining share, but the figures beyond recent years are projections, not results already achieved. ERS projected Brazil’s share of global soybean trade would rise from 51.6% in MY 2021/22 to 60.6% in MY 2032/33. Those trade-share estimates describe marketing years and global trade, not calendar-year export tonnage.
Why China is the center of the competition
China is the pivotal buyer because it accounts for more than 60% of world soybean imports, according to USDA ERS’s Brazil country analysis. A country that wins a larger share of China’s demand can strengthen its position in the global export market, even if sales to other destinations move differently.
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USDA Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) data show that Brazil exported 98.8 mmt of soybeans in calendar year 2024, down from 101.9 mmt in 2023. Of the 2024 total, 72.6 mmt went to China, compared with 74.5 mmt in 2023. China therefore received 73% of Brazil’s 2024 soybean exports. The totals and destination figures are calendar-year data, not marketing-year comparisons with U.S. exports. USDA AMS’s 2024 transportation overview reports these export and destination figures.
More recent quarterly data show the competition continuing. USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) Brazil Post, using data from Chinese Customs, the U.S. Census Bureau, and Brazil’s Ministry of Development, Industry, and Trade, reported that Brazil shipped 16.9 mmt of soybeans to China in the first quarter of 2025, nearly 7% more than the 15.8 mmt shipped in the first quarter of 2024. The same report said China’s imports from the United States fell 8% year over year in that quarter. The comparison is specific to Q1 and those cited data sources; it should not be treated as a full-year result. FAS Brazil Post’s 2025 update cautions that trade-data sources and methods can differ.
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What export figures do—and do not—say about competitiveness
Export volume shows where sales are going, but it is not a direct measure of profit or of which country can supply every buyer at the lowest cost. A fair comparison of U.S. and Brazilian competitiveness needs the same destination, time period, and cost basis. USDA ERS identifies the relevant components as farm prices and production costs, internal transport and handling, and shipment to a shared export destination. ERS’s comparison framework also points to fuel and fertilizer costs, credit and storage constraints, transport infrastructure, and environmental pressures as factors affecting Brazilian agriculture.
- At the farm: Compare farmgate prices and production costs over the same period. A lower export price alone does not establish lower production costs or higher producer returns.
- From farm to port: Include inland freight, handling, storage, and port access. Brazil’s production frontier is inland, so transport costs and bottlenecks matter to the price offered at an export terminal.
- Across the ocean: Compare freight and delivered prices to the same destination. A route-specific Brazilian figure cannot establish a universal advantage over U.S. shipments.
- Across dates and currencies: Account for exchange rates, tariff conditions, and seasonal timing. Each can affect relative prices and the timing of sales.
AMS reports that Brazil’s average soybean export price in 2024 was $434.58 per metric ton, nearly 17% below the 2023 average of $522.67. The Brazilian real depreciated nearly 8% against the U.S. dollar during 2024, and farmgate prices fell in both dollar and real terms. These are reported Brazilian price and currency movements, not a like-for-like U.S.-versus-Brazil comparison. The AMS overview also reports that export prices and several transportation costs declined during 2024.
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A route-level example, not a national average
For soybeans moving from North Mato Grosso to Santos and then to Shanghai, AMS reports 2024 average truck transport of $83.99 per metric ton and total transportation of $118.59 per metric ton. The report gives a landed cost of $485.93 per metric ton for that route. These numbers describe one route and set of movements; they are not a general cost for all Brazilian exports. A valid comparison would require U.S. shipment costs calculated to the same destination and on the same basis.
Ports, timing, and supply-chain concentration
Brazil’s export strength depends partly on getting inland production to ports and then moving it to buyers. In 2024, six ports handled 90% of Brazilian soybean exports to China. Nearly 70% of China-bound shipments originated from southern ports, 22% from northeastern ports, and 8% from ports along the Amazon River, according to USDA AMS. That concentration makes transport links and port capacity important to Brazil’s ability to serve its leading market.
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Seasonality also matters: annual totals can conceal shifts between quarters, while marketing-year totals and calendar-year totals cover different reporting periods. The Q1 2025 China figures are useful evidence of recent trade direction, but they cannot be substituted for full-year export totals or compared directly with a marketing-year share without aligning the periods and definitions.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What the 2025/26 outlook suggests
In 2025, FAS Brazil Post raised its forecast for Brazilian soybean exports in MY 2025/26 to 114 mmt, 1.7% above its original 112 mmt forecast. The report cited possible opportunities arising from ongoing tariff disputes and market strategy. This is a forecast, not an achieved export total, and it does not guarantee that Brazil will capture any particular share of U.S. sales. The FAS Post report also notes that trade-data sources and methodologies can differ.
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How to read the rivalry without overclaiming
The evidence supports a clear conclusion about export position: Brazil overtook the United States in soybean exports in MY 2012/13, has a large global-trade share, and supplied most of its 2024 exports to China. It does not establish a single, current U.S.-versus-Brazil delivered-cost comparison. That would require harmonized prices and costs for both countries, measured over the same period and to the same destination.
It is also important to keep related trade measures distinct. ERS says soybeans and soybean products together accounted for nearly 9% of global agricultural trade value in its FY 2024 year-in-review; that figure is not the share represented by soybean-bean exports alone. The ERS year-in-review states the broader category and measure.
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