Not according to the latest outlook. NAND—the memory chip inside a USB flash drive—was expected to become more expensive in 2026, not cheaper. But that does not prove USB-drive shelf prices are rising: chip contracts and retail prices are different markets, and current comparable retail data for USB drives is not available in the cited sources.
What is happening to USB flash drive prices?
The evidence points to a change in direction for NAND costs, not a confirmed change in what shoppers pay for USB drives. TrendForce’s September 30, 2026 outlook said NAND wafer prices had reached historical highs and that downstream channels were increasingly unable to absorb them. It expected cautious buying by module makers to limit further overall price growth to a modest increase, rather than forecasting a drop.
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That is an upstream market assessment. It does not measure current retail prices for USB drives or establish whether a particular model has become more or less expensive.
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2025: weak demand and excess supply
In a January 17, 2025 preview, TrendForce expected NAND prices to keep falling amid weak demand and excess supply. It also described supplier production cuts intended to stabilize the market. That earlier downturn is the basis for the idea that USB flash drive prices might keep falling.
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2026: tighter supply and stronger demand elsewhere
By February 2, 2026, TrendForce forecast NAND Flash contract prices would rise 55–60% quarter over quarter in 1Q26, linking the outlook to AI and data-center demand alongside constrained supply. On July 3, it forecast a further 10–15% quarter-over-quarter increase in 3Q26 contract prices. Both figures are forecasts for NAND contracts, not observed changes in USB-drive retail prices.
Why higher NAND costs do not automatically mean higher USB-drive prices
A USB drive’s retail price depends on more than the memory chip. The cost can also reflect the product’s capacity, connector and interface, design, distribution, seller pricing, and inventory. Suppliers may absorb some cost changes, while retailers may sell older inventory or discount particular models.
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TrendForce said in July 2026 that NAND demand from retail storage products—including USB flash drives and memory cards—remained sluggish, and that high upstream costs could not be fully passed on to end markets. In other words, rising chip costs can coexist with weak consumer demand and resistance to price increases.
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| Period and source | Reported outlook | What it measures |
|---|---|---|
| January 17, 2025, TrendForce | NAND prices expected to continue falling | Industry outlook tied to weak demand and excess supply; not USB-drive retail prices |
| February 2, 2026, TrendForce | NAND Flash contract prices forecast up 55–60% quarter over quarter in 1Q26 | Contract-price forecast, linked to AI and data-center demand and constrained supply |
| July 3, 2026, TrendForce | NAND Flash contract prices forecast up 10–15% quarter over quarter in 3Q26 | Contract-price forecast; the update also said demand from retail storage, including USB drives, remained sluggish |
| September 30, 2026, TrendForce | Further overall NAND price growth expected to be modest | Outlook amid historically high wafer prices and cautious downstream buying; not a forecast of lower USB-drive shelf prices |
TrendForce’s public pricing page includes a Memory Card/UFD category, but that is NAND contract pricing, not a comparable retail series for USB drives by capacity or model. The September 30 details are reserved for Gold+ members. Its visible spot data, dated September 21, includes microSD entries rather than retail USB-drive prices.
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How to decide whether to buy now
Because the available figures do not reveal retail USB-drive price trends, they cannot determine whether waiting will save you money. If you need a drive, compare the live price of the specific capacity and connector you want across reputable sellers; check that the listing is for the same model and interface before comparing. A forecast about NAND contracts is not a substitute for checking current offers.
If the purchase is optional, monitoring the exact models you would consider is more useful than assuming a general market drop is imminent. The evidence supports neither a current retail-price decline nor a reliable prediction that USB drives will become cheaper soon.
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Sources
- TrendForce, January 17, 2025: NAND Flash market outlook
- TrendForce, February 2, 2026: NAND Flash contract-price outlook
- TrendForce, July 3, 2026: NAND Flash contract-price outlook and retail storage demand
- TrendForce NAND Flash pricing page
- TrendForce, September 30, 2026: NAND wafer market outlook
Product prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on Amazon at the time of purchase will apply.
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