About $529 million in trading volume was reported across Polymarket contracts tied to the timing of U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran. That figure was not the profit of a handful of traders: Bubblemaps identified six accounts that reportedly made about $1.2 million combined by betting on a February 28, 2026 strike. The trading patterns drew scrutiny, but the available reporting does not establish that the accounts used inside information.
What was the $529 million bet on Iran?
Reuters reported about $529 million in aggregate trading volume across a range of Polymarket contracts tied to when U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran would occur. It is the total value traded across those timing markets—not a single wager, a payout, or the profit made by the six flagged accounts. Reuters’ March 29, 2026 factbox also reported that Bubblemaps identified six accounts with combined profits of about $1.2 million.
Bloomberg reported nearly $90 million in volume on the February 28 date contract, compared with $42 million on the next most-traded date, January 31. Those figures describe individual contracts within the broader set of timing markets; they are not additional estimates of the six accounts’ earnings. Bloomberg’s report said a February 27 contract drew more than $25 million.
How did the flagged accounts make money?
Bubblemaps, a blockchain analytics firm, attributed about $1.2 million in combined profit to six accounts that bet on a February 28 strike, according to Reuters and CoinDesk. That is an analytics-firm estimate reported by news outlets, not a regulator-verified accounting of profits. CoinDesk’s account of Bubblemaps’ analysis said most of the wallets had been funded within the preceding 24 hours and showed no other activity beyond the predictions.
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CoinDesk described one account buying more than 560,000 “Yes” shares at an average price of about 10.8 cents and receiving nearly $560,000 when the contract resolved at $1. A low entry price can produce a large payout if the predicted outcome occurs, although the actual result depends on the contract’s terms and the amount invested. Reuters describes prediction-market contracts as tradable yes-or-no positions whose prices can move between zero and 100 cents; successful positions typically pay $1 when the outcome is confirmed. Reuters’ explanation of prediction markets provides that general context.
Did traders know about the Iran bombing in advance?
The reporting raises questions about timing, but does not answer that question. Bloomberg reported that the accounts were newly created and concentrated on strike timing, and that some bought shares hours before explosions were reported in Tehran. It also noted that the prospect of U.S. action had been discussed publicly for weeks. A trader could act on public signals or speculation; the timing and blockchain activity alone do not establish access to confidential information.
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Nor does the reporting establish that a named account holder was charged with, or found to have violated the law over, these bets. The accounts’ behavior was described as suspicious or unusual by analytics firms and in news coverage—not as proven insider trading. Bubblemaps CEO Nicolas Vaiman told Bloomberg: “Prediction markets are some of the first products that allow direct bets on geopolitical events,” said Nicolas Vaiman, chief executive officer of Bubblemaps, in an email. “In cases involving war or conflict, information can circulate within a broader circle before becoming public. Combined with the fact that Polymarket generally only requires a wallet to trade, which allows for a high level of anonymity, this can create incentives for informed participants to act early.” That is an analytics-company executive’s assessment, not a legal finding. Bloomberg reported the comments and account patterns.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How were the strike bets different from the Khamenei contracts?
The strike-date bets and contracts concerning whether Ali Khamenei would leave office asked different questions and had different resolution issues. Reuters reported about $150 million in volume across two Khamenei-removal contracts, separate from the roughly $529 million in strike-timing volume. Those Khamenei contracts were disputed and in a debate period after token holders challenged their resolution; Bloomberg noted that the wording did not exclude death as a qualifying event. The cited reporting does not provide a final resolution outcome for those disputed contracts.
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| Market | What it asked | Reported activity and status |
|---|---|---|
| Iran strike timing | When U.S.-Israeli strikes would occur, including a February 28 date contract. | Reuters reported about $529 million in volume across timing contracts; the February 28 contract resolved after the strikes. |
| Khamenei removal | Whether Ali Khamenei would leave office; Bloomberg said the wording did not rule out death as a qualifying event. | Reuters reported about $150 million across two contracts. Token holders disputed resolution, and the contracts were in a debate period; the cited reports do not state a final outcome. |
Because the events and resolution questions differed, the Khamenei dispute should not be treated as part of the February 28 strike-date contract. Reuters’ factbox and Bloomberg’s report describe the separate markets.
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