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Chainalysis estimates that at least $176.3 billion in crypto activity was attributed to China from July 2025 through June 2026, with domestic peer-to-peer (P2P) transfers accounting for 59.1% of that estimate. The figures point to substantial activity despite China’s restrictions—but they are an analytics-company estimate of attributed on-chain flows, not an official government statistic, a count of Chinese crypto owners, or proof that every transaction occurred inside mainland China.
What does the $176 billion China crypto figure actually measure?
Chainalysis’s October 2026 East Asia adoption report estimates at least $176.3 billion in China-attributed crypto activity during its July 2025–June 2026 measurement period. The company says the true total may be higher and notes that the ban makes China-attributed flows difficult to track. Its figure reflects activity identified through available blockchain data and attribution methods; it is not a census of users or an official national account. Attribution to China does not establish that every flow happened within mainland China.
The estimate also does not say how many people hold crypto, how much wealth households have in it, or why users transact. It describes estimated on-chain activity over a defined period, not a measure of net investment or a tally of unique residents.
How are people in China still using crypto if it’s banned?
Chainalysis attributes 59.1% of the estimated China total to domestic P2P activity—wallet-to-wallet transfers rather than flows through centralized exchanges. The firm says that share was 3.5 times the prior period’s share. Its figures suggest crypto activity can continue through P2P channels even where access to exchange services is restricted; they do not establish the legal status of any particular transfer or user.
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A separate Chainalysis metric tracks unique wallets sending stablecoin P2P transactions: that count rose 43-fold between Q1 2024 and Q2 2026. This wallet-count comparison spans a different period and measures a different thing from the $176.3 billion activity estimate. It should not be read as a 43-fold increase in dollar volume, people, or ownership.
The report also says observed stablecoin P2P activity increased month over month for 13 consecutive periods, beginning around March 2025. Monthly incremental activity rose from roughly $240 million that March to nearly $5 billion about a year later. Those are observed flow estimates; blockchain data alone do not identify users’ motives or establish the legality of each transaction. Chainalysis’s East Asia report describes its estimates and methodology.
What does China’s current crypto policy prohibit?
An eight-agency notice published by the China Securities Regulatory Commission on February 6, 2026, reaffirms that virtual currencies do not have legal-tender status. The notice says covered virtual-currency business activities conducted in China constitute illegal financial activity, are strictly prohibited, and are to be shut down. The notice states: “虚拟货币不具有与法定货币等同的法律地位。” (“Virtual currencies do not have legal status equivalent to legal tender.”)
The notice names these covered activities:
- Exchanging fiat currency for virtual currency or one virtual currency for another;
- acting as a central counterparty in virtual-currency transactions;
- providing transaction-information intermediation or pricing services;
- issuing tokens or financing through tokens; and
- transacting in virtual-currency-related financial products.
It also bars financial institutions and non-bank payment providers from furnishing accounts, transfers, clearing, or settlement for such activity, and restricts internet companies from providing online venues, promotion, or paid referrals. The notice continues a policy line formalized in earlier notices, including the 2021 notice, as the official February 6, 2026 notice and its official Q&A explain. The policy should not be compressed into a claim that every individual holding or transaction, regardless of conduct or location, is treated identically.
Are Chinese users buying stablecoins peer to peer?
Chainalysis reports substantial stablecoin turnover in its China-attributed sample. It estimates self-custodied stablecoin holdings turned over 33.2 times per year, compared with a 9.3-times global benchmark. For the 2026 measurement period, it reports average holdings of $3.1 billion and $104.1 billion transferred across 18.1 million transactions.
That combination of reported holdings and transfers is consistent with stablecoins being used as working capital or settlement assets, which is Chainalysis’s interpretation of the flow pattern. Turnover does not prove that stablecoins are widely accepted as domestic currency, and it does not independently establish the legality or scale of a payment channel.
For context, Chainalysis’s estimated annual stablecoin turnover rates for other East Asian markets were Japan 9.9 times, Hong Kong 6.1, South Korea 5.1, and Taiwan 3.5, against China’s 33.2 and the report’s global benchmark of 9.3. These are company estimates, not official national measures; the structural contrast is high reported turnover in China alongside a large P2P share, versus markets where supervised exchange or institutional channels operate.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Did China’s social-credit system cause crypto use to rise?
That is not established. Chainalysis notes that stablecoin P2P activity began rising around March 2025, when social-credit measures expanded into finance and the internet. It proposes that some people excluded from conventional financial services may seek alternatives, while others may prefer channels outside monitored banking or e-commerce systems. The report explicitly describes this connection as a working hypothesis, not a demonstrated cause.
On-chain flow data can show patterns in transactions, but do not reveal users’ identities, motives, or the effect of a particular policy. The timing and proposed explanation are not proof that social-credit controls caused the growth.
Is the $16.1 billion laundering figure part of the China estimate?
No. Chainalysis separately estimated that identified Chinese-language money-laundering networks processed $16.1 billion in 2025 across more than 1,799 active wallets. That figure concerns inflows to identified illicit services; it is neither a component nor a correction of the $176.3 billion China-attributed crypto-economy estimate. “Chinese-language” networks are not synonymous with all residents of China, and the separate statistic does not characterize ordinary P2P activity as illicit. Chainalysis’s laundering-network report discusses that distinct measure.
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