The 2024 U.S. franchise outlook projected the strongest establishment growth in personal services, followed by quick-service restaurants (QSRs). That is a sector forecast—not a ranking of franchise brands or evidence that an individual franchisee will earn a profit. If you are assessing an opportunity now, use those projections only as historical context and evaluate the specific brand, location, costs, and contract using its current Franchise Disclosure Document (FDD).
What the 2024 outlook projected
The International Franchise Association (IFA), working with FRANdata, published these figures as forecasts for U.S. franchising in 2024. They describe expected activity, not confirmed results:
| Measure | 2024 IFA forecast |
|---|---|
| Franchise establishments | More than 15,000 additional establishments, a 1.9% increase, bringing the total to 821,000. |
| Franchise employment | Approximately 221,000 jobs added; employment forecast to grow 3.0% to 8.9 million. |
| Franchised-business output | A 4.1% increase to $893.9 billion, from $858.5 billion in 2023. |
| Franchise GDP | A 4.3% increase to $545.8 billion. |
| Personal services | Projected to lead establishment growth at 3%, reaching 124,508 units. |
| Quick-service restaurants | Establishments projected to grow 2.2% to more than 199,000. |
| Regions and states | The Southeast and Southwest were forecast to outpace other U.S. regions. The ten states named among the top for franchise growth were Texas, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Maryland, Arizona, Colorado, and Virginia. |
These estimates do not establish which brands performed best, whether the forecasts were ultimately met, or whether a particular location can support a profitable business. An expanding sector can still contain businesses with weak unit economics, high costs, or poor local demand.
Why there is no universal “best” franchise
A franchise that fits one buyer may be unsuitable for another. The right choice depends on available capital, location, experience, risk tolerance, and the kind of work and operating schedule you want. Sector growth can help you decide where to investigate, but it cannot answer whether a specific offer is financially viable for you.
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For an individual opportunity, compare the investment and recurring fees with your resources; examine any financial performance representation and its limitations; check system openings, closures, transfers, and owner turnover; assess the territory and local demand; understand contract obligations and promised support; and speak with current and former franchisees.
How to evaluate a specific franchise opportunity
1. Start with the current FDD
The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) says the Franchise Rule requires a franchisor to provide a disclosure document containing 23 specific information items about the franchise, its officers, and other franchisees. Treat the FDD as the starting point for investigating the offer, rather than relying on a sales presentation or a sector forecast. Confirm that the document relates to the opportunity being offered to you and review it with the time and care needed to understand its terms.
2. Test any Item 19 financial claim
The FTC does not require franchisors to make sales or earnings claims. If a franchisor makes one, the claim generally must have a reasonable basis and appear in Item 19, subject to exceptions described in the FTC guide. Review what data the claim uses, who or what it represents, the limitations and assumptions, and whether those circumstances match your proposed territory and operating plan. Do not treat a system-wide figure as a prediction of your own results.
Ask for written substantiation of an earnings claim. The FTC says the franchisor must provide it if requested. An independent accountant can help examine the claim, assumptions, the franchisor’s financial statements, and whether the proposed business plan fits your resources and goals.
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3. Read Item 20 for movement in the system
Item 20 includes charts showing system growth and owner turnover. The FTC summarizes its purpose this way: “Item 20 provides charts showing growth and owner turnover in the franchisor’s system.” Read the underlying counts and context: a rising unit total or a large network alone does not demonstrate franchise quality.
Use the FDD’s franchisee contact information to speak with current and former owners. Ask about opening timelines, actual costs, the support they received, sales variability, and why owners left. Their accounts can help you understand what the charts mean in practice, though no single owner’s experience guarantees yours will be the same.
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4. Check the territory, obligations, and support
Assess whether local demand and the territory offered can support the planned business. Read the agreement for the obligations that shape day-to-day operations and long-term costs, and clarify what support the franchisor commits to provide. The FDD and contract—not general claims about sector growth—are the relevant materials for understanding the particular offer.
5. Get independent professional review
The FTC recommends discussing the deal with an experienced attorney and accountant. An attorney can help you understand the contract and obligations; an accountant can review financial statements, business assumptions, and any earnings claims. Their review should focus on your proposed opportunity and circumstances, not just the franchisor’s broad growth narrative.
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How to use the 2024 figures if you are deciding today
The 2024 outlook is historical context, not a current forecast for 2026. Its sector projections can suggest areas to investigate, especially personal services and QSRs, but they cannot establish present-day demand, current investment costs, or a brand’s performance. For a named franchise, obtain its current FDD and evaluate the proposed location, finances, operating requirements, and owner experience before deciding.
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