Argentina’s Rosario grains exchange forecast in September 2025 that grain and byproduct exports could total 105.1 million metric tons in the 2025/26 season, a potential record—not a confirmed final result. The estimate combined grains and oilseeds with oils and meals. The exchange also projected US$34.8 billion in agricultural export value, illustrating why a record in shipment volume would not necessarily mean higher export earnings.
What did the exchange forecast?
Reuters reported on September 19, 2025, that the Rosario grains exchange expected Argentina to export 105.1 million metric tons of grains and byproducts in the 2025/26 season. That would exceed the 101.6 million tons reported for the preceding season and the previous record of 104.1 million tons in 2018/19. The 105.1-million-ton figure was a forecast, so it should be described as a potential record rather than a record already achieved. Reuters’ September 2025 report gives the comparison.
The exchange’s preliminary campaign outlook also projected 146.4 million metric tons of production and US$34.8 billion in agricultural exports, based on estimated planted area and trend yields. These are separate measures: production is the expected crop output, exports are the forecast quantity shipped abroad, and export value is the estimated revenue. The Rosario Board of Trade’s outlook provides the campaign context.
What products make up the export estimate?
The forecast totaled two broad product groups. Reuters reported 64.7 million metric tons of grains and oilseeds, plus 40.4 million metric tons of oils and meals. Corn accounted for 62% of the grains-and-oilseeds group. Most of the oils and meals were soybean-derived. Reuters’ breakdown describes those categories; it does not provide a separate tonnage in the cited figures for soybean meal or soybean oil.
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Would more exports mean more revenue?
Not necessarily. The exchange’s preliminary outlook put agricultural export value at US$34.8 billion, while Reuters reported that the larger projected export volume was expected to generate about the same foreign-currency revenue as the previous season because international grain prices were lower. The tonnage forecast and the dollar-value estimate answer different questions: a country can ship more product without receiving more money if prices fall or the product mix changes.
What later figures say—and what they do not show
Later reports provide evidence about shipments, but they use different products, time periods, or statistical categories. They do not by themselves confirm whether the full 105.1-million-ton seasonal forecast was met.
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| Figure | Period and scope | What it establishes |
|---|---|---|
| More than 16.2 million metric tons of wheat exports; more than 1.05 million tons shipped in September | 2025/26 wheat cycle, cumulative through September 2026; Rosario Board of Trade update dated October 2, 2026 | The exchange said cumulative wheat shipments exceeded 90% of its then-current 18-million-ton wheat estimate. This is wheat-only evidence, not a final total for all grains and byproducts. Rosario Board of Trade wheat update. |
| 60.7 million metric tons | First half of 2026; grain and industrial-derivative exports reported by the Rosario Board of Trade | A shipment figure for that half-year and category, not the same measure as the full-season forecast. Rosario Board of Trade’s first-half report. |
| 115.41 million metric tons | Calendar year 2025; agro-industrial exports, reported by Argentina’s Secretariat of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries using INDEC statistics | A broader national category over a calendar year, not a directly comparable 2025/26 grains-and-byproducts seasonal total. Secretariat release on 2025 exports. |
| 53 million metric tons | January–May 2026; agro-industrial exports, reported by Argentina’s Secretariat of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries using INDEC statistics | A partial-year total in the broader agro-industrial category. It should not be treated as a full-season grain-and-byproduct figure. Secretariat release on January–May 2026. |
These figures can help track activity, but a valid check against the 105.1-million-ton forecast would require a final total with matching season dates and product coverage. The wheat update covers one crop; the half-year grain-and-derivative series covers a different interval; and the government’s agro-industrial totals use a broader category and calendar-based reporting periods.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Why the forecast matters
The exchange’s estimate pointed to a high-volume export season, with corn central to grain and oilseed shipments and soybean-derived products making up most of the oils-and-meals category. Reuters described Argentina at the time as the world’s top exporter of soybean oil and meal and the third-largest corn exporter; those rankings are context from its September 2025 report, not timeless standings. For readers following Argentina’s foreign-currency earnings, the key distinction is that the forecast’s potential volume record did not imply a corresponding increase in export value.
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