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Yes—recent results show operating momentum at both eBay and Etsy, and eBay issued positive near-term guidance. But that does not prove tariffs have had no effect: both companies continue to identify trade-policy changes and weaker consumer demand as risks, and their latest disclosures do not isolate the realized tariff impact.
What the headline means now
The headline began as a snapshot of management commentary on first-quarter 2025 results. In a May 3, 2025 report, TechCrunch said eBay estimated that about 5% of its GMV came from Greater China-to-U.S. transactions and slightly less than 10% came from China overall. Etsy said just over 1% of its GMS came from U.S. imports of items bought from sellers in China. Etsy’s CEO also said 90% of sellers sourced supplies domestically. These are historical estimates with different denominators—not current exposure measurements or directly comparable shares. The original framing is in TechCrunch’s May 2025 report.
The distinction matters: a marketplace can keep growing while trade changes raise costs for some sellers, complicate cross-border transactions, or weigh on buyers’ discretionary spending. Recent growth is evidence of business momentum, not proof that tariffs caused no harm.
What the latest results say
| Company | Latest reported marketplace measure | Near-term outlook |
|---|---|---|
| eBay | Q2 2026 revenue was $3.134 billion, up 15% year over year as reported and 14% FX-neutral. GMV was $22.4 billion, up 15% as reported and 14% FX-neutral. eBay Q2 2026 results, August 5, 2026. | For Q3 2026, eBay forecast revenue of $3.07–$3.12 billion, with 8–10% FX-neutral year-over-year growth, and GMV of $22.0–$22.4 billion, with 10–12% FX-neutral growth. These are forecasts, not results; the outlook includes the expected impact of Depop. |
| Etsy | Etsy-marketplace GMS was $2.6 billion in Q2 2026, up 7.5% year over year; marketplace revenue was $668 million, up 9.3%. Etsy Q2 2026 shareholder letter, August 5, 2026. | The cited Q2 2026 letter reports the quarter’s results. Etsy’s April 2026 letter had projected low-single-digit full-year Etsy-marketplace GMS growth after stronger-than-expected Q1 GMS, but that is earlier outlook context, not a newer forecast. Etsy Q1 2026 shareholder letter, April 2026. |
These metrics are not interchangeable: eBay reports GMV, while Etsy reports GMS. Etsy also cautioned that its continuing-operations comparison is not directly comparable because Q2 2025 included Reverb while Q2 2026 reflects Etsy alone. Etsy sold Depop to eBay on July 30, 2026.
Why the growth does not settle the tariff question
Tariffs can affect more than goods shipped directly from China
Cross-border duties, customs rules, and compliance costs can influence whether sellers list internationally and whether buyers complete purchases. eBay’s 2025 annual report says duties may depend on where an item was manufactured rather than where it is sold. It also describes possible cost, complexity, compliance, and cross-border-volume effects from trade-policy changes, including the elimination of the U.S. $800 de minimis exemption. These are disclosed risks, not a measurement of losses already incurred. eBay 2025 annual report.
Indirect effects can reach buyers and sellers
Tariffs or uncertainty about them may raise supply costs or reduce consumers’ willingness to spend. Etsy’s 2025 Form 10-K lists tariffs, possible changes to de minimis exemptions, macroeconomic volatility, and pressure on discretionary spending as risks. It reports that U.S. buyers accounted for 75% of consolidated buyer GMS and 74% of Etsy-marketplace buyer GMS in 2025. Those figures describe buyers’ geography—not where inventory was made, seller sourcing, or the share of sales directly exposed to tariffs. Etsy 2025 Form 10-K.
Company-wide results do not identify the tariff contribution
Both companies’ results reflect many factors, and the cited disclosures do not quantify how much tariffs added to or subtracted from recent performance. A growing marketplace may still have sellers or cross-border categories under pressure; the available figures do not show the size of that effect.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How to read management confidence
Confidence is best understood as a view of operating conditions and expectations, not a guarantee about policy outcomes. eBay’s Q2 growth and Q3 forecast support the conclusion that management saw near-term momentum. Etsy’s Q2 marketplace growth shows improvement in its reported marketplace measure, while its April outlook provides earlier evidence of a more positive trajectory. Neither establishes that trade risks have passed.
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For eBay, the key distinction is between broad marketplace growth and cross-border exposure. For Etsy, it is between marketplace growth, seller-input sourcing, and the geography of buyers. Each describes a different part of the business; none alone measures tariff sensitivity.
Quick Recap
What investors and sellers should watch
- Reported performance versus forecasts: compare actual quarterly results with guidance rather than treating forecasts as achieved outcomes.
- Marketplace metrics and scope: track GMV and GMS on their own terms, and account for portfolio changes when comparing periods.
- Trade-policy disclosures: watch for changes in tariffs, customs requirements, and de minimis rules, along with any quantified effect on cross-border activity.
- Demand and seller conditions: look for direct disclosure about buyer spending, seller costs, and international transactions; broad growth rates do not resolve those questions.
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