Most corporate economists surveyed by Wolters Kluwer said the increase in U.S. borrowing costs since August was not large enough to cool inflation or materially slow growth. The finding, reported by CFO Dive on Oct. 12, 2026, is a survey opinion—not proof that monetary policy has had no effect or that additional rate increases will fail.
What the survey found
Wolters Kluwer reported that 59% of the corporate economists it surveyed considered the rise in borrowing costs since August too small to cool inflation or slow economic growth. The material reported by CFO Dive does not state the survey’s sample size, field dates, question wording or weighting method, so the percentage should be read as a snapshot of respondents’ views rather than a precisely measured estimate of all economists or businesses.
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Price pressures were respondents’ largest perceived threat to the economy. They expected core personal-consumption-expenditures (PCE) inflation to edge higher in the near term, ease only modestly in the second half of 2027 and remain above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
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Persistent inflation expectations and stronger growth forecasts help explain the survey’s policy view. Eighty-four percent of respondents expected one additional 0.25-percentage-point federal-funds-rate increase before 2027. That is a forecast of what policymakers might do, not a commitment by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
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CFO Dive said the FOMC had raised its benchmark rate by a quarter point the previous month, bringing the target range to 3.75%–4%, with all 12 voting members supporting the move. It also reported that the Fed’s September projections showed a median path consistent with one more quarter-point increase. Those details are time-sensitive and should be checked against the latest official FOMC release when making decisions after this report’s publication window.
Inflation and growth outlooks point in the same direction
The surveyed economists raised their estimate for third-quarter GDP growth to 2.9%, a 0.4-percentage-point upward revision. They attributed the change to stronger consumer spending and business investment. This is an estimate made at the survey date, not a later government GDP release.
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| Measure | Reported survey expectation | How to interpret it |
|---|---|---|
| Core PCE inflation | Near-term increase; slight easing in the second half of 2027; still above 2% | Respondents’ outlook, not observed inflation data |
| Additional Fed move | 84% expected one more 0.25-point increase before 2027 | Probability-style opinion, not an FOMC decision |
| Third-quarter GDP growth | 2.9%, revised up 0.4 percentage point | Survey estimate, not a reported result |
| Business spending growth | 12.6% annual rate in 2026; 6.2% in 2027 | Forecast rates, not completed spending totals |
The combination is significant: respondents saw an economy strong enough to support faster-than-expected output and investment while still generating uncomfortable price pressure. In that setting, higher rates could be viewed as necessary even if they eventually restrain demand.
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What economists said about artificial intelligence
All surveyed economists expected AI to support GDP growth initially. At the same time, 83% expected early AI adoption to add to inflation. Those views are not contradictory. Investment in computing, software and related infrastructure can lift production and productivity, while elevated demand for equipment, labor and power can raise prices before longer-term efficiency gains appear.
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The survey does not establish how large either effect will be or how long it will last. It records respondents’ initial expectations.
A separate NABE panel offers a second forecast
The National Association for Business Economics (NABE) reported a different panel’s outlook for 2.1% GDP growth in 2026, 0.1 percentage point above its June forecast. Nearly half of those panelists did not expect the next downturn to begin before 2029.
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Risk perceptions changed as well. Eighteen percent identified a monetary-policy mistake as the leading downside risk—more than triple the earlier share—while fewer named broadening geopolitical conflicts as the top risk. NABE’s panel is a separate group from the Wolters Kluwer respondents, so its figures should not be combined with or treated as a replication of the corporate-economist survey.
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In an Oct. 12 speech, Cleveland Fed President and CEO Beth M. Hammack described inflation as above target and said tighter policy was appropriate under the conditions she saw. She stated: “A restrictive monetary policy stance is appropriate to ensure a timely return to 2 percent inflation.”
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Hammack also stressed the limits of her remarks: “Explaining my reaction function is not a prediction for policy.” Her views are her own and do not necessarily represent the Federal Reserve System or her FOMC colleagues. The full speech is available from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
Are borrowing costs actually too low?
The survey cannot answer that question as an objective economic measurement. It shows that a majority of respondents judged the recent increase insufficient given the inflation and growth data they expected. Whether rates are restrictive enough depends on incoming inflation, employment, demand and financial-condition data, as well as how quickly past increases pass through to households and companies.
For readers, the practical distinction is between expectations and outcomes. The 59% finding, the 84% rate expectation, the GDP and spending figures, and the AI assessments all describe what surveyed economists anticipated in 2026. They should not be cited as proof of what inflation, GDP or Federal Reserve policy ultimately did.
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