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Brazilian beef exporters faced higher freight costs, route uncertainty and a fall in shipments to Middle Eastern and nearby markets after the conflict began. But the trade figures do not show a nationwide export collapse: Brazil’s beef exports were up year over year through August 2026, even as shipments to China fell sharply in August. The available figures do not isolate how much of the change was caused by the conflict.
How much Brazilian beef goes to the Middle East?
On March 4, 2026, Reuters reported an estimate from Roberto Perosa, president of the Brazilian Beef Exporters Association (ABIEC): about 10% of Brazilian beef shipments were destined for the Middle East, while an estimated 30% to 40% passed through the region en route to other markets, including Southeast Asia and China. These are industry estimates reported at the conflict’s outset—not an audited count of cargoes ultimately delayed, lost or rerouted.
The distinction matters. Direct sales depend on demand from buyers in the region; transit exposure concerns the route taken by cargoes bound elsewhere. A shipment passing through a disrupted corridor is exposed to logistical risk without necessarily being a sale to a Middle Eastern customer.
How did the conflict affect routes and freight?
The immediate warning was about logistics and cost. Reuters reported on March 4 that exporters were not receiving new bookings and that Perosa said the cost of some beef-container shipments from South America to the Middle East had tripled to US$6,000. That was a dated estimate for some routes, not a current freight quote or a price applying to every shipment.
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By March 27, Reuters reported that exporters were adapting by rerouting shipments through the Red Sea and Suez Canal, using alternative ports and, in some cases, overland trucking to reach buyers including Iraq, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Those alternatives were longer and more expensive. The same Reuters report described the conflict’s effects on beef exporters as limited so far, with strong demand elsewhere cushioning the trade.
Higher freight prices, unavailable bookings, delays and rerouting are different problems. A higher quote raises the cost of moving cargo; a lack of bookings can prevent a shipment from being arranged; a longer route can add time as well as expense. The OECD’s June 2026 assessment of the conflict describes disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and higher refined-product and marine bunker-fuel prices, which add costs across transport and production chains. It does not measure the conflict’s specific net effect on Brazilian beef export revenue.
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Did Brazil’s beef exports fall because of the conflict?
Regional shipments did fall in March, but the national total moved differently. CNN Brasil, reporting ABIEC figures compiled from Brazilian trade data from MDIC/Secex, said shipments to Middle Eastern countries and nearby markets fell from 22,900 tonnes in February to 18,200 tonnes in March 2026, a month-over-month decline of 20.5%. The value of those regional sales fell from US$137.5 million to US$115.6 million, down 15.9%.
For Brazil as a whole, the same report put March beef exports at 270,800 tonnes, worth US$1.48 billion. Compared with March 2025, national export volume was up 9.1% and value up 26%, according to the ABIEC/MDIC-Secex figures reported by CNN Brasil. A regional decline can therefore coincide with growth in the country’s total exports.
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| Measure | Reported figure | What it shows |
|---|---|---|
| Shipments to Middle Eastern countries and nearby markets, March 2026 | 18,200 tonnes, down 20.5% from 22,900 tonnes in February; ABIEC figures compiled from MDIC/Secex data, reported by CNN Brasil on April 13, 2026 | A month-over-month fall in the regional grouping, not a measure of all Brazilian exports |
| Brazilian beef exports overall, March 2026 | 270,800 tonnes and US$1.48 billion; volume up 9.1% and value up 26% year over year; ABIEC/MDIC-Secex figures reported by CNN Brasil | National exports grew year over year despite the regional decline |
| Brazilian beef exports overall, January–August 2026 | 2.202 million tonnes, up 5.3%, and US$12.79 billion, up 21.7%; ABIEC figures based on MDIC data | Cumulative exports remained above the same period in 2025 |
| Brazilian beef exports overall, August 2026 | 233,500 tonnes, down 22.2% from August 2025; ABIEC figures based on MDIC data | A weaker month within a year-to-date total that was still higher |
The figures above establish what happened to shipments and their value, not why each change happened. In its September 8 release, ABIEC linked the sharp fall in China-bound shipments in August to exhaustion of the Chinese safeguard quota, as assessed by the industry, and to the timing of cargoes in transit. The available sources do not establish the conflict’s exact net effect on Brazilian beef export revenue.
Could other markets replace lost sales?
Brazilian exporters had destinations beyond the Middle East, and ABIEC’s January–August figures show growth in several markets. Saudi Arabia received 50,000 tonnes, up 24.9% year over year, and Jordan received 15,100 tonnes, up 51.6%. In August alone, reported shipments included 35,300 tonnes to the United States, 23,400 tonnes to the European Union, 22,000 tonnes to Russia and 17,400 tonnes to Chile.
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Those destinations do not automatically replace one another. ABIEC has said that buyers seek different products and cuts, and that the EU market is strategically important partly because of the value and specific profile of the cuts sold there. The association separately reported that exports to the EU had been interrupted amid new requirements related to antimicrobial use. That market-access issue is distinct from the Middle East conflict; ABIEC’s September 2 statement does not, by itself, establish the status after that date.
Commercial engagement in Saudi Arabia also continued. In an October 6 news listing, ABIEC reported that ten Brazilian companies took part in the Saudi Food Show, holding 220 meetings. The association reported more than US$8 million in business and US$287 million in prospective business over the following 12 months. The prospective amount is an expectation, not realized sales.
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What the export figures mean—and what they do not
The clearest reading is that the conflict created a real logistics risk and coincided with a March decline in shipments to a regional grouping, while aggregate Brazilian exports continued to grow year over year through August. Exporters rerouted cargoes, and other markets helped support the national total. At the same time, China’s safeguard quota and a separate EU market-access issue affected the wider trade picture.
These figures cannot show how much revenue Brazil would have earned without the conflict, how many shipments were delayed, or whether any particular freight rate remains in effect. The March exposure and freight estimates were attributed to ABIEC’s president by Reuters; the later export totals are aggregate trade data. Neither set, on its own, isolates the conflict’s causal effect.
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