Brazil’s wheat outlook worsened through 2026: Conab’s March forecast put the crop at 6.9 million metric tons, the smallest since 2021, but Reuters reported in August that Conab had cut its estimate for the 2026 harvest to 5.8 million tonnes. Farmers are trimming wheat area as input costs and weak margins collide with alternative crops and weather risks. The estimates are forecasts, not final harvest results, and the 2026 harvest figure should not be confused with a separate 2026/27 crop-cycle forecast.
How the wheat forecasts changed
The figures describe different forecast vintages and, in one case, a different crop period. Conab is Brazil’s public agricultural supply agency; Safras & Mercado is a private market consultancy. Their March estimates were close, but the later Conab revision was substantially lower.
| Source and report date | Production estimate | Area estimate | What it refers to |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conab, reported by Reuters, March 13, 2026 | 6.9 million metric tons, 12.3% below the preceding cycle and the smallest since 2021 | 2.32 million hectares, down 5.2% | 2026/27 outlook as described in the March report Reuters, March 13, 2026 |
| Safras & Mercado, reported by Reuters, March 13, 2026 | 6.86 million tons | 1.99 million hectares, 15.5% below the previous season and as much as 40% below four years earlier | 2026/27 harvest outlook, according to Safras & Mercado in the same Reuters report |
| Conab, reported by Reuters, August 13, 2026 | 5.8 million tonnes, revised down from 6 million | Not stated in the Reuters report cited here | 2026 wheat harvest estimate Reuters, August 13, 2026 |
The March report expected planting to begin in April and said harvest usually starts in September. Those were forward-looking timing statements and a seasonal norm, not confirmation of what happened in the 2026 crop. Reuters’ August report put Conab’s 2026 harvest estimate at 5.8 million tonnes; the cited forecasts do not establish the final production result. A Conab outlook page published September 15 and updated October 2 links to 2026/27 outlook material, but its landing-page text does not establish a newer wheat estimate, so a later official figure cannot be confirmed from that page alone: Conab outlook page.
Why farmers are planting less wheat
Input costs are squeezing margins
Wheat’s expected return has weakened relative to production costs. Reuters quoted Safras & Mercado analyst Elcio Bento saying, “The main deterrent is the deterioration between the price of wheat and the cost of inputs.” He singled out nitrogen fertilizer as a source of cost pressure. Reuters’ May follow-up also cited concern about rising fertilizer and fuel costs. When a crop’s expected price does not compensate for costly inputs, growers have a reason to reduce acreage or choose another crop.
Do these 3 things before closing this tab:
1Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problems2Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitches3Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors#1 Best Overall
- USDA CERTIFIED ORGANIC AND NON-GMO: This 16oz (1lb) bag of wheatgrass seeds for planting is organic and is not treated with pesticides. Safe for consumption by both people and pets.
- QUICK AND EASY: Simply soak the seeds, water once per day, and you'll have wheatgrass in just 5-7 days. This 1-pound value bag will provide you an organic wheatgrass seed supply for weeks!
- HEALTHY AND NUTRIENT-DENSE: Our Wheatgrass seeds are packed full of nutrients like Vitamin E, Thiamin, Riboflavin, Niacin, and Vitamin B6, a healthy serving of Zinc and Manganese and more; perfect for juicing into your smoothies or use as a healthy treat for your cat.
- CATS LOVE IT: Also known as cat grass, wheatgrass plants are high in fiber and protein, which aids in digestion and naturally reduces hairballs.
- SATISFACTION GUARANTEED: Made in the USA and 100% Guaranteed to Grow. If you are not satisfied, simply message us and we will send you a Back To The Roots replacement or provide a refund.
Other winter crops compete for land
Wheat is not farmers’ only option for winter acreage. Reuters described competition from other winter crops; USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) identified canola, corn and oats as alternatives in Rio Grande do Sul. In parts of Paraná, some wheat land was expected to shift to second-crop corn. The appeal of an alternative varies by location and expected returns, so a national decline does not mean every farm is making the same decision.
Weather can threaten quality as well as yield
The March outlook cited concern about possible El Niño conditions and excessive rain in the South, which could raise crop-quality risks. In May, Reuters reported expectations that heavier southern rains could also threaten quality. These are risk assessments, not evidence that El Niño or damaging rainfall definitely occurred. Quality matters to buyers and millers as well as the tonnage harvested.
Rank #2
- HARD RED SPRING WHEAT SEED - A versatile grain. The grain seeds are rich flavored with a higher protein content than most other wheat types, and are ideal for grinding and mixing with white winter wheats to improve mixing and dough handling. Blossoms attract pollinators such as bees and other beneficial insects.
- EASY TO GROW, HARVEST, AND ENJOY - A great dual-purpose wheat variety that can be used as a cool season cover crop or food. Grow from spring to fall depending upon intended use. 90-120 days from seed to seed. Annual. Each packet contains a minimum of 200 seeds.
- SEEDS YOU CAN TRUST - Our seeds are certified organic, non-GMO, heirloom, untreated, and open-pollinated. This makes sourcing seed from our company an easy and ethical choice. All our seeds are germination tested for viability to ensure you have a high quality growing experience.
- KNOW THE SOURCE, GROWN IN THE USA - Our company is located in Ojai, California. We take great pride in our plants and are dedicated to bringing you the best quality seeds for your garden. We are in the business of life.
- GREAT CARE, GREAT RESULTS - Our team is dedicated to bringing you only the best selection! We have spent years developing our expertise as seed specialists. Our seeds are tried and true, resulting in better germination rates and hardy harvests! All our seed packets contain complete growing instructions, including optimal planting depth, spacing for best growth, days for germination and harvest, and other seasonal and temperature requirements.
Financing and recent losses affect risk tolerance
Reuters also reported limited credit, costly agricultural insurance and losses in recent harvests as reasons growers may be less willing to take production risks. These pressures can reinforce weak crop economics: a farmer facing constrained financing may be reluctant to fund a crop with uncertain returns, even if wheat prices appear attractive at planting.
The national decline is uneven across regions
Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná are important to Brazil’s wheat outlook, but their acreage decisions do not describe every growing region.
What’s actually slowing this PC down?
Pick the symptom - the matching free tool is one click away.
Rank #3
- CERTIFIED GLYPHOSATE RESIDUE FREE by the detox project.
- HIGH STANDARD OF EXCELLENCE: Palouse Brand foods are Certified Non-GMO Project Verified, Kosher, farmed Sustainably and cleaned in a food safe HACCP Certified facility.
- PROUDLY GROWN ON OUR FARM: Palouse Brand foods are proudly grown on our Washington State farm providing our customers truly authentic farm to table experiences. We grow our foods on our 125+ year old farm, harvest them, transport them, triple clean, and package them to be sent directly to our customers.
- LONG-TERM SHELF LIFE: Through food safety regulations we provide a Best By date of 3 years. However, when stored in an air-tight container, in a cool, dry location, Palouse Brand foods can last decades.
- Product packaging may vary.
| Region | Reported 2026 outlook | Local context |
|---|---|---|
| Rio Grande do Sul | Conab forecast 3 million tonnes, down 15% from the previous cycle, with 1 million hectares planted, down 10% from 2025, according to USDA FAS’s 2026 Brazil report | Canola, corn and oats were among the alternative crops cited |
| Paraná | DERAL expected 2026 area to fall below the 824,000 hectares harvested in 2025, according to USDA FAS | Some land was expected to move into second-crop corn |
| Cerrado | USDA FAS described 2026 area as stable near 290,000 hectares | Good profitability from the 2025 harvest supported a different outlook |
The regional estimates come from USDA FAS’s 2026 Brazil Grain and Feed Annual. They show why “farmers slash planting” should be read as a broad trend rather than a uniform national response: local returns, crop alternatives and conditions differ.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What a smaller crop could mean for imports
Brazil produces significant quantities of wheat but does not meet all domestic demand from its own crop. In a May Reuters report, Abitrigo CEO Rubens Barbosa estimated 7 million tonnes of imports in 2026, while Safras & Mercado forecast more than 8 million tonnes for the 2026/27 crop cycle. Those are separate attributed forecasts for different periods, not a single agreed import figure. Barbosa also said mills expected to import 1 million to 1.5 million metric tons from outside Mercosur, the South American trade bloc.
Rank #4
- Organic Wheatgrass Seeds
- Premium USA Grown & Certified Wheat Grass Seed
- Bulk Bag of 5 Pounds of Wheatgrass Seed
- Organic Wheat Berries for sprouting, baking, food storage
- Our Wheatgrass Seeds are Guaranteed to Grow
Market participants discussed possible changes in sourcing, not a settled shift. Reuters reported concerns that quality issues in some Argentine wheat could encourage buyers to look to the United States and Russia. Argentina’s exporters’ chamber head Gustavo Idigoras countered that Argentina still had exportable wheat meeting bread-wheat standards for traditional markets such as Brazil. The balance of imports and suppliers will depend on crop quality, prices and trade decisions; the reported views do not establish which origins Brazil ultimately bought.
Quick Recap
Best Value
- CERTIFIED GLYPHOSATE RESIDUE FREE by the detox project.
- HIGH STANDARD OF EXCELLENCE: Palouse Brand foods are Certified Non-GMO Project Verified, Kosher, farmed Sustainably and cleaned in a food safe HACCP Certified facility.
- PROUDLY GROWN ON OUR FARM: Palouse Brand foods are proudly grown on our Washington State farm providing our customers truly authentic farm to table experiences. We grow our foods on our 125+ year old farm, harvest them, transport them, triple clean, and package them to be sent directly to our customers.
- LONG-TERM SHELF LIFE: Through food safety regulations we provide a Best By date of 3 years. However, when stored in an air-tight container, in a cool, dry location, Palouse Brand foods can last decades.
- Product packaging may vary.
What the forecast does—and does not—tell you
- It is a forecast, not a harvest tally. Conab’s August 5.8-million-ton estimate was for the 2026 wheat crop; it should not be presented as confirmed final output.
- Crop labels matter. The March report discussed the 2026/27 outlook, while the August report described Conab’s estimate for the 2026 harvest. Forecasts for those periods should not be combined as though they were interchangeable.
- Production and planted area are different measures. A lower area estimate can contribute to a smaller crop, but yields and crop conditions also affect output.
- Market effects remain uncertain. Import estimates and sourcing expectations are statements from named organizations and industry participants, not guaranteed outcomes.
Product prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on Amazon at the time of purchase will apply.
