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1Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problems2Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minute3Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsPenn Wharton Budget Model (PWBM) estimates that seven Social Security reform packages would prevent combined trust fund depletion through 2100 and approximately close the program’s 75-year funding shortfall. Their modeled effects are not alike: PWBM projects 2060 GDP ranging from 0.4% to 12.1% above its dynamic baseline, depending on the package. These are conditional model estimates—not observed results or guarantees—and the growth figures alone do not show who pays or benefits.
What PWBM estimates the reforms would do
In its September 21, 2026 analysis, “Seven Social Security Reform Packages: Effects on Growth and Generations”, PWBM finds that each of seven modeled packages avoids combined Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Disability Insurance (OASDI) trust fund depletion through 2100. The packages approximately close a 75-year shortfall that the September brief puts at 4.78% of taxable payroll.
That is a solvency result over a defined horizon, not a claim that every package produces the same economic or household outcome. PWBM’s 2060 GDP estimates range from 0.4% above its dynamic baseline under Package A to 12.1% above that baseline under Package F. The comparison is between modeled GDP levels in 2060 under each package and the model’s baseline for that same year; it is not an annual growth rate or a forecast of what GDP will actually be.
Why the baseline date matters
The September reform analysis uses a 4.78% of taxable payroll estimate for its 75-year baseline shortfall. That figure should not be substituted for the separate estimates in PWBM’s June outlook or in the Social Security Trustees Report.
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| Estimate | What it refers to |
|---|---|
| 4.78% of taxable payroll | PWBM’s September 2026 reform brief baseline for the 75-year shortfall that its packages approximately close. |
| 4.65% of taxable payroll | PWBM’s June 11, 2026 outlook estimate of the 75-year deficit under that outlook’s baseline. |
| 4.42% of taxable payroll | The 2026 Social Security Trustees Report estimate, as reported in PWBM’s June comparison. |
| February 2035 | PWBM’s June outlook projection for depletion of the combined OASDI trust funds under its baseline. |
| February 2033 | PWBM’s June outlook projection for depletion of the OASI trust fund under its baseline. |
The depletion dates are baseline projections, not the result for the seven September reform packages. PWBM’s June outlook says its headline depletion and shortfall estimates are similar to the Trustees’ projections despite differences in demographic paths. That comparison provides context, not certainty about either forecast.
How to compare the seven packages
The headline GDP range is not enough to choose between reforms. A useful comparison keeps solvency, economic output, federal finances, and household welfare separate:
- Solvency and horizon: All seven packages avoid combined trust fund depletion through 2100 in PWBM’s model, and approximately close the September brief’s 75-year shortfall. The result does not establish that each package has the same annual balance at every point in that period.
- Growth: Compare each package’s modeled 2060 GDP effect with the dynamic baseline for 2060. The reported range spans 0.4% under Package A to 12.1% under Package F; it should not be applied to every package.
- Fiscal path: Packages differ in tax increases and benefit reductions, as well as in how quickly annual balances change. The timing of those changes and their effects on federal debt matter alongside the long-run solvency result.
- Distribution: PWBM reports lifetime-welfare effects by household cohort and income quintile. A GDP increase does not mean every generation or income group gains, so distributional effects belong in the comparison.
The available summary establishes the overall range and broad differences among packages, but does not provide verified package-by-package provisions or precise cohort results. It therefore supports the high-level comparison above, not a detailed ranking of which reform is best for a particular household.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What a model projection can—and cannot—tell you
PWBM’s June outlook describes its approach as a bottom-up microsimulation that starts with individual earnings histories and family structures, then reconciles demographic, labor-market, capital-market, and economic paths within the model. Projections depend on those assumptions and the specified baseline. They are useful for examining how alternative policies may affect solvency, output, fiscal balances, and groups of households under a consistent framework; they are not measurements of future outcomes.
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For readers assessing a reform proposal, the practical takeaway is to ask both whether it closes the funding gap over the stated horizon and how it distributes the adjustments across taxes, benefits, generations, and income groups. A single GDP figure cannot answer those questions.
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