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About 52% of agricultural borrowers were expected to remain profitable in 2025, according to the annual survey by the American Bankers Association (ABA) and Farmer Mac. That is a lender forecast—not a final count showing how many U.S. farms ultimately made a profit.
What the 52% figure means
The figure measures agricultural lenders’ expectations for their borrowers’ profitability in 2025. The survey does not count final farm profits or establish that exactly 52% of U.S. farmers ended the year in the black. Its more than 450 respondents were agricultural loan officers, managers and executives, making the results a lender-perspective snapshot rather than a census of farm financial statements. Farmer Mac says the survey was distributed by email from July 14 to August 15, 2025, and drew responses from a range of institutions and geographies. Farmer Mac’s release describes the survey and its respondents.
How the outlook changed across years
The survey indicates a marked weakening in lenders’ expectations compared with the outlook they reported for earlier years. The figures below are all expectations or projections reported in the 2025 ABA/Farmer Mac survey, not measured final profit rates. Farmer Mac’s release links to the joint survey materials.
| Period | Borrowers expected to be profitable | How to read the figure |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | More than 80% | Lenders’ reported expectation for that year |
| 2024 | 57% | Lenders’ reported expectation for that year |
| 2025 | Approximately 52% | Lenders’ expectation in the 2025 survey |
| 2026 | Slightly less than half | Lenders’ projection for the following year |
Why lenders were concerned about farm profitability
Income and working capital
The survey identified farm income and working capital as leading concerns for producers, followed closely by inflationary pressures. When income is under pressure, farms may have less cash available for operating costs and debt payments, which can make liquidity an immediate concern even before a business reports a loss. The official release summarizes the concerns lenders cited.
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Debt and credit quality
Nearly 93% of lenders expected farm debt to increase over the next year, according to the survey. Lenders also reported rising loan demand and closer attention to credit quality. These indicators help explain the cautious outlook, but they do not show that every farm was borrowing more or had the same access to credit.
Caution coexisted with continued lending activity: lenders said they approved roughly 84% of loan applications over the prior year and expected to renew nearly 88% of existing loans in the year ahead. Those survey figures describe aggregate lender responses; they do not mean every applicant was approved or that credit was equally available to every borrower. Farmer Mac’s release reports these credit conditions.
The outlook differed by farm sector
Lenders were most concerned about grain and cotton operations. Their view was more favorable for livestock, particularly beef and poultry. The survey therefore does not support treating the expected profitability decline as uniform across all farm types; a farm’s sector and circumstances matter.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How to interpret the survey
The survey is useful as an indicator of what agricultural lenders were seeing in their borrowers and anticipating for the farm economy. It is not a nationwide accounting of realized farm income, and a profitability expectation does not reveal the size of any profit or loss. The survey’s results should be understood as a dated outlook: it was fielded in mid-2025 and reported lenders’ expectations for 2025 and their projection for 2026.
Farmer Mac chief economist Jackson Takach said, “Ag lenders provide a clear window into how economic forces ripple through the farm economy.” ABA research and economic policy manager Ryan Lee described lender sentiment as “a cautious outlook as financial pressures build on farm operations.” Both remarks appeared in Farmer Mac’s official release.
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