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A June 2024 Climate Valuation report identified South Yunderup, Cannington and Baldivis as Western Australian suburbs with homes exposed to flood-related insurance risk. The figures are projections reported by PerthNow on 10 July 2024—not evidence that homes are uninsurable now, or that every property in those suburbs faces the same risk.
What the report said about the three suburbs
PerthNow’s 10 July 2024 account of Climate Valuation’s June 2024 report distinguishes two kinds of findings. South Yunderup and Cannington were included in a red-zone group of 15 Australian suburbs where 50 to 80 per cent of homes were projected to risk becoming uninsurable by 2030. Baldivis was described separately, with a share of analysed homes flagged as at risk.
| Suburb | Reported finding | Risk framing |
|---|---|---|
| Cannington | 5,030 homes, or 71 per cent | Part of the 15-suburb red zone; projected risk of becoming uninsurable by 2030 |
| South Yunderup | 2,520 homes, or 50 per cent | Part of the 15-suburb red zone; projected risk of becoming uninsurable by 2030. The Shire of Murray disputed the risk characterization. |
| Baldivis | About 12 per cent of 17,140 homes analysed | Separately flagged as at risk; the report account describes widespread flooding under a one-in-100-year rainfall scenario. |
These figures are not a like-for-like ranking. The red-zone percentages concern a projection about becoming uninsurable by 2030; the Baldivis figure is reported as the share flagged at risk in a rainfall scenario. The account does not provide enough detail to compare the modelling methods or assumptions behind each figure.
Why “at risk of becoming uninsurable” needs qualification
The report’s headline finding is about projected exposure, not a current insurance decision. The PerthNow account does not establish whether insurance is presently available for any particular property, what cover or premium an insurer might offer, or whether a specific home is inside a flood-prone area.
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Suburb-level percentages also cannot answer an address-level question. Flood exposure can differ between properties, and the reported figures do not identify an individual home’s likely insurance outcome. Nor does the account define precisely what “uninsurable” means in the report.
South Yunderup: the Shire of Murray’s response
A Shire of Murray spokesperson said the report appeared to overstate the flood risk for South Yunderup. The spokesperson said flood modelling had been available since the early 1980s and was periodically reviewed, with the latest review in 2010 accounting for changing rainfall patterns and sea-level-rise allowances associated with climate change.
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The spokesperson also described planning restrictions on new development in the river floodway and requirements for new development in adjacent, lower-lying flood-fringe areas to be built above flood levels. These are the shire’s claims as reported by PerthNow; the account does not independently reconcile them with Climate Valuation’s projection.
What the Baldivis rainfall scenario does—and does not—mean
The PerthNow account says the report described widespread flooding over much of Baldivis under a one-in-100-year rainfall scenario. That phrase refers to a rainfall event with a stated annual probability, not a guarantee that such an event happens only once every 100 years. The article does not supply the scenario’s rainfall amount, modelling inputs, or a map linking affected areas to individual addresses.
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PerthNow also identifies publicly available drainage and flood studies for Baldivis, but its article does not independently assess those maps or establish how they align with the report’s result.
How to use the findings when checking a property
- Check the address, not just the suburb name. Seek relevant local flood or drainage mapping and ask the council how to interpret it for the specific property.
- Ask insurers about the property directly. Confirm whether flood cover is available, what events and exclusions apply, and how the insurer treats the address. A suburb-level forecast does not determine an insurer’s current terms.
- Clarify the evidence behind any risk claim. Ask whether the figure refers to river flooding, rainfall flooding, a future projection, or a particular model scenario.
- Keep timing in view. The reported figures come from a June 2024 report as summarized in a July 2024 news article; they do not establish later updates or present-day insurance conditions.
What remains uncertain
The underlying Climate Valuation report is not reproduced in the PerthNow article. As a result, the article does not establish the report’s full methodology, model inputs, climate scenarios, precise definition of “uninsurable,” or property-level results. It also does not verify current insurance availability or whether the report has since been updated.
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Climate Valuation co-founder Dr Karl Mallon said: “People living in homes at high risk of riverine flooding are there through no fault of their own,” adding, “The challenge therefore is not to find fault but to find solutions.”
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