SEMI forecast in December 2025 that global semiconductor manufacturing equipment sales by original equipment makers (OEMs) would reach $156 billion in 2027, a record at the time of that forecast. SEMI attributed the expected growth chiefly to AI-related investment in advanced logic, memory and packaging. That figure is a forecast—not a confirmed result—and it is no longer SEMI’s latest outlook: a July 2026 release revised the market picture but did not give a new total-equipment sales figure for 2027.
What the $156 billion forecast measures
The $156 billion figure covers global semiconductor manufacturing equipment sales by OEMs across equipment segments. It is not a measure of chip sales, company revenue, or all spending on semiconductor factories. SEMI’s December 16, 2025 forecast projected total sales of $133 billion in 2025, $145 billion in 2026 and $156 billion in 2027. These were estimates published in 2025, not realized sales.
“CapEx” is often used broadly for capital investment, but the headline number here is SEMI’s forecast of equipment sales by OEMs. It should not be treated as a complete tally of semiconductor companies’ capital expenditures, which can include other costs.
WFE is only one part of the total
Wafer fab equipment (WFE) is the largest equipment category, but it is not synonymous with total equipment sales. SEMI’s definition includes wafer-processing equipment, mask and reticle equipment, and fab-facilities equipment. The overall equipment market also includes back-end test and assembly/packaging equipment.
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In its December 2025 forecast, SEMI put WFE sales at $115.7 billion in 2025, up 11.0% from 2024, and forecast $135.2 billion for WFE in 2027. It said the 2025 WFE estimate had been revised upward from its earlier $110.8 billion mid-year forecast, reflecting stronger-than-expected DRAM and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) investment.
Do not mix it up with 300mm fab spending
A separate SEMI forecast series covers equipment spending for 300mm fabs. In an April 1, 2026 release, SEMI projected $133 billion in 2026 and $151 billion in 2027 for worldwide 300mm fab equipment spending. Those figures describe a different scope and are not substitutes for the December 2025 estimate of total global OEM equipment sales. See SEMI’s 300mm fab outlook for that series.
Why AI is driving investment in chipmaking equipment
AI systems require powerful processors and large quantities of fast memory. SEMI linked its December 2025 forecast revision to stronger-than-expected spending on DRAM and HBM, as well as continued investment in leading-edge logic and advanced packaging. The connection runs through several parts of chip production: building capacity for AI accelerators and high-performance computing, producing more advanced memory, and assembling complex chips and chiplets into packages that meet demanding performance requirements.
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Logic and foundry capacity
SEMI said foundry and logic WFE spending would support capacity for AI accelerators, high-performance computing and premium mobile processors. It forecast that this segment, which reached $66.6 billion in 2025, would grow 5.5% in 2026 and 6.9% in 2027 to $75.2 billion. SEMI also pointed to the industry’s move toward high-volume manufacturing at the 2nm gate-all-around node.
Memory, including HBM
HBM is a type of DRAM used alongside high-performance processors in many AI systems. In the December 2025 forecast, SEMI projected DRAM equipment sales of $22.5 billion in 2025, followed by growth of 15.1% in 2026 and 7.8% in 2027. It forecast NAND equipment sales of $14.0 billion in 2025, $15.7 billion in 2026 and $16.9 billion in 2027. SEMI associated DRAM investment with HBM production ramps and advanced process-node upgrades, and NAND investment with 3D stacking and capacity expansion.
Test and advanced packaging
More complex chip designs also increase demands on testing and packaging. SEMI projected $11.2 billion in semiconductor test equipment sales in 2025, with growth of 12.0% in 2026 and 7.1% in 2027. For assembly and packaging equipment, it forecast $6.0 billion in 2025, followed by growth of 9.2% in 2026 and 6.9% in 2027. The figures and growth rates are from SEMI’s December 2025 forecast.
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SEMI said advanced and heterogeneous packaging—the integration of different components or chiplets in a package—was gaining importance as device architectures grew more complex. It also cautioned that weakness in consumer, automotive and industrial demand was weighing on some mainstream test and packaging segments. AI-related investment therefore does not mean every equipment category or end market is growing at the same pace.
How the outlook changed in 2026
SEMI’s July 14, 2026 mid-year forecast changed the near-term outlook substantially. It projected total equipment sales of $165.9 billion in 2026, up 23.2% year over year, and $229.5 billion in 2028. It forecast WFE growth of 21.8% in 2027, but did not state a new dollar figure for total equipment sales in 2027.
That means the December 2025 $156 billion figure remains a valid description of what SEMI forecast for 2027 in that release, but should not be presented as SEMI’s current 2027 total-market estimate. Nor can the July 2026 WFE growth rate be used to calculate a new total-equipment figure: it applies to a different segment, and the release does not provide the missing total.
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| SEMI forecast vintage | Measure | Forecast value |
|---|---|---|
| December 2025 | Total global OEM equipment sales, 2027 | $156 billion |
| July 2026 | Total global equipment sales, 2026 | $165.9 billion, up 23.2% year over year |
| July 2026 | Total global equipment sales, 2027 | No dollar figure stated in the release |
| July 2026 | WFE, 2027 | 21.8% growth forecast |
| July 2026 | Total global equipment sales, 2028 | $229.5 billion |
Segment forecasts also shifted between releases. In July 2026, SEMI forecast 2026 foundry and logic WFE at $78.0 billion, with 18.1% growth in 2027; DRAM equipment at $38.8 billion in 2026, with 27.4% growth in 2027; and NAND equipment at $13.9 billion in 2026, with 31.1% growth in 2027. These numbers belong to the July 2026 forecast vintage and should not be spliced into the December 2025 series as though they were a single uninterrupted forecast.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Where SEMI expected equipment spending
In December 2025, SEMI expected China, Taiwan and Korea to remain the three largest equipment-spending destinations through 2027. It linked China’s position to investment in mature and selected advanced nodes, Taiwan’s spending to leading-edge AI and high-performance-computing capacity, and Korea’s to advanced memory, including HBM. SEMI expected other tracked regions to grow in 2026 and 2027, citing government incentives, regionalization and specialty-capacity expansion.
The July 2026 outlook retained China, Taiwan and Korea as the largest destinations through 2028. It continued to associate Taiwan with leading-edge AI/HPC capacity and Korea with memory investment such as HBM, while expecting China’s growth to moderate after elevated investment in recent years.
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What SEMI says—and what a forecast can establish
Ajit Manocha, SEMI president and CEO, said in the December 16, 2025 release: “Investments to support AI demand have been stronger than anticipated since our midyear forecast, leading us to boost the outlook for all segments.” In the July 14, 2026 release, he said: “AI is accelerating demand for more powerful and efficient chips, driving increased investment across the semiconductor capital equipment market.” These statements describe SEMI’s view of the forces behind its projections; they do not establish that forecast sales will occur.
SEMI’s releases provide a detailed industry forecast, not evidence that every equipment maker, chip producer or investor will benefit equally. Equipment demand is tied to planned capacity and technology transitions, while the forecast can change as investment plans and market conditions change.
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