Yes, eCommerce can be profitable in 2026, but market growth does not show whether an individual store is making money. Profit depends on what remains after a seller accounts for product costs, advertising, returns, and other operating expenses. The latest U.S. sales figures show a large, growing market—not a typical seller’s profit margin.
What the latest eCommerce figures say
The latest U.S. Census Bureau release surfaced here reports seasonally adjusted retail eCommerce sales of $340.2 billion in the second quarter of 2026, a 12.2% increase from the same quarter a year earlier. Online sales represented 17.1% of total U.S. retail sales. These figures measure sales across the market; they do not measure merchants’ costs, net income, or the share of stores that are profitable. U.S. Census Bureau, quarterly retail eCommerce sales.
The Census page said the Q2 estimate was no longer the most up to date as of September 28, 2026, and scheduled its Q3 results for November 19, 2026. The figures above describe Q2, not a full-year result.
There is no comparable, methodologically transparent 2026 net-profit margin benchmark in the sources cited here that covers eCommerce businesses across business models and product categories. A single “average eCommerce profit margin” would risk comparing businesses with very different costs and sales channels.
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How to tell whether an online store is profitable
Start with the store’s own financial records and use the same accounting period throughout. Revenue is not profit, and gross margin is not the amount the owner ultimately keeps.
- Establish net sales. Start with sales after discounts, refunds, and other adjustments. Do not treat an order total as money retained if some of it was refunded.
- Subtract cost of goods sold (COGS). Include the cost of the products sold and use a consistent method for assigning product costs to the period.
- Calculate gross profit and gross margin. Gross profit is net sales minus COGS. Gross margin is gross profit divided by net sales, expressed as a percentage. Shopify notes that its gross profit and gross margin calculations require COGS to be configured in the platform. Shopify’s eCommerce metrics guide.
- Account for operating expenses. Subtract costs such as advertising, payment processing, shipping and fulfillment, software, labor, and other business expenses. Which costs apply, and how they are classified, depend on the business.
- Assess returns and their costs. Returns can reduce retained sales and create additional costs, including reverse shipping, handling, and losses on goods that cannot be resold at full value. Track what happens to returned products rather than treating every return as the same financial outcome.
- Determine net profit. After all relevant business expenses are accounted for, compare the remaining profit with net sales to calculate a net margin. For a decision about the owner’s actual take-home amount, also consider any taxes, debt payments, or owner compensation relevant to that decision.
For context, Shopify’s 2026 metrics article quotes Armine Alajian, founder and CEO of Alajian Group Inc.: “You can have huge sales and still lose money. Show me the numbers: How much did you spend to make that sale?” This is an attributed business expert’s comment, not a statistical finding.
Why returns and forecasts need context
The National Retail Federation (NRF) and Happy Returns estimated that 19.3% of online sales would be returned in 2025, alongside a projection of $849.9 billion in total retail returns. The online return estimate is industry context based on surveys of consumers and eCommerce professionals at large U.S. merchants; it is not a measured return rate for every store or category. A store’s own return rate and the resale value and handling cost of returned goods matter more to its profit calculation. NRF and Happy Returns, 2025 Retail Returns Landscape.
NRF’s 2026 forecast, produced with Oxford Economics, projected U.S. retail sales growth of 4.4% to $5.6 trillion. That is a forecast for retail overall, not a realized result or a forecast of eCommerce seller profits. NRF’s 2026 retail sales forecast.
What historical Census data can—and cannot—tell you
The Census Bureau’s Annual Retail Trade Survey tables include sales, operating expenses, and gross-margin data, which can provide historical context. The latest revised annual tables listed on its page are for 2022, however, rather than 2026. They cannot establish a current, cross-industry 2026 net-profit margin. Census Annual Retail Trade Survey tables.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.A practical comparison checklist
If you are evaluating a store, a business model, or your own results over time, compare like with like and use a consistent period. Check:
- Gross margin after COGS: Are product costs complete and recorded in the same period as the sales?
- Acquisition and operating costs: How much does it cost to acquire customers, process payments, fulfill orders, and run the business?
- Returns: What share of your orders or sales is returned, and what does each return cost after considering refunds, handling, and resale value?
- Net profit: What remains after all business expenses—not just product costs—are subtracted?
- Consistency: Are you comparing the same sales channels, product categories, accounting periods, and cost definitions?
Category, channel, scale, and cost structure can all change the result. A growing market or a favorable gross margin alone cannot answer whether a particular store is profitable.
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