China’s July 2024 plan was to guide farms to adjust their cattle herds—not impose a fixed nationwide production quota. Officials said ample supplies and weaker buying were pushing beef and raw-milk prices down, leaving producers with losses. Later data and forecasts show that beef and dairy followed different paths, while trade measures became another part of the policy response.
What China announced in July 2024
On July 24, 2024, Reuters reported that China’s agriculture ministry planned to encourage beef and dairy producers to bring herd structure more in line with demand. Chief Animal Husbandry Officer Wang Lejun said farms should “optimize and adjust the herd structure” and “moderately eliminate old and low-yielding cows.” The announcement described herd management, not a numerical national output cap. Reuters report carried by Agriculture.com
The ministry’s stated problem was a market with ample supply as shoppers cut back amid a slowing economy. Livestock production had risen, while beef and raw-milk producers were losing money. China had also been addressing excess capacity in pork and had introduced beef-cattle production rules earlier in 2024, placing the dairy and beef announcement within a broader effort to better align livestock supply with demand.
What the 2024 figures show—and what they do not
China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs reported that, in the first half of 2024, beef prices were down 12.1% year on year and raw-milk prices were down 12.5%. Milk production, meanwhile, rose 3.4% year on year over that same six-month period, according to the ministry figures reported by Reuters. The combination illustrates the supply-demand imbalance officials described: production was increasing even as prices fell.
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Those figures are for the first half of 2024; they do not establish prices today or prove that the herd-adjustment plan caused later changes. A 2025 OECD review subsequently linked livestock capacity gains and weakening domestic demand with downward price pressure and slower imports, offering broader context rather than a direct measurement of the July 2024 policy’s effects. OECD Review of Agricultural Policies: China 2025
How beef and dairy conditions changed afterward
Beef: a lower 2026 outlook, not a final result
In a 2025 report, the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service revised its estimate for China’s 2025 beef production to broadly flat year on year and forecast a decline in 2026. It attributed the lower 2026 outlook mainly to fewer cattle ready for slaughter after breeding-cow inventories fell sharply in 2024. The agency also assessed beef consumption as weak, with no clear signs of recovery. These are USDA estimates, forecasts and analysis—not final official production results. USDA FAS Beijing livestock report
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Dairy: output rose slightly in 2025 as monitored prices fell
A 2026 dairy-company annual report filed with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, citing Chinese official data, said raw-milk output rose 0.3% in 2025. It reported an average raw-milk price of RMB3.06 per kilogram in China’s major dairy-producing provinces, down 7.8% year on year, citing the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs. These figures concern 2025, and the statistics are summarized in the company filing rather than presented here as a direct review of the underlying government releases. HKEX-filed dairy company annual report
Why trade policy became part of the response
Beef imports
On December 31, 2025, China’s Ministry of Commerce said it would apply a three-year safeguard on beef imports. The measure uses country-specific quotas and additional tariffs on imports above those quotas. The ministry said its investigation found that increased imports had caused serious injury to China’s domestic beef industry; that is the government’s finding, not an independently established conclusion in this article. China Ministry of Commerce announcement
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Dairy imports
The 2026 company filing also summarized later dairy policy measures: steps announced in February 2026 to promote dairy consumption and temporary anti-subsidy measures on certain EU dairy products effective from December 23, 2025. This is the filing’s account of government materials; it does not establish the impact of those measures on production, prices or household purchases.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How to read the policy and outlook together
The 2024 herd-adjustment announcement, later production figures, forecasts and trade measures describe different periods and policy tools. They should not be read as one contemporaneous snapshot. To assess what is happening in either market, separate three questions:
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- Supply: Are herds and inventories expanding or contracting, and how many animals are ready for slaughter?
- Demand: Are household and foodservice purchases recovering enough to absorb available output?
- Trade: How do import volumes, country quotas and tariffs affect the supply available to domestic buyers?
The sources available here do not establish realized 2026 beef or dairy prices. In particular, the 2024 price declines should not be presented as current, and USDA’s 2026 beef outlook remains a forecast.
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