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Are U.S. Cotton Mills Really Closing Rapidly? What the Data Shows

USDA estimates show a long-run decline in U.S. cotton processing, but they do not prove that cotton mills are closing rapidly. The available establishment count covers textile mills broadly, not cotton mills alone.
From TheFinanceBase Team2 min to read
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U.S. cotton processing has fallen sharply over the long term, but the available figures do not establish that cotton mills are now closing rapidly. USDA’s latest estimate cited here measures cotton processed—not the number of mills—and the latest establishment count covers all textile mills, not cotton mills alone.

What “cotton mill use” measures—and what it doesn’t

USDA defines U.S. cotton mill use as the volume of raw cotton processed into textiles. It is a measure of industrial activity, not a tally of operating factories or closures. A decline can reflect less cotton being processed at existing mills, as well as changes in the number or scale of facilities; by itself, it cannot distinguish among those possibilities.

In a January 18, 2024 estimate, USDA’s Economic Research Service put U.S. cotton mill use at 1.9 million bales for the 2023/24 marketing year, which runs from August through July. USDA said that, if realized, it would be the lowest level since 1884/85, when use was about 1.7 million bales. This is a historical low in processing volume, not evidence of a current mill-closure rate. USDA’s explanation of the estimate and long-run trend provides the underlying context.

What the latest mill-count data can tell us

The available establishment figures are for NAICS 313, the broader textile-mill industry. They are not cotton-specific, so they cannot show how many U.S. cotton mills remain open or how quickly cotton mills are closing.

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BLS reported 2,610 private-industry textile-mill establishments in 2026 Q1, marked preliminary, compared with 2,629 in 2025 Q2. That short comparison is not a long-run closure trend and does not identify the cause of any change. BLS’s Textile Mills series identifies the industry category and establishment data.

The broader textile-mill sector still has substantial economic activity

The Census Bureau reported $23,949,792,000 in sales or revenue and $3,886,521,000 in annual payroll for NAICS 313 textile mills in 2024. These figures, released September 3, 2026, describe the broader textile-mill category; they are not cotton-only totals and do not indicate how many facilities are operating. Census Bureau manufacturing summary statistics for NAICS 313 provides the figures.

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Why U.S. cotton processing declined over time

USDA’s historical account describes several stages, rather than a single cause. After World War II, synthetic fibers displaced cotton in textiles. Later, industry promotion and trade arrangements—including the Caribbean Basin Initiative and NAFTA—helped domestic yarn and fabric production recover. After textile and apparel import quotas began phasing out under the WTO Agreement on Textiles and Clothing, cotton mill use expanded in countries including China while U.S. use weakened. This explains broad changes in processing patterns; it is not a facility-by-facility explanation for particular closures.

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How to assess a claim that mills are closing rapidly

To establish a closure wave, a report would need dated, named evidence about individual facilities or a consistent cotton-specific mill count over time. Processing volume, establishment counts for all textile mills, and the financial scale of the wider textile sector answer different questions.

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  • For cotton processing: USDA ERS publishes cotton, textile-fiber, and textile-trade data. Its Cotton and Wool Yearbook includes supply, use, trade, and price datasets.
  • For operating activity: USDA NASS’s Cotton System Consumption and Stocks Annual Summary includes annual fiber consumption and spindle activity, including hours operated.
  • For establishment trends: BLS’s NAICS 313 figures track textile mills as a whole, not cotton mills specifically.
  • For a particular closure: look for a dated announcement or record naming the facility; broad industry totals cannot establish that a specific mill closed.

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