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Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsFree Scan →Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsFix Now →Four broad investment categories associated with AI accounted for an estimated 39% of U.S. real GDP growth in the first three quarters of 2025, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. That is a substantial contribution, but it is not a measure of AI alone: the categories include spending not exclusively related to AI, and the estimate does not prove AI caused the spending or has already raised economy-wide productivity.
What does the 39% estimate measure?
The St. Louis Fed estimated that four investment categories added 0.97 percentage points to real GDP growth over the first three quarters of 2025. That contribution equaled 39% of measured growth in that period. The categories were:
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- Information-processing equipment
- Software
- Research and development (R&D)
- Data-center construction
These are proxies for AI-related investment, not an official tally of AI spending. For example, the R&D category includes research unrelated to AI. The calculation for data-center construction also uses an imputed value for September 2025. Because the estimate depends on broad categories and available data, it should be read as an estimate of the AI buildout’s investment footprint—not as a precise accounting of dollars spent solely on AI.
There is no unique AI industry in official U.S. statistics, and the national accounts have no line item that isolates AI’s economic impact. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) explains that AI production and services are spread across industries. Its June 2026 explainer notes: “There is currently no unique industry classified as ‘AI’ in official statistics because production of AI and AI services is spread across sectors.”
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Did AI-related investment contribute the same amount each quarter?
No. The St. Louis Fed’s estimated contribution declined over the course of 2025. Its figures for the four categories were:
| Period | Contribution to real GDP growth | Share of GDP growth |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q1 | 1.30 percentage points | Not stated in the cited estimate |
| 2025 Q2 | 1.16 percentage points | 30% |
| 2025 Q3 | 0.48 percentage points | 11% |
The quarter-by-quarter numbers show why 39% should not be treated as a stable or continuing share of growth. An investment category can remain large while adding less to GDP growth if the rate at which investment is increasing slows. These estimates describe each quarter’s contribution to growth, not the total amount of investment already in place.
How does corporate spending fit in?
Separate from the GDP-growth calculation, Federal Reserve Board data put combined 2025 capital expenditures at Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle at $412 billion—about 1.31% of U.S. GDP. That capex series excludes leases. It illustrates the scale of spending by five large companies, but it is not the same measure as the St. Louis Fed’s estimated contribution to GDP growth: one is a corporate spending total, while the other estimates how selected investment categories affected the rate of economic growth.
A broader measure from the Council of Economic Advisers found that U.S. investment in information-processing equipment and software grew at a 28% annual rate in the first half of 2025, compared with 5.5% in 2024. That measure captures more than AI-related spending, so it provides context for the investment surge rather than an AI-only growth figure.
Does this mean AI has already raised productivity?
No. Investment spending contributes to GDP through the accounting of goods and services produced, but that does not establish whether the investment will earn a return or make workers and businesses more productive. Those are separate questions that require evidence about what happens after AI tools are adopted and used.
BEA’s October 2026 research spotlight found stronger post-2020 real-output trajectories in state-and-industry groups where workers reported more AI use. Employment differences in those groups were generally positive, but less precisely estimated. This pattern is consistent with output expanding alongside stable or stronger employment, rather than a simple story of AI use causing widespread job displacement. It does not establish that AI caused the stronger output: reverse causality, small samples, and differences in which places and industries adopt AI make the effect difficult to isolate.
A separate BEA working paper from February 2026 reported results consistent with productivity enhancement and input savings in its baseline model. An alternative specification, using a different timing for when AI became pervasive, produced less robust results. The paper is an early estimate, not settled proof of an economy-wide productivity effect. BEA’s summary puts the measurement problem plainly: “Currently, there is not a line item in the U.S. national accounts that can be used to identify and measure the economic impact of artificial intelligence (AI).”
What do adoption surveys tell us?
Adoption figures help show whether businesses and workers are beginning to use AI, but they do not measure the resulting productivity or GDP impact. Federal Reserve Board accessible data from the revised Census Business Trends and Outlook Survey put business AI use at about 18% and planned adoption at about 21% at the end of 2025. Census changed its question in November 2025: it began asking about AI in any business function rather than only AI used to produce goods or services. Readings on either side of that change are therefore not perfectly comparable.
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A different measure in BEA’s October 2026 spotlight draws on Gallup worker surveys. It reports that the share of workers saying they used AI for any purpose rose from roughly 20% in mid-2023 to nearly 50% by early 2026; frequent use rose from roughly 10% to more than 25%. These are worker-reported measures, not the same series as the Census business survey. Survey definitions, respondents, and questions differ, so the numbers should not be combined into one adoption trend.
What should readers conclude about the economy?
The strongest supported conclusion is that investment categories closely associated with AI made a large, but uneven, contribution to measured U.S. growth in the first three quarters of 2025. The 39% figure is informative about the scale of the buildout, not proof that AI alone generated that share of growth. Corporate capex totals, business adoption surveys, and emerging productivity analyses describe different parts of the story; none can be substituted for another.
BEA’s industry-level production accounts also found that growth in information-industry capital was among the top contributors to real GDP growth from 2021 to 2024. BEA says that pattern is consistent with investment in AI and AI-related services contributing significantly, while emphasizing that the information industry is only one of the primary industries associated with AI. Taken together, the evidence points to meaningful AI-related investment and early signs of broader use, while the size of AI’s causal effect on productivity and output remains uncertain.
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