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What the Yes and No prices mean
Kalshi describes a contract’s price in relation to the market-assigned likelihood of its outcome. In its illustrative example, a market-assigned 70% likelihood corresponds to a 70¢ Yes price and a 30¢ No price. That is an explanation of pricing, not a live quote for a Gold contract or an independently verified forecast. Kalshi’s pricing guide explains the relationship.
As a quick reading aid, a 63¢ price can be described as roughly 63% market-implied pricing for that side. Keep the qualification: it is a price signal produced by trading, not certainty that the event will happen. The displayed figure also needs context: identify whether it is for Yes or No and whether the screen is showing a graph value, bid, ask, or another market-price measure.
How to interpret the Price Graph
The Price Graph shows how contract pricing has changed over time. If the Yes price rises, the market is pricing the Yes outcome higher than before; if it falls, the market is pricing it lower. The line does not, by itself, explain why traders changed their views, establish an absolute probability, or prove that gold itself moved in the same direction.
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Kalshi’s Price Graph guidance says the displayed percentages “Instead, they represent the consensus beliefs of market participants about how likely they think an event is to occur.” The page cautions that these are not absolute probabilities. For a Gold market, the graph concerns the chance of meeting that contract’s specific rule—not a general forecast that gold will rise or fall.
Read the order book before treating a price as tradable
A chart value does not tell you how many contracts are available at that price. The order book shows quotes and quantities:
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- Bid: the highest price a buyer is currently willing to pay.
- Ask: the lowest price a seller is currently willing to accept.
- Spread: the difference between the bid and ask.
- Quantity: the contracts available at a quoted price level.
Kalshi’s order-book guide describes these quotes and the quantities at each level. A displayed chart point should not be assumed to be an immediately available price for an order of any size.
Order size and depth can affect execution. Kalshi says a Quick Order that exceeds the quantity available at the best level may fill across multiple price levels, producing a different average execution price. In other words, the average you receive can differ from the latest or representative chart price. The live order book—not a historical market page—shows current depth. See Kalshi’s Quick Orders explanation.
What actually resolves a short-term Gold contract
Do not infer settlement from the chart or from a broad reading of “gold goes up.” Each contract’s rules define the event and how its result is verified. Kalshi’s Market Rules guidance says the market rules identify the outcome verification source.
One historical Gold 15 min example resolves Yes if the close of a specified one-minute Pyth Gold candle is at or above the contract’s target. In that example, the settlement value is rounded to two decimal places. A candle labeled 4:59 PM covers 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM and closes at 5:00:00 PM; if the named source has no publication for that time, the rules specify using the most recently available published data. These are terms of that example contract, not universal rules for all Gold markets. The example market page contains its own contract details.
For the market you are viewing, open the current rules and check the following before relying on a chart move:
- The exact target price and Yes/No wording.
- The observation time and time zone.
- The named gold price series or verification source.
- Which candle interval and close determine the result.
- Any rounding rule or provision for missing source data.
Keep target, final value, and resolution separate
These are related but distinct parts of settlement:
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- Target: the threshold the observed value must meet or exceed, if that is how the contract is worded.
- Final value: the value used under the contract’s specified observation and any rounding rule.
- Resolution: the Yes or No result after applying the contract rule to the final value and target.
The historical example page presents target, final value, and resolved side as separate fields; its displayed No result follows from a final value below the target. That is an illustration of how those fields relate, not a current quote or a template for every Gold contract. Check the example page’s terms and the rules on the live market you intend to read.
Quick Recap
A practical reading sequence
- Read the contract wording and rules. Confirm the event, threshold, data source, timestamp, candle close, and settlement details.
- Identify the side and display. Establish whether the number is Yes or No and whether it is a graph value, bid, or ask.
- Use the graph as a record of changing prices. Read a rise or fall as a change in market pricing, not proof of an underlying gold move or a certain outcome.
- Check bid, ask, and quantities. Compare available quotes and depth with the size you are considering; do not assume the chart price is executable for your whole order.
- After settlement, compare the rule with the reported result. The target, final value, and resolution answer different questions.
Product prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on Amazon at the time of purchase will apply.
