For Brazil’s 2024/25 soybean season, consultancy estimates pointed to a large crop and substantial exports, but they did not agree on a single production figure. Celeres forecast 170.8 million metric tons of soybeans and 107 million metric tons of exports; StoneX projected 166.2 million metric tons of production and 103 million metric tons of exports, while Agroconsult estimated 172.2 million metric tons of production. These are forecasts reported on December 3, 2024—not estimates for Brazil’s current 2026/27 season.
What consultancies forecast for Brazil’s 2024/25 soybean season
A Reuters report published December 3, 2024, from São Paulo, compared outlooks for Brazil’s 2024/25 soybean crop. The estimates show why it is more accurate to report a range than to describe the consultancies as having reached a consensus. [Reuters, December 3, 2024]
| Publisher | Production estimate | Export estimate | Risk or qualification reported |
|---|---|---|---|
| Celeres | 170.8 million metric tons | 107 million metric tons | No specific risk stated in the reported figures. |
| StoneX | 166.2 million metric tons | 103 million metric tons | It cited dryness in southern Brazil as a crop risk. |
| Agroconsult | 172.2 million metric tons | Not stated in the Reuters report. | No specific risk stated alongside this estimate. |
The table reflects estimates attributed to each consultancy in the December 2024 report. Its figures are not actual final harvest or export totals. The report discussed weather and crop inputs in the context of the 2024/25 outlook; StoneX specifically flagged dryness in southern Brazil.
How those figures compare with Brazil’s current crop outlook
Brazil’s current-season projections concern 2026/27, not 2024/25. In September 2026, the National Supply Company (Conab) estimated soybean production for 2026/27 at 181.64 million metric tons, based on 49.3 million hectares planted. Conab characterized the expected production increase as moderate and the supply-and-demand balance as more adjusted. [Conab grain outlook] [Conab, September 2026]
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That production projection is not directly comparable with the 2024 consultancy forecasts as a measure of what was ultimately harvested: it covers a different season and comes from a different publisher. For broader scale only, Conab’s September 2026 estimate for all Brazilian grains in 2026/27 was 366.6 million metric tons. That total includes crops beyond soybeans and should not be mistaken for a soybean estimate. [Conab, September 2026]
What is known about Brazil’s 2026/27 soybean exports
The cited current-season sources do not establish a numeric Brazilian soybean export estimate for 2026/27. A July 2026 USDA Foreign Agricultural Service summary says exports are expected to reach another record, but the material available does not give a figure. The summary also identifies higher production costs, elevated interest rates and El Niño-related weather concerns as issues for that later outlook. Those risks belong to the 2026/27 assessment, not the December 2024 consultancy forecasts. [USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, July 2026]
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Accordingly, the 107-million- and 103-million-metric-ton export figures in the 2024 report should be read as Celeres and StoneX forecasts for 2024/25 only. They do not answer how much Brazil is expected to export in 2026/27.
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Product prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on Amazon at the time of purchase will apply.
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