Higher borrowing costs can make a commercial real-estate loan difficult to refinance when it matures, especially if property income or value has fallen or lenders have tightened terms. That can force a borrower to add equity, seek an extension, restructure, or sell. But scheduled maturities are not failed deals, and the available U.S. data do not count transactions “blown up” by rate changes. The pressure is significant and uneven, not proof that every property or deal is in trouble.
How can higher rates disrupt a commercial real-estate deal?
The refinance has to work against today’s numbers
When an income property loan comes due, the borrower generally must repay it, refinance it, sell the property, or negotiate an extension or restructuring. A new lender looks at the property and loan under current conditions: income available for debt service, estimated value, occupancy and lease prospects, and the lender’s limits for loan-to-value, debt-service coverage and debt yield.
If borrowing costs are higher than when the existing loan was made, a given income stream may support less debt because more of that income is needed to service the new loan. A weaker valuation or tighter underwriting can further reduce the amount a lender will advance. If new proceeds do not cover the old loan’s payoff, the borrower may need to contribute equity, negotiate with the lender, sell, or be unable to repay at maturity. Which outcome applies depends on the individual property, loan and borrower.
A hard maturity is not the same as an immediate default
A refinancing gap can make a transaction harder to complete or change its economics without automatically causing a default. Borrowers and lenders may agree to an extension or restructuring; the borrower may put in more equity or sell the asset. The Federal Reserve’s April 2025 account describes borrowers who had not secured refinancing amid tight lending standards, reduced valuations and rates above those in effect when much of the debt was originated. It also says CMBS office-maturity delinquencies remained elevated by historical standards despite a marked decline. Federal Reserve, April 2025.
#1 Best Overall
- DEDICATED FUNCTION KEYS for Quick Financial Solutions: Clearly labeled function keys enable you to quickly and confidently provide financial answers and options for your clients, whether in the office, in the car or at an open house. Compare loan options and provide payment solutions to give your client choices
- INSTANT FINANCIAL PROBLEM SOLVING: Solve the financial questions your clients have whether they are buyers, investors or renters; increase your perceived professionalism and close more home sales by quickly answering real estate finance problems including remaining balances
- RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE FINANCE TERMS: Keys labeled in residential real estate finance terms like Loan AMT, Int, Term, PMT; Calculator is super easy to use to determine a mortgage loan that works for your client
- VERSATILE LOAN CALCULATION OPTIONS: Calculate 80:10:10 or 80:15:5 combo loans at the press of a button; check to see if ARMs or bi-weekly loans, quarterly payments or if interest-only payments are the answer; giving your client more choices
- COMES COMPLETE: Comes with a protective slide cover, quick reference guide, pocket user's guide, two long-life batteries, and 1-year warranty
How much commercial real-estate debt is maturing in 2026?
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) estimated that $875 billion in commercial and multifamily mortgage balances was scheduled to mature in 2026 and $652 billion in 2027. These are MBA estimates published February 9, 2026, for unpaid principal balances as of December 31, 2025. The MBA notes that balances will generally be lower by maturity because borrowers typically pay down principal over the life of a loan. MBA, 2026.
| Scheduled maturity year | MBA estimate | Measurement basis |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $875 billion | Unpaid principal balances as of December 31, 2025; published February 9, 2026 |
| 2027 | $652 billion | Unpaid principal balances as of December 31, 2025; published February 9, 2026 |
These figures describe scheduled maturities, not the amount certain to be refinanced dollar-for-dollar, a forecast of defaults, or a count of deals that will fail. The available figures do not establish how many loans in this cohort will be refinanced, extended, paid down, sold under pressure or default.
Rank #2
- Loan Amortization and Remaining Balances
- Instant Principal, Interest, Interest Only and Total Payments
- Future Values
- Date math function
Which property types face the most refinancing pressure?
The MBA’s 2026 survey reports the share of each property type’s mortgage balances scheduled to mature in 2026. The percentages show when balances come due; they do not by themselves measure the likelihood that a borrower will be distressed.
| Property type | Share of that type’s mortgage balances scheduled to mature in 2026 |
|---|---|
| Hotel/motel | 30% |
| Industrial | 23% |
| Office | 17% |
| Health care | 15% |
| Multifamily | 13% |
All percentages are from the MBA’s 2026 report, released February 9, 2026; they refer to each property category’s mortgage balances scheduled to mature in 2026. MBA maturity survey. Property-sector percentages alone do not rank actual borrower distress: local demand, property income, loan terms and access to equity also shape a refinance.
Do these 3 things before closing this tab:
1Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minute2Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors3Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesRank #3
- PROFESSIONAL FINANCIAL CALCULATOR : Built-in TVM, IRR, NPV. Engineered for business analysts, real estate investors, accountants, and finance students.
- ADVANCED CASH FLOW & AMORTIZATION : Execute time value of money, break-even analysis, depreciation schedules, and bond pricing. Trusted for professional exam prep", MBA coursework, and banking certifications.
- CATIGA CF-300 : Flip-open hard case with a snap-close design for a secure fit. Compact and portable: designed for daily professional use in office, classroom, or on-site.
- ALL-IN-ONE FOR PROFESSIONALS : From NPV/IRR for real estate analysis to statistical calculations for business analysts. Handles probability, linear regression, and complex financial formulas.
- MORTGAGE, LOAN & INVESTMENT CALCULATOR : Covers bond pricing, loan amortization, investment analysis, and exam-level computations. Your go-to accounting calculator, business calculator, and real estate calculator in one device.
Why is office refinancing a particular concern?
Office borrowers can face the rate-and-maturity squeeze at the same time as challenges to property income and value. The FDIC’s 2026 Risk Review says high operating costs, elevated interest rates and elevated vacancy challenged some borrowers’ ability to refinance or repay commercial real-estate debt. It reports office vacancy of 14.0% at year-end 2025, four basis points above its 2024 level. This is the vacancy measure cited in that FDIC report—not a local vacancy rate or a direct measure of loan delinquency. FDIC, 2026 Risk Review.
A national vacancy statistic cannot determine whether a particular building can retain tenants, raise rents or cover expenses. For an individual office loan, the relevant questions include the building’s occupancy, lease expirations, tenant demand, expected operating costs and the income available to support debt service. Those property-level facts determine how a broad market concern translates into the borrower’s refinance options.
Rank #4
- SPEAKS YOUR LANGUAGE: Keys clearly labeled in residential mortgage finance terms like Loan AMT, Int, Term, PMT. This industry-standard calculator is super easy to use on all realty financing matters from finding a loan that works for your client to considering trust deeds investments, or finding remaining balances or balloon payments and much more
- CONFIDENTLY AND EASILY SOLVES: All your clients' financial questions whether they are buyers, sellers, investors or renters. Increase your perceived professionalism as a new agent, experienced broker or seasoned loan officer. Close more home sales and impress your clients with fast, accurate answers to all their real estate finance questions
- DEDICATED BUYER QUALIFYING KEYS: Enter client's income, debt and expenses to pre-qualify them to only show properties they can afford. Include tax, insurance and mortgage insurance then compare loan options and payment solutions to give your client choices before they make an offer to buy
- FIGURE OUT THE RIGHT LOAN: At the press of a button for jumbo, conventional, FHA/VA, or even 80:10:10 or 80:15:5 combo loans; check to see if ARMs or bi-weekly loans, quarterly payments or if interest-only payments are the answer; giving your client more choices; easily perform what if loan or tvm calculations Find loan amount, term, interest or PITI or PI payments
- BECOME AN INVALUABLE RESOURCE: Reduce your clients' confusion and uncertainty; ensuring they are able to make a purchase offer; knowing they can afford the down payment; and determining which is the right loan for them. Date-math for listings and contracts too. Comes with a protective slide cover, quick reference guide, pocket User's Guide, and long-life batteries
What determines whether a particular loan can be refinanced?
Borrowers, lenders and investors can use the following factors to assess refinance risk. No single maturity date or property-sector statistic answers the question on its own.
- Maturity and rate structure: When does the loan come due, and is it fixed-rate, floating-rate or subject to a reset? A reset can change debt service before final maturity.
- Property income: What are current net operating income and occupancy? Are leases rolling over, and are rents or operating costs expected to change?
- Value and loan proceeds: What value will a new lender use, and how do the likely refinance proceeds compare with the existing payoff?
- Underwriting: Does the loan meet current lender assumptions for loan-to-value, debt-service coverage and debt yield?
- Loan holder and structure: Is the debt held by a bank, packaged in CMBS or another securitization, agency-backed, held by a life insurer, or provided by another lender? The available options and process can differ by capital source.
- Borrower options: Can the borrower contribute equity, and is an extension, restructuring or sale feasible?
- Local property market: How do local leasing conditions and comparable values affect this asset? A national sector average cannot settle a building-specific underwriting decision.
Trepp’s September 2026 analysis of CMBS hard maturities uses debt-yield thresholds as one way to identify loans with refinance risk, while cautioning that the measures do not themselves indicate existing distress. That is a useful distinction: an underwriting screen can flag exposure without proving a loan will fail. Trepp, September 2026.
Recommended Free Tools
Do the maturity figures mean the whole CRE market is collapsing?
No. The Federal Reserve’s November 2025 Financial Stability Report said commercial real-estate prices and fundamentals showed signs of stabilization, while warning that unsuccessful refinancing could lead to distressed sales and price pressure. Federal Reserve, November 2025. The FDIC’s 2026 review also notes that rising property values accompanied increased bank, CMBS and private-credit financing. These aggregate signs of stabilization can coexist with serious difficulties for particular loans, buildings or borrowers.
Commenting on the MBA survey released February 9, 2026, MBA Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni said: “The data from this survey show that 2025 was a transition year, with the maturity wall shrinking after several years where the wall of scheduled maturities had been increasing. Even though longer-term interest rates were little changed over the course of the year, lenders were no longer simply extending loan terms,” according to the MBA report. His characterization describes the survey’s maturity pattern; it does not establish how every maturing loan will be resolved.
Quick Recap
Product prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on Amazon at the time of purchase will apply.
