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What the two nearly $100 billion figures measure
The figures have different sources, periods and meanings. Neither is a measurement of an annual cartel migration from cash to crypto.
| Source and date | Figure and period | What it measures | What it does not establish |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Treasury, 2023 | Nearly $100 billion a year, by some estimates | Drug-trafficking proceeds that flow through the U.S. financial system, according to remarks by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. | It is not a crypto-volume estimate, nor does it say that all the proceeds belong to cartels. |
| Chainalysis, July 2024 | Nearly $100 billion since 2019 | Estimated value sent from known illicit wallets to crypto conversion services during that period. | It is cumulative, not annual or cartel-specific. It excludes transfers among intermediaries and crypto laundering when the source crime is unidentified or off-chain. |
Chainalysis says 2022 was the largest year in its account, with $30 billion identified, largely from transactions involving sanctioned services such as Garantex. That figure remains part of the company’s analysis of known illicit-wallet flows; it is not a measure of cartel proceeds.
What official sources say about drug-related crypto use
Crypto appears in online procurement and cross-border activity
Canada’s 2025 National Risk Assessment says the use of crypto to procure drugs and precursor chemicals through dark-web and surface-web sources has become more common. The UK National Crime Agency’s 2023 remarks describe cross-border criminal networks in which drug-sale cash and crypto-related proceeds and payments to South American cartels can be connected. These accounts support crypto’s role in some drug-related activity, but do not quantify a $100 billion cartel shift.
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Cash and established laundering methods remain in the picture
Canada’s assessment says cash remains prevalent in laundering drug proceeds. The UK National Crime Agency’s Director General, Graeme Biggar, also described continuing use of cash-rich businesses, money mules, informal banking systems such as hawala and Chinese underground banking, and physical cash smuggling. The official accounts describe a mix of methods, not a clean replacement of cash by crypto.
Why criminal networks may use crypto—and why tracing it can be difficult
Chainalysis identifies cross-border reach, near-instant transfers and generally low transaction costs as features illicit actors may exploit. Those features can help move value, but they do not make every transfer anonymous or prove that a transaction is criminal.
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Public blockchains create visible transaction trails that investigators can analyze. The harder question is attribution: identifying who controls an address, what a transfer represents and whether it is tied to a crime can require information beyond the blockchain. Chainalysis notes that a payment between two known exchanges, for example, can resemble an ordinary service-to-service transfer without specific investigative leads. Its account describes combining on-chain analysis with off-chain intelligence.
How crypto fits among other laundering methods
Canada’s 2025 assessment lists several approaches used to conceal or move criminal proceeds. It also says third-party money launderers are used by virtually every large-scale transnational organized crime group. The methods differ in the records they leave and the role intermediaries play; none should be treated as a complete explanation on its own.
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| Method | How it fits the Canadian assessment | Records or visibility noted by the cited sources |
|---|---|---|
| Crypto and online financial platforms | Used in some online drug and precursor procurement; conversion services may sit between illicit wallets and other assets. | Public-chain trails can be analyzed, but identifying people and criminal purpose may require off-chain intelligence, according to Chainalysis. |
| Cash and bulk cash smuggling | Cash remains prevalent in drug-proceeds laundering; the UK NCA describes cash smuggling as a continuing method. | The cited sources do not quantify cash flows or provide a direct comparison of traceability with crypto. |
| Legitimate businesses and shell companies | Illicit proceeds may be blended with legitimate business revenue or moved through shell companies. | The Canadian assessment lists these methods but does not quantify their share of laundering. |
| Trade and real estate | Trade-based laundering and real estate investment are among the methods in Canada’s assessment. | The cited material does not provide comparable dollar totals for these methods. |
| Third-party laundering and informal systems | Canada says large-scale transnational organized crime groups virtually all use third-party money launderers; the UK NCA describes hawala and Chinese underground banking. | The sources describe these channels qualitatively, without a comparable volume estimate. |
What enforcement figures can—and cannot—tell readers
Canada’s 2025 assessment says FINTRAC disclosed 93 suspicious transaction reports concerning 354 subjects to law enforcement in 2023–24 in connection with tracing funds linked to illegal fentanyl trafficking. This is an enforcement-intelligence activity count. It is not a count of crypto transactions, a measure of money seized or an estimate of cartel crypto flows.
The UK NCA’s 2023 remarks likewise describe how old and new laundering methods can operate across borders, but offer no dollar estimate for a cartel shift into crypto. Taken together, the cited official material documents a changing mix of methods; it does not validate the headline’s $100 billion annual claim.
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