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Brazil’s 2025 Second Corn Crop Forecast to Hit Record 123.3 Million Tonnes

Agroconsult’s June 2025 forecast put Brazil’s 2024/25 second corn crop at a record 123.3 million metric tons. The estimate reflected larger planted area and favorable weather, while raising concerns about transport capacity, prices and slow sales.
From TheFinanceBase Team2 min to read
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Brazil was expected to harvest a record 123.3 million metric tons of second-crop corn in 2025, according to an Agroconsult forecast reported by Reuters on June 25, as harvesting was underway. The forecast described the 2024/25 crop—not Brazil’s later 2025/26 season—and pointed to a bumper harvest with implications for exports, transport and farm sales.

How much second-crop corn was Brazil forecast to produce?

Agroconsult forecast 123.3 million metric tons for Brazil’s 2024/25 second corn crop. Reuters reported the estimate on June 25, 2025, based on field surveys across key growing regions. It was a forecast during harvest, not a final measured production total. Reuters said the second crop was expected to account for about 80% of Brazil’s corn output that year and to be mainly exported in the second half, when it would compete with U.S. suppliers. Reuters via Successful Farming/Agriculture.com

What is Brazil’s second corn crop?

Brazil typically harvests two corn crops each year. The first, or summer crop, is followed by safrinha, the second crop planted in many of the same areas after soybeans are harvested. USDA Economic Research Service says safrinha means “little harvest” in Portuguese and can make up as much as 75% of Brazil’s total corn production. The share varies by season; Reuters reported Agroconsult’s estimate of about 80% for the 2025 outlook. USDA Economic Research Service, Feed Outlook: March 2026

What supported the record 2025 forecast?

Agroconsult reported that farmers planted 18.1 million hectares to second-crop corn, 5.7% more than in the previous season. In Mato Grosso, the average yield was reported at 131.9 bags per hectare, nearly 12% higher year over year. Reuters attributed stronger yields in key states to favorable weather, especially abundant rains through April and May. Reuters via Successful Farming/Agriculture.com

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Agroconsult head André Pessoa called it “the mother of all safrinhas,” a colorful description of that crop, not an official classification. Pessoa also said China had been “out of the market for some time”; that was his comment in the June 2025 report, not a statement of current demand. Reuters via Successful Farming/Agriculture.com

Why can a record harvest still be difficult for farmers?

A large crop can increase pressure on the systems needed to move grain from farms to ports. Reuters noted that the expected harvest could strain transport infrastructure. It also reported concern among farmers about unattractive prices and slow sales. A production record therefore does not by itself establish how much farmers will earn: market prices, sales timing and the ability to transport grain all matter. Reuters via Successful Farming/Agriculture.com

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How does the 2025 forecast compare with the later 2025/26 season?

Later estimates refer to a different crop year and should not be read as revisions to Agroconsult’s 2024/25 forecast. Conab’s 2025/26 second-crop estimate rose between August and September 2026, but remained below the preceding season’s output:

Estimate date and source 2025/26 second crop Total 2025/26 corn crop Year-over-year context
August 13, 2026; Conab, as reported by Reuters 111.03 million tonnes 142.96 million tonnes Second crop forecast 1.9% lower
September 15, 2026; Conab, as reported by Reuters 112.1 million tonnes 144 million tonnes Second crop estimate 1% lower

Conab attributed the September increase to second-crop yields exceeding expectations. These Conab estimates are not directly interchangeable with Agroconsult’s earlier forecast: they concern another season and come from a different source and estimate date. Reuters via UOL Economia, August 13, 2026; Reuters via Investing.com, September 15, 2026

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