The S&P 500 is approaching four years since its October 12, 2022 closing low. Reuters reported on October 9, 2026, that the index had risen 117% from that low and was near record levels. The advance has been powered in part by AI-related investment and corporate earnings, but its age alone says little about what happens next: concentration in a small group of large companies, uncertain returns on AI spending, and higher interest rates are more useful risks to watch.
What does the four-year milestone mean?
October 12, 2026 marks four years since the S&P 500’s closing low for this cycle. The 117% cumulative rise from that low is Reuters’ measurement as of its October 9, 2026 report—not a live return or a final anniversary close.
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The label “bull market” depends on the definition. A common convention is a 20% advance after a 20% decline, Reuters noted, but market professionals do not apply one universal rule. The anniversary is therefore a useful point to assess the drivers and vulnerabilities of the advance, not a countdown suggesting that a bull market must end after a set number of years.
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What has driven the advance?
AI investment and expectations
Spending on data centers, chips, and related equipment has supported demand for companies supplying AI infrastructure. Reuters identified that investment, corporate profits, and a solid economic backdrop as important supports for the rally. Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr said in a September 29, 2026 speech that AI investment was boosting business fixed investment and demand for chips and related equipment.
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The market’s performance has also reflected expectations about what AI could eventually do for productivity and profits. Those expectations are not the same as realized returns: the technology’s economic payoff may take time, and the companies paying for infrastructure may not capture all the value.
Earnings and the economic backdrop
Reuters reported that S&P 500 earnings were expected to grow more than 35% in 2026, with hyperscalers’ data-center investment cited as a driver. That is a forecast, not a confirmed full-year result. Earnings growth can support share prices, but the forecast does not establish that current valuations are justified or that profits will keep expanding at that pace.
The Federal Reserve’s July 2026 Monetary Policy Report said the S&P 500 had gained about 9% since the start of 2026 and the information technology industry group about 16% over the report’s measurement period. It also described sizable market fluctuations in response to AI developments and geopolitical events. The same report recorded PCE inflation of 4.1% and core PCE inflation of 3.4% over the 12 months through May 2026; those are period-specific readings, not current inflation updates.
Gains have not been evenly shared across sectors
In Reuters’ account of the bull-market period, information technology and communication services were the only two of the 11 S&P 500 sectors to outperform the index. This narrow sector leadership helps explain why AI-related news can move the broader benchmark, but it also means the headline index does not describe the experience of every sector or stock.
How concentrated is the market?
Capitalization-weighted indexes give larger companies greater influence. Reuters reported a J.P. Morgan Asset Management estimate that the S&P 500’s ten largest constituents represented about 40% of the index, compared with about 28% in October 2022. The figures compare Reuters’ October 2026 snapshot with the earlier point; constituent weights can change.
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The European Central Bank assessed concentration differently, using an adjusted Herfindahl-Hirschman Index. In its June 2026 analysis, the ECB found broad S&P 500 concentration above the historical 95th percentile and information-technology-sector concentration above the 75th percentile. These percentiles come from the ECB’s measure and dataset; they are not another way of stating the top-ten weight.
Concentration does not mean a decline is imminent. It does mean that a reversal in a few very large AI-exposed companies could have an outsized effect on a capitalization-weighted index. Edward Jones strategist Angelo Kourkafas put the risk this way in Reuters’ October 9 report: “The risk of concentration is that if the prevailing theme goes out of favor, portfolios might feel it in an outsized way.”
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What could weaken or end the bull market?
AI spending fails to earn adequate returns
Companies can invest heavily in computing capacity without ultimately generating profits large enough to justify the expense. The market is therefore exposed not only to whether AI adoption continues, but also to how quickly it improves productivity, who captures the resulting value, and whether earnings meet investors’ expectations.
Reuters quoted Ameriprise chief market strategist Anthony Saglimbene saying, “The AI theme is the defining feature of this bull market.” He also argued that technology companies face growing pressure to show that current spending translates into profits. The Federal Reserve’s September 2026 discussion similarly emphasized that productivity gains depend partly on how businesses reorganize work around new technology.
Higher yields and monetary policy
Reuters reported that the 10-year Treasury yield was around 5.2% on October 9, 2026, after a recent 24-year high. That is a dated snapshot, not a current yield quote. Higher bond yields can make fixed-income assets more competitive with stocks and can weigh on equity valuations, particularly when share prices depend on profits expected far in the future. They are a headwind, not a mechanical trigger that ends a bull market.
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Inflation and interest-rate policy also matter to the outlook. The Federal Reserve’s July report provides a dated view of inflation and market performance through its stated reporting periods; it should not be mistaken for a real-time reading of either. Changes in inflation, growth, and policy expectations can affect both company earnings and the rates used to value those earnings.
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When a small number of companies account for a large share of an index’s value, weaker results or lower valuations among those leaders can pull down the benchmark even if other stocks hold up better. The ECB warned that underperformance among a few large AI-exposed firms could spread to the wider market, while also describing equity risk pricing as subdued in its June 2026 analysis.
Reuters quoted Nationwide chief market strategist Mark Hackett: “Four years is not, by any stretch of the imagination, scary with regards to a bull market,” and, “They don’t end of old age; they end from disease.” That is his formulation, not a rule or a consensus forecast. The relevant question is whether earnings, financing conditions, or expectations deteriorate—not simply how long the advance has lasted.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Is this AI boom just another dot-com bubble?
The comparison is useful but not conclusive. In a November 2025 speech, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson contrasted many current AI-linked firms, which generally have established and growing earnings streams, with many dot-com companies around the late-1990s boom that had little realized earnings and speculative revenue prospects. He also noted that current AI-related price gains had been rapid and that expectations and technology effects remain difficult to assess.
Existing earnings distinguish many major AI firms from companies with little operating track record, but they do not prove that their share prices are sustainable. Valuation still depends on whether future profits and growth justify what investors are paying today.
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Vanguard’s 2026 outlook described both sides of the investment case. Faster AI diffusion and capital spending could support economic growth and earnings; expensive investment, competition, and weak value capture could instead leave companies with disappointing returns. Its projections are forecasts from its research period, not realized results or individualized investment advice.
What would a market decline mean beyond investors’ portfolios?
A sharp stock-market decline can affect household spending through the equity wealth effect: people who feel less wealthy may cut consumption. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta researchers modeled hypothetical S&P 500 declines and estimated lower U.S. real consumption under each scenario. These are scenario inputs, not predictions that any particular decline will happen.
| Hypothetical S&P 500 decline | How to interpret it |
|---|---|
| 25% | A modeled scenario in the Atlanta Fed’s 2026 consumption analysis; not a forecast. |
| 35% | A modeled scenario in the same analysis; not a forecast. |
| 50% | A modeled scenario in the same analysis; not a forecast. |
The analysis concerns a possible channel from falling stock wealth to consumer spending; it does not establish when a market decline will occur or how large one will be.
How to read the anniversary without treating it as a forecast
The most useful way to assess this milestone is to separate what has happened from what investors expect next. The rally has coincided with rising earnings, substantial AI-related investment, and strong performance in a limited set of sectors. Its future direction depends on whether those earnings and investments continue to meet expectations, how concentrated index leadership remains, and how rates and the wider economy evolve.
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- Distinguish index performance from market breadth. A benchmark led by a handful of large companies can rise even when many sectors or stocks lag.
- Date market figures. Yields, constituent weights, earnings estimates, and index returns change; the Reuters and Federal Reserve figures above are tied to their stated reporting dates.
- Keep scenarios separate from forecasts. The Atlanta Fed’s drawdown cases describe modeled effects, not a prediction of a crash.
For an individual investor, the anniversary alone does not determine whether a portfolio is appropriate. Exposure to large companies, risk tolerance, time horizon, and the possibility of losses matter more than the age assigned to the market cycle.
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