AgRural and StoneX both lowered their estimates for Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean crop on March 2, 2026, citing weather-related yield losses in Rio Grande do Sul. AgRural projected 178 million metric tons, while StoneX estimated 177.8 million metric tons. These are forecasts—not final harvested totals—and the agencies issued separate estimates.
How much soy is Brazil expected to produce?
AgRural’s March 2, 2026 estimate was 178 million metric tons, down from 181 million. StoneX estimated 177.8 million metric tons, a 2.1% reduction from its previous forecast. StoneX said its revised figure still pointed to a record crop. The near-match does not mean the agencies used a shared estimate: each figure is its own forecast.
The estimates reflect conditions and assumptions available at the time. They should not be read as Brazil’s final 2025/26 production tally.
Why did the agencies cut their forecasts?
Rio Grande do Sul suffered weather-related yield damage
AgRural pointed to drought-related yield losses in Rio Grande do Sul. StoneX highlighted late and irregular rains there. StoneX market intelligence specialist Ana Luiza Lodi said, “Weather issues have caused some damage to crops, especially in Rio Grande do Sul, where rains arrived late and were quite irregular.”
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In its March 3, 2026 release, StoneX said it had reduced its estimated productivity for Rio Grande do Sul by 11.8%, with average yield expected below 3 tonnes per hectare. The release noted that the state’s soybean cycle runs later than those in other parts of Brazil, leaving scope for further forecast revisions as the crop developed.
Stronger yields elsewhere partly cushioned the losses
AgRural said higher yields in other states—especially Mato Grosso—partly offset the shortfall in Rio Grande do Sul. That offset helps explain why its national estimate remained at 178 million metric tons despite the regional damage.
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How far along was the harvest?
As of the Thursday before AgRural’s March 2 report, Brazilian farmers had harvested 39% of the soybean crop. That was a 9-percentage-point increase from the prior week, but below the 50% harvested at the comparable point a year earlier. AgRural described the pace as the slowest since the 2020/21 season.
Harvest progress matters because the estimates were being updated while substantial areas remained in the field. StoneX specifically noted that Rio Grande do Sul’s later cycle could lead to additional changes in its estimate in the following weeks.
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How does the USDA estimate compare?
The USDA Economic Research Service’s January 14, 2026 Oil Crops Outlook projected Brazil’s 2025/26 marketing-year production at 178 million metric tons. That earlier forecast was 3 million metric tons higher than the USDA’s prior estimate, based on higher harvested area and yield; it projected 49.1 million hectares harvested and a yield of 3.63 metric tons per hectare.
The USDA figure is a separate, earlier forecast vintage, not a final result or a like-for-like rebuttal of the March revisions. Forecasts from different organizations can reflect different update dates and assumptions; the available reports do not provide a harmonized methodology that would establish one estimate as more accurate.
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What to take from the March revisions
- Both agencies lowered their estimates, to 178 million metric tons from AgRural and 177.8 million from StoneX.
- Both linked the downgrade to weather-related yield damage in Rio Grande do Sul, though AgRural described drought losses and StoneX emphasized late, irregular rain.
- AgRural said better yields elsewhere, particularly in Mato Grosso, partly offset the state-level losses.
- The harvest was behind the prior year’s pace, and the later Rio Grande do Sul crop left room for more revisions.
For further market analysis, StoneX’s March 3 release is available at StoneX’s crop estimate update.
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